Nuvation Bio Inc. (NUVB)

Price$6.81Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 13:46 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe stock looks fairly priced because sales are growing, but profits and cash generation remain unproven.

Using 346.5 million shares, the observed close implies roughly $2.3 billion of equity value. Six-month 2026 product revenue was $41.7 million, but total revenue of $114.9 million included $58.7 million of Eisai upfront license revenue, so annualizing total sales would overstate recurring demand. Against about $661 million of cash and marketable securities and $252 million of convertible debt, the implied value after liquid investments is near $1.9 billion. That is demanding against early product sales, but reasonable only if IBTROZI keeps growing and pipeline assets succeed.

Big pictureNuvation has shifted from research spending toward a real drug launch, but reported revenue still mixes durable and one-time sources.

Revenue has become real, but its quality is uneven. FY 2025 revenue was $62.9 million against a $213.1 million operating loss. In the first half of 2026, revenue reached $114.9 million, yet $73.2 million came from collaborations and licenses, including the one-time Eisai payment. IBTROZI product revenue was $41.7 million and rose 25% sequentially in the second quarter. That makes growth encouraging, while licensing milestones and clinical timing make results lumpy rather than steadily repeatable.

Business strengthThe commercial drug is gaining traction, while durable trial results and a cash cushion support the longer-term pipeline.

IBTROZI product revenue increased from $18.5 million in the first quarter to $23.2 million in the second, while about 85% of roughly 160 new starts were treatment-naïve. Management also reported a 90% response rate and 50-month median response duration in TRUST-I. Safusidenib produced a 51.9% response rate and a 79.1% three-year rate without disease worsening in 27 patients. The $661 million liquidity pool covers at least twelve months by management’s estimate, but losses, trial spending, and small-sample evidence limit certainty.

What could change the storyThe valuation improves with sustained sales and approvals, but dilution and failed trials could quickly weaken downside protection.

The main bull case requires continued IBTROZI adoption, European milestones from Eisai, and positive Phase 3 safusidenib results. The bear case is a slower launch or failed trials while costs continue: first-half research and development plus selling costs were $146.6 million, versus $37.9 million of operating cash used. The July notes raised net proceeds but left roughly $287.5 million principal outstanding; conversion could add about 31.9 million shares, alongside 81.6 million options. No buybacks or dividends offset that dilution.

AI: News

Second-quarter sales updateSecond-quarter product sales grew and patient starts improved, giving investors evidence that IBTROZI can become a durable commercial engine.

On August 6, Nuvation reported $31.7 million of quarterly revenue, including $23.2 million of IBTROZI product sales, up 25% from the prior quarter. About 160 new patients started treatment and 85% were treatment-naïve, supporting a longer revenue runway. Price records show a mixed reaction: the stock fell about 4% that day and rose about 8% the next session, so the data support investor interest but do not prove the report caused the move.

Safusidenib data expansionLonger follow-up strengthened the pipeline case, but the evidence still comes from a small, non-randomized study.

On July 20, updated data from 27 Japanese patients showed a 51.9% confirmed response rate and 79.1% progression-free survival at 36 months after median follow-up of 38.8 months. Nuvation also announced a new Phase 3 study outside the United States and a Phase 2 study after prior vorasidenib treatment. Shares rose about 7.9% that day, consistent with a favorable reception, although timing alone cannot establish causation.

Fast Track designationFDA Fast Track status may shorten review steps, but it does not prove safusidenib works or guarantee approval.

On August 20, the FDA granted Fast Track Designation for safusidenib and noted the program’s unmet-need setting. Fast Track can increase FDA interaction and allow rolling application review when requirements are met, potentially shortening development time. It does not establish effectiveness or approval. The stock closed about 5.9% lower that day, so there is no reliable evidence that this announcement itself lifted valuation.

Convertible note financingThe financing extended Nuvation’s runway but added debt and possible share dilution.

On June 30 and in July, Nuvation completed a $287.5 million convertible-note offering at 0.75% interest, receiving about $279.1 million net after costs and capped-call payments. The financing repaid an earlier loan and extended development runway, but it also raised debt and potential dilution. The initial conversion price was about $7.84, and the filing identifies 31.9 million assumed conversion shares, making future value more sensitive to execution and share count.

Loading local price history

Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Revenue	$62.9M	$7.9M	$0	$0	—	—
Gross profit	$53.6M	$795,000	$0	—	—	—
Gross margin	85.22%	10.10%	—	—	—	—
Research & development	$115.1M	$99.1M	$71.3M	$87.8M	$69.0M	$32.6M
Operating expenses	$276.0M	$600.5M	$99.8M	$119.7M	$93.3M	$43.6M
Operating income	−$213.1M	−$592.6M	−$99.8M	−$119.7M	−$93.3M	−$43.6M
Operating margin	−338.72%	−7,527.33%	—	—	—	—
EBITDA	−$211.3M	−$591.9M	−$99.6M	−$119.5M	−$93.1M	−$43.4M
EBITDA margin	−335.96%	−7,518.66%	—	—	—	—
Net income	−$204.6M	−$567.9M	−$75.8M	−$104.2M	−$86.8M	−$41.7M
Net profit margin	−325.31%	−7,213.76%	—	—	—	—
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.60	-$2.11	-$0.35	-$0.48	-$0.44	-$0.43
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.60	-$2.11	-$0.35	-$0.48	-$0.44	-$0.43

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈17.16%of listed shares

Hung David59.28M shares · Jun 16, 2025

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of NUVB
Holder	% owned
Hung David	≈17.16%59.28M shares
FMR LLC	15.12%52.23M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	8.00%27.63M shares
Cui Xiangmin	≈7.51%25.95M shares
Decheng Capital LLC	7.51%25.95M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.45%11.92M shares
Omega Fund Management, LLC	2.34%8.08M shares
Laurion Capital Management LP	2.26%7.82M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.13%7.37M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.81%6.24M shares
Wang Junyuan Jerry	≈1.77%6.11M shares
Duquesne Family Office LLC	1.31%4.54M shares
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	1.30%4.5M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.02%3.53M shares
TANG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	0.95%3.3M shares
Redmile Group, LLC	0.88%3.03M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	0.78%2.69M shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	0.68%2.36M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.67%2.32M shares
ALGERT GLOBAL LLC	0.66%2.28M shares

Percentages use 345.5M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys14$2.43M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)18$9.19M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 23, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Sauvage PhilippeChief Financial Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	47.7K	$6.01	$286.5K	12.7K
Jun 23, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Markel StacyCHIEF PEOPLE OFFICER	SellClass A Common Stock	125.0K	$6.03	$753.8K	32.6K
Jun 23, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Wentworth KerryCHIEF REGULATORY OFFICER	SellClass A Common Stock	63.0K	$6.02	$379.3K	53.0K
Jun 9, 2026Form 4	Mashal RobertDirector	BuyClass A Common Stock · indirect	25.0K	$4.73	$118.3K	225.0K
Apr 17, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Liu DongfangCHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER	SellClass A Common Stock	50.0K	$5.02	$251.0K	18.0K