Noble Corp plc (NE)

Price$45.61Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 10:36 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive unless earnings rebound sharply from this year’s weaker cash generation.

Using the observed quote and 159.6 million shares outstanding, Noble’s equity is worth about $7.3 billion. Adding roughly $1.43 billion of net debt gives an enterprise value near $8.8 billion. Against the midpoint of reduced 2026 adjusted EBITDA—operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization—that is about 9.9 times. Trailing diluted earnings cost roughly 49 times and trailing free cash flow about 26 times. A 7–8 times valuation would require roughly $1.10–$1.25 billion of annual adjusted EBITDA, well above 2026 guidance.

Big pictureNoble has valuable contracted work, but offshore drilling profits still swing with rig demand.

Revenue climbed from $2.59 billion in 2023 to $3.29 billion in 2025, yet net income fell from $482 million to $217 million, and Q2 2026 produced a $37 million loss. Cash has been steadier: 2025 operating cash flow was $952 million, but capital spending consumed $520 million. The trailing twelve months through Q2 suggest about $284 million of free cash flow, meaning cash left after operating and investing. Backlog provides protection, but Brazil suspensions and scheduling changes already forced a 2026 guidance cut.

Business strengthA solid balance sheet and long backlog provide resilience, though shareholder payouts stretch recent cash.

At Q2 2026 Noble held $456 million of cash against $1.89 billion of debt, leaving about $1.43 billion of net debt; current assets of $1.18 billion comfortably exceeded $614 million of current liabilities. June refinancing also lowered borrowing costs and extended maturities. Capital allocation is less conservative: 2025 dividends totaled about $320 million while buybacks fell to $20 million, and no shares were repurchased in the first half of 2026. Shares outstanding rose from 140.8 million in 2023 to 159.6 million, with modest further dilution possible from warrants and equity awards.

What could change the storyHigher rig use and dayrates could justify today’s valuation; more delays would expose downside.

The strongest bull case is that leading drillship rates around the mid-$400,000s per day, July backlog of $6.8 billion and new 2027–2028 work lift utilization enough to restore adjusted EBITDA above roughly $1.1 billion, while refinancing saves cash. The bear case is that Brazil disruptions, weaker floater contracting and delayed work keep 2026-like economics in place. Then the current valuation offers little margin of safety, while the annualized dividend costs about $319 million, more than recent trailing free cash flow. Another guidance cut would materially weaken the thesis.

AI: News

Guidance cut after Brazil disruptionNoble cut its 2026 profit outlook after Brazil rig suspensions, and shares fell sharply the next session.

On July 27, Noble said operational suspensions of Noble Faye Kozack and Noble Courage reduced second-quarter revenue by about $43 million. It cut 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $850–$925 million from $940 million–$1.02 billion and narrowed revenue guidance to $2.8–$2.9 billion. Shares closed about 9% lower on July 28. The timing suggests investors reacted negatively to weaker near-term earnings expectations, although the price move cannot reliably be attributed to that announcement alone.

Backlog gains offset weaknessNew rig contracts added future revenue visibility, partly offsetting weaker near-term operations and guidance.

Also on July 27, Noble disclosed about $200 million of new contract value. Noble Viking received a six-well Asia-Pacific program lasting roughly 300 days from early 2028. Noble Claus Bachmann won 150–210 days with bp in the UK North Sea at $320,000 per day plus a $5 million mobilization fee. July backlog stood at $6.8 billion. These awards support future utilization, but because they arrived with the guidance cut, their standalone effect on the share price is uncertain.

Debt refinancing extends maturitiesNoble replaced expensive 2030 debt with cheaper 2034 notes, improving future cash costs and financial flexibility.

On June 1, Noble priced $800 million of 6.25% senior notes due 2034, upsized from $500 million. Proceeds plus cash were intended to redeem all 8.5% Diamond notes and $300 million of 8.0% notes due 2030; the new notes were issued June 11. Noble later estimated roughly $35 million of annual cash benefits, mainly from lower interest and taxes. The refinancing reduces financing drag and pushes maturities outward, although total quarter-end debt still stood near $1.89 billion.

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Revenue

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2025

Net income

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Revenue	$3.29B	$3.06B	$2.59B	$1.41B	$770.3M	$964.3M
Operating expenses	$2.87B	$2.45B	$2.01B	$1.19B	$709.5M	$5.04B
Operating income	$415.6M	$604.0M	$574.7M	$228.8M	$60.8M	−$4.08B
Operating margin	12.65%	19.75%	22.20%	16.18%	7.90%	−422.76%
EBITDA	$1.01B	$972.6M	$766.0M	$375.8M	—	—
EBITDA margin	30.82%	31.81%	29.58%	26.58%	—	—
Net income	$216.7M	$448.4M	$481.9M	$168.9M	$102.0M	−$3.98B
Net profit margin	6.60%	14.66%	18.61%	11.95%	13.24%	−412.59%
Basic EPSper basic share	$1.36	$3.01	$3.48	$1.99	$1.61	-$15.86
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$1.35	$2.96	$3.32	$1.73	$1.51	-$15.86

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈19.45%of listed shares

APMH Invest A/S31.05M shares · Nov 11, 2024

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of NE
Holder	% owned
APMH Invest A/S	≈19.45%31.05M shares
First Eagle Investment Management, LLC	17.49%27.91M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	12.32%19.67M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	5.07%8.1M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	4.48%7.15M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.59%5.73M shares
STATE STREET CORP	3.40%5.43M shares
FMR LLC	3.29%5.25M shares
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	2.69%4.29M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.26%3.61M shares
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	1.99%3.17M shares
Capital World Investors	1.84%2.94M shares
NEUBERGER BERMAN GROUP LLC	1.53%2.44M shares
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	1.51%2.41M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	1.29%2.06M shares
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC	1.25%1.99M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	1.14%1.82M shares
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/	0.91%1.45M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.88%1.41M shares
UBS Group AG	0.87%1.4M shares

Percentages use 159.64M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys21$113.86M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)30$27.82M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 15, 2026Form 4	Eifler Robert W.President & CEO	SellA Ordinary Shares	17.1K	$45.71	$780.3K	1.19M
Jun 15, 2026Form 4	Eifler Robert W.President & CEO	SellA Ordinary Shares	32.9K	$45.40	$1.49M	1.21M
May 15, 2026Form 4	Hirshberg Al J.Director	SellA Ordinary Shares	1.5K	$52.60	$78.9K	27.8K
May 15, 2026Form 4	Hirshberg Al J.Director	SellA Ordinary Shares	3.5K	$52.63	$184.2K	29.3K
May 12, 2026Form 4	SLEDGE CHARLES MDirector	SellA Ordinary Shares · indirect	724	$51.61	$37.4K	1.4K