MP Materials Corp. (MP)

Price$55.37Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-09 05:09 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because today's valuation requires profits far above the cash MP currently produces.

Using about 178.1 million shares outstanding, the observed price implies roughly $10.5 billion of equity value. That is about 34 times the last four quarters of reported revenue, while those quarters still produced a net loss. A 5% free-cash-flow yield would require roughly $525 million of annual cash left after operations and capital spending. MP instead generated about negative $328 million in 2025 and negative $303 million in the first half of 2026. The gap makes the current valuation hard to defend without a major magnet-profit ramp.

Big pictureOperating results are improving, but earnings and cash generation remain heavily tied to rare-earth economics.

MP's history shows sharp cyclicality. Revenue reached $527.5 million and net income $289.0 million in 2022, but by 2025 revenue was $224.4 million and the company lost $85.9 million. Second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 89% year over year to $108.5 million and the net loss narrowed to $20.3 million, helped by $17.6 million of government price-protection income. Yet first-half operating cash flow was only $4.9 million before $307.7 million of capital spending, so durable cash profits remain unproven.

Business strengthGovernment-backed demand, integrated production, and strong liquidity give MP unusual strategic protection.

The U.S. price-protection agreement pays MP when the benchmark price for neodymium-praseodymium products falls below $110 per kilogram through 2035, reducing part of the commodity downside. At June 2026, MP held about $1.45 billion of cash and short-term investments against roughly $1.0 billion of debt principal. Its new magnetics business also contributed $16.5 million of second-quarter revenue and $7.5 million of adjusted operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. These protections improve survival odds while MP funds its expansion.

What could change the storyMagnet scale could validate the premium, while project delays or dilution would quickly undermine it.

The bull case requires Independence and the planned 10X campus to turn protected demand into several hundred million dollars of recurring annual cash flow; 10X alone is expected to cost more than $1.25 billion and begin commissioning in 2028. The bear case is expensive construction without matching profits. MP spent about $225 million on buybacks in 2024, then raised substantial new equity in 2025, while shares outstanding rose from 163.2 million to 178.1 million. Government preferred stock and warrants could ultimately create up to about 24.5 million additional shares.

AI: News

Second-quarter resultsHigher separated-product sales and government price support produced a clear operating improvement.

On August 6, 2026, MP reported $108.5 million of second-quarter revenue plus $17.6 million of price-protection income. Neodymium-praseodymium production increased 41% year over year and sales volume increased 127%, while the net loss narrowed to $20.3 million. Reuters reported the shares gained about 2.2% after hours. The important mechanism is improving utilization: more separated material and early magnet sales spread fixed costs across a larger revenue base, although reported earnings were still negative.

Project Swarm launchMP added drone makers to its magnet pipeline, widening potential demand beyond its largest existing customers.

MP launched Project Swarm on July 30, 2026 to aggregate rare-earth magnet demand from U.S. and allied drone manufacturers and standardize technical requirements. The company said it had already executed agreements with multiple customers. MP shares rose about 9.3% that session, but timing alone does not prove the announcement caused the move. If pooled orders become firm long-term contracts, they could improve factory utilization and reduce dependence on a small group of large buyers as magnet capacity expands.

Saudi refinery ventureA Saudi joint venture offered MP international refining growth with limited direct financing burden.

On November 19, 2025, MP announced a planned rare-earth refinery venture with Saudi mining company Maaden and the U.S. government. Maaden would hold at least 51%, while MP and the U.S. side would target a combined 49%; the U.S. government would provide non-recourse financing for its contribution. Reuters reported MP shares rose about 10% that day. The structure matters because it can expand MP's refining reach and access to heavy rare-earth feedstocks without requiring MP to fund the full project itself.

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Revenue

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2024

2025

Net income

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2022

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2025

Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$224.4M	$203.9M	$253.4M	$527.5M	$332.0M	$134.3M	$73.0M
Gross profit	$31.7M	$11.3M	$160.7M	$435.3M	—	$70.5M	$11.8M
Gross margin	14.10%	5.53%	63.42%	82.52%	—	52.50%	16.10%
Research & development	$24.2M	$9.3M	$14.9M	$4.2M	—	—	—
Operating expenses	$181.0M	$373.3M	$271.2M	$200.1M	$166.6M	$169.0M	$81.0M
Operating income	−$149.4M	−$169.4M	−$17.7M	$327.4M	$165.3M	−$34.7M	−$7.6M
Operating margin	−66.55%	−83.11%	−6.99%	62.07%	49.81%	−25.84%	−10.44%
EBITDA	−$60.1M	−$91.4M	$38.0M	$345.8M	$189.7M	−$27.8M	−$2.9M
EBITDA margin	−26.78%	−44.82%	14.99%	65.55%	57.15%	−20.68%	−4.02%
Net income	−$85.9M	−$65.4M	$24.3M	$289.0M	$135.0M	−$21.8M	−$6.8M
Net profit margin	−38.26%	−32.09%	9.59%	54.79%	40.68%	−16.25%	−9.25%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.50	-$0.39	$0.14	$1.64	$0.78	-$0.27	-$0.10
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.50	-$0.57	$0.14	$1.52	$0.73	-$0.27	-$0.10

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 9 reported holders of MP
Holder	Shares held
Litinsky James H.	11.84M
Rosenthal Michael Stuart	1.47M
WEISENBURGER RANDALL J	150.9K
Corbett Ryan	109.02K
Hoops Elliot Dean	55.1K
Infuso David Gregory	48.44K
DUCKWORTH CONNIE K	41.77K
Lavan Maryanne	23.75K
MYERS RICHARD B	7.79K

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$1.83M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)64$282.66M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 9, 2026Form 4	Rosenthal Michael StuartChief Operating Officer	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	10.0K	$54.30	$543.0K	136.6K
Jun 3, 2026Form 4	Litinsky James H.Chairman and CEO	SellCommon Stock · indirect	136.1K	$68.65	$9.35M	11.62M
Jun 3, 2026Form 4	Litinsky James H.Chairman and CEO	SellCommon Stock · indirect	37.3K	$70.23	$2.62M	11.76M
Jun 3, 2026Form 4	Litinsky James H.Chairman and CEO	SellCommon Stock · indirect	11.7K	$71.31	$837.2K	11.79M
May 29, 2026Form 4	Litinsky James H.Chairman and CEO	SellCommon Stock · indirect	48.0K	$64.56	$3.10M	11.81M