ALTRIA GROUP, INC. (MO)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because the high payout offsets a shrinking core business.

At $65.70, the shares cost about 11.6 times the midpoint of Altria’s $5.61-to-$5.72 adjusted 2026 earnings guidance. Adjusted earnings remove unusual items and therefore require judgment. The annualized $4.24 dividend yields 6.45%. Based on 2025 free cash flow of $9.07 billion—cash left after running and investing in the business—the $109.7 billion market value implies an 8.3% cash yield. These are inexpensive signals, but not a clear bargain given cigarette decline, debt, and uncertain smoke-free growth.

Big pictureCash stays steady, but cigarette decline makes lasting growth hard to trust.

From 2020 through 2025, revenue fell 11% to $23.28 billion, while gross profit rose 12% to $14.54 billion as pricing and product mix offset fewer sales. Annual operating cash flow remained between $8.26 billion and $9.29 billion, with capital spending below $231 million. This is unusually durable and less tied to economic cycles than most businesses. However, second-quarter 2026 Marlboro shipments fell 7.4%, showing a structural decline that recent pressure on household budgets has made harder to offset.

Business strengthStrong cash returns support owners, while heavy debt leaves little room for mistakes.

At June 2026, debt was $24.58 billion and cash was $2.37 billion, leaving $22.21 billion of net debt; debt has fallen from $29.47 billion in 2020. Yet current liabilities of $7.77 billion exceeded current assets of $4.02 billion, and shareholder equity was negative $2.67 billion, so the balance-sheet cushion is thin. In 2025, $6.96 billion of dividends consumed 77% of free cash flow, while $1.0 billion of buybacks raised total cash returns to 88%. Shares declined 9.9% since 2020, showing buybacks outweighed dilution.

What could change the storySmoke-free gains could unlock upside, but weak Marlboro demand would expose the valuation.

The strongest upside case is successful replacement of cigarettes: on! PLUS reached 120,000 stores, planned new flavors, and has federal marketing authorization. Evidence remains mixed because existing on! pouch shipments fell 4.2% in the second quarter, while NJOY ACE remains unavailable; guidance assumes it does not return during 2026. The thesis would strengthen if pouch volumes and market share grow without heavy discounts or NJOY clears its patent barriers. Continued Marlboro declines above roughly 7%, without enough price increases to protect profit, would weaken dividend coverage and justify a lower valuation.

$65.70 price considered

AI: News

Earnings miss hits sharesA small earnings miss exposed weaker premium demand, prompting a sharp one-day selloff.

On July 30, 2026, Altria reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.48 per share, two cents below the market estimate cited by Reuters. Revenue excluding tobacco taxes rose 1.2% to $5.36 billion, but Marlboro shipments fell 7.4% and on! pouch shipments declined 4.2%. Management raised the bottom of annual earnings guidance to $5.61. The shares closed 9.3% lower at $67.94. The timing strongly suggests the results shaped the reaction, although unrelated trading influences cannot be excluded.

NJOY patent fight continuesA court let a patent probe continue, keeping Altria’s main vaping recovery uncertain.

On June 11, 2026, a federal judge denied Altria and NJOY’s request to pause an International Trade Commission patent investigation brought by Juul. Altria appealed on July 7. The development matters because NJOY ACE was already barred from United States importation and sale, and Altria’s 2026 guidance assumes it will not return this year. Continued legal barriers delay revenue from an asset bought to replace declining cigarette sales. No distinct stock-price reaction was reliably established for the ruling.

Pouches expand nationwideAltria launched its newer pouches nationally, but early volume evidence remains mixed.

Altria announced on March 23, 2026 that federally authorized on! PLUS pouches were entering nationwide retail distribution after wholesale deliveries began March 16. By the second quarter, the product had reached 120,000 stores, with more strengths and flavors planned. This expands Altria’s clearest available route away from cigarettes, especially while NJOY ACE is absent. However, total on! shipments fell 4.2% in the second quarter, so distribution has not yet proven sustained demand. No separate market reaction can be confidently attributed to the rollout.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$23.28B	$24.02B	$24.48B	$25.10B	$26.01B	$26.15B	$25.11B	$25.36B	$25.58B	$25.74B	$25.43B	$24.52B	$24.47B	$24.62B	$23.80B	$24.36B	$23.56B	$19.36B	$18.66B
Gross profit	$14.54B	$14.37B	$14.28B	$14.25B	$13.99B	$13.02B	$12.71B	$12.25B	$11.96B	$11.57B	$11.11B	$10.16B	$10.46B	$9.56B	$8.94B	$9.19B	$8.83B	$7.69B	$7.38B
Research & development	$195.0M	$208.0M	$220.0M	$162.0M	$145.0M	$131.0M	$168.0M	$252.0M	$241.0M	$203.0M	$186.0M	$167.0M	$153.0M	$136.0M	$128.0M	$144.0M	$177.0M	$232.0M	—
Operating income	$9.90B	$11.24B	$11.55B	$11.92B	$11.56B	$10.87B	$10.33B	$9.12B	$9.59B	$8.76B	$8.36B	$7.62B	$8.08B	$7.25B	$6.07B	$6.23B	$5.46B	$4.88B	$4.37B
EBITDAderived	$10.16B	$11.53B	$11.82B	$12.14B	$11.80B	$11.13B	$10.55B	$9.34B	$9.80B	$8.96B	$8.59B	$7.83B	$8.30B	$7.48B	$6.32B	$6.50B	$5.75B	$5.10B	$4.61B
Net income	$6.95B	$11.26B	$8.13B	$5.76B	$2.48B	$4.47B	−$1.29B	$6.96B	$10.22B	$14.24B	$5.24B	$5.07B	$4.54B	$4.18B	$3.39B	$3.90B	$3.21B	$4.93B	$9.79B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$4.12	$6.54	$4.57	$3.19	$1.34	$2.40	-$0.70	$3.69	$5.31	$7.28	$2.67	$2.56	$2.26	$2.06	$1.64	$1.87	$1.55	$2.37	$4.64
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$4.12	$6.54	$4.57	$3.19	$1.34	$2.40	-$0.70	$3.68	$5.31	$7.28	$2.67	$2.56	$2.26	$2.06	$1.64	$1.87	$1.54	$2.36	$4.62

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)3$2.45M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 26, 2026Form 4	KELLY ENNIS DEBRA JDirector	SellCommon Stock	5.8K	$72.25	$418.3K	73.8K
May 26, 2026Form 4	Strahlman Ellen RDirector	SellCommon Stock	2.0K	$72.56	$145.1K	25.1K
Mar 5, 2026Form 4	Whitaker Charles N.SVP, Chief HR Off. & CCO	SellCommon Stock	27.9K	$67.57	$1.89M	180.9K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

ALTRIA GROUP, INC. (MO)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells