Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MFG)

Price$11.00Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-30 02:50 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkStrong earnings justify much of the price, leaving limited evidence of a clear bargain.

The observed market value is roughly $124 billion. Against Mizuho's raised profit forecast of about ¥1.4 trillion, or roughly $8.6 billion using the company's cited conversion, the shares trade near 14 to 15 times expected earnings. The supplied SEC history also shows about ¥10.9 trillion of shareholder equity, putting the market value around 1.7 times book value, meaning assets minus liabilities. Those levels are not extreme given rising profitability, but they already require today's stronger Japanese banking conditions to remain broadly favorable.

Big pictureProfits have improved sharply as higher Japanese interest rates restored healthier lending economics.

The supplied SEC history shows net income rising to ¥1.16 trillion in fiscal 2026, almost double fiscal 2025 and far above the losses reported in fiscal 2022 and 2023. Cash flow is less useful for judging a bank because customer deposits, securities purchases, and lending naturally create large swings; fiscal 2026 operating cash flow was negative despite strong profit. More important, first-quarter profit later rose 45% to ¥422.9 billion as domestic lending spreads widened, and management raised its annual profit forecast to ¥1.4 trillion.

Business strengthMizuho has strong regulatory capital and is returning more money directly to shareholders.

Mizuho's common equity Tier 1 ratio reached 13.51% in June 2026, up from 13.16% in March. This ratio measures a bank's highest-quality loss-absorbing capital against risk-weighted assets, so the increase supports resilience and shareholder distributions. Management plans a ¥150 annual dividend, its sixth consecutive increase, and doubled the fiscal 2026 buyback authorization to ¥200 billion; repurchased shares will be cancelled, reducing dilution. The supplied history likewise shows ¥368.7 billion of dividends and ¥404.3 billion of buybacks in fiscal 2026, a major step up from earlier years.

What could change the storyFurther rate-driven gains could lift value, but weaker spreads would expose today's demanding assumptions.

The strongest bull case is that Japanese rates continue normalizing without a major credit downturn. Mizuho's domestic loan spread already increased to 1.26% from 1.10%, while first-quarter non-interest income rose about 20%, giving earnings two engines. The bear case is that these benefits prove cyclical: slower loan demand, higher credit losses, or falling market activity could pull profit back toward prior levels. At roughly 14 to 15 times forecast earnings and above book value, the current price leaves less room for disappointment than it did before the recent profit surge.

AI: News

Profit forecast raisedA strong first quarter pushed Mizuho to raise its annual profit target to a record level.

On July 30, Mizuho reported first-quarter profit of ¥422.9 billion, up 45% from ¥290.5 billion a year earlier, and lifted its full-year forecast to ¥1.4 trillion. Domestic loan spreads widened to 1.26% from 1.10%, while non-interest income rose about 20%. The New York depositary shares gained about 5.5% that day, though price timing alone cannot prove attribution. The results strengthened expectations that higher Japanese rates can support earnings beyond a single quarter.

Buyback doubledMizuho doubled its buyback plan, increasing the amount of capital being returned to shareholders.

On July 30, the board increased its share-repurchase authorization from ¥100 billion to ¥200 billion, with up to 35 million shares eligible for purchase through September. That equals about 1.4% of shares outstanding excluding treasury stock at the stated reference date, and all purchased shares are scheduled for cancellation. The move matters because it converts stronger earnings and excess capital into higher ownership per remaining share, while signaling that management believes capital remains sufficient after distributions.

Capital cushion strengthenedMizuho reported a larger regulatory safety cushion, supporting continued lending and shareholder payouts.

On August 14, Mizuho reported a consolidated common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.51%, up 0.35 percentage points from March. Total capital reached ¥14.59 trillion against ¥82.21 trillion of risk-weighted assets, which adjust loans and investments for regulatory risk. Stronger capital does not guarantee future profits, but it reduces the chance that ordinary business stress forces Mizuho to cut lending, dividends, or buybacks. It also makes the recently expanded repurchase program easier to support.

Rakuten Bank allianceMizuho deepened its Rakuten Bank partnership to reach more digital customers and lending opportunities.

On May 20, Mizuho Bank agreed to strengthen its alliance with Rakuten Bank. The planned transaction would give Mizuho roughly 10.5% of Rakuten Bank voting rights after conversion of allotted shares. The companies intend to cooperate on corporate loans, payments, working-capital services, and other financial products. The investment could broaden Mizuho's access to Rakuten's digital customer ecosystem and generate fee and lending opportunities, although the economic payoff remains uncertain until cross-selling and joint asset activity become measurable.

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Financial statements

	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	¥4.50T	¥3.26T	¥3.95T	¥2.10T	¥1.74T	¥3.03T	¥2.19T	¥2.12T	¥2.48T	¥2.28T	¥2.89T	¥2.85T	¥2.10T	¥2.45T	¥2.11T	¥2.05T	¥2.43T	¥1.73T	¥2.29T
Operating expenses	¥2.63T	¥2.41T	¥2.28T	¥1.93T	¥1.77T	¥1.89T	¥1.88T	¥2.00T	¥1.76T	¥1.76T	¥1.66T	¥1.64T	¥1.50T	¥1.42T	¥1.47T	¥1.44T	¥1.53T	¥1.53T	¥1.50T
Net income	¥1.16T	¥593.39B	¥912.47B	−¥14.01B	−¥104.72B	¥581.76B	¥150.19B	¥84.47B	¥577.61B	¥362.44B	¥850.49B	¥803.05B	¥498.48B	¥875.41B	¥656.39B	¥412.67B	¥999.69B	−¥1.06T	¥228.62B
Net profit margin	25.71%	18.19%	23.11%	−0.67%	−6.02%	19.20%	6.87%	3.99%	23.32%	15.93%	29.44%	28.21%	23.69%	35.73%	31.09%	20.15%	41.06%	−61.03%	9.97%
Basic EPSper basic share	¥466.16	¥234.55	¥359.70	-¥5.52	-¥41.28	¥229.27	¥59.19	¥33.31	¥22.77	¥14.33	¥34.19	¥32.75	¥20.33	¥36.05	¥28.07	¥20.44	¥70.55	-¥95.96	¥18.17
Diluted EPSper diluted share	¥466.09	¥234.52	¥359.65	-¥5.52	-¥41.28	¥229.26	¥59.19	¥33.30	¥22.76	¥14.28	¥33.50	¥31.64	¥19.64	¥34.47	¥26.78	¥19.22	¥61.64	-¥95.96	¥16.77