NatWest Group plc (NWG)

Price£6.98Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-30 08:29 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because strong returns already justify a sizable premium to book value.

The U.S.-listed shares trade at roughly nine times recent earnings, while the London shares are about 1.8 times NatWest's year-end tangible book value, meaning shareholder equity excluding items such as goodwill. That premium is supported by a 19.2% return on tangible equity in 2025 and 19.7% in the first half of 2026. Earnings per share rose from 53.5 pence in 2024 to 68.0 pence in 2025. The valuation is attractive on earnings, but no longer obviously cheap relative to the bank's underlying capital.

Big pictureProfits have become much stronger, although bank earnings still depend heavily on rates and credit conditions.

The supplied history shows net income rising from a £753 million loss in 2020 to £5.48 billion in 2025, with revenue more than doubling over that period. First-half 2026 attributable profit reached £3.0 billion. Reported operating cash flow is less useful for a bank because customer deposits, loans and securities create very large working-balance movements; the supplied figure swung from negative £43.6 billion in 2022 to positive £7.1 billion in 2025. Profitability, capital generation and credit losses therefore give a clearer picture of durability than conventional free cash flow.

Business strengthNatWest combines strong capital, low current credit losses, and meaningful shareholder payouts without obvious dilution.

At mid-2026 NatWest's core equity capital ratio was 13.2% and its average liquidity coverage ratio was 140%, providing substantial buffers against withdrawals and loan losses. First-half impairment charges were only £423 million, or 19 basis points of loans. Capital allocation has also favored owners: NatWest announced £4.1 billion of distributions for 2025, including £1.5 billion of buybacks and £2.6 billion of dividends. Its ordinary share count fell 7.4% during 2025, so repurchases have meaningfully reduced dilution rather than merely offsetting employee issuance.

What could change the storyEvelyn Partners could broaden earnings, but weaker lending margins or disappointing integration would challenge today's premium.

The bull case requires NatWest to sustain returns near management's newly raised target of above 19% while growing 2026 income to about £17.9 billion. Evelyn Partners adds £69 billion of managed and administered assets and is expected to lift fee income about 20% before sales benefits, reducing reliance on lending spreads. The bear case is concrete: the purchase consumes roughly 130 basis points of core capital and adds about £300 million of 2026 costs. Higher credit losses or weaker interest income would also make a near-1.8-times tangible-book valuation harder to defend.

AI: News

Outlook raised after strong halfNatWest lifted its profit ambitions after faster income growth and continued low credit losses.

On July 31, NatWest reported first-half operating profit of £4.32 billion, about 20% higher than a year earlier, while earnings per share increased 23.3% to 38.1 pence. Management raised expected 2026 income to about £17.9 billion and its return target to above 19%, while declaring a 12 pence interim dividend. The U.S.-listed shares rose roughly 3.5% in premarket trading, consistent with investors responding positively to stronger guidance and earlier consideration of another buyback.

Evelyn acquisition completedNatWest completed its largest strategic expansion in years, sharply increasing its wealth-management scale and fee income.

NatWest completed the Evelyn Partners purchase on June 30 at a £2.7 billion enterprise value. Evelyn brought £69 billion of assets under management and administration, taking the combined wealth business to roughly £127 billion based on year-end figures. Management expects the deal to increase fee income by about 20% before revenue synergies, but it also consumes around 130 basis points of core capital. The value impact therefore depends on whether higher recurring wealth fees compensate for the capital used and integration costs.

Cautious outlook hit sharesFirst-quarter profit rose, but a weaker economic outlook and higher provisions unsettled investors.

On May 1, NatWest reported first-quarter operating profit of £2.0 billion, up 12%, and earnings per share of 17.9 pence, up 15.5%. However, it recorded a £283 million impairment charge after reducing its UK growth and house-price assumptions amid geopolitical and inflation concerns. Reuters reported that the shares fell about 3% in early trading. The reaction cannot prove causation, but it shows investors remain sensitive to signs that weaker economic conditions could raise loan losses or slow banking income.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	£30.24B	£29.32B	£25.38B	£16.57B	£12.70B	£13.45B	£18.16B	£16.66B	£16.06B	£15.95B	£16.89B
Operating expenses	£8.26B	£8.15B	£8.00B	£7.69B	£7.76B	£7.86B	£9.28B	£9.64B	£10.40B	£16.19B	£16.35B
Net income	£5.83B	£4.81B	£4.63B	£3.60B	£3.31B	−£434.0M	£3.80B	£2.15B	£1.51B	−£5.25B	−£1.19B
Net profit margin	19.29%	16.41%	18.25%	21.69%	26.07%	−3.23%	20.92%	12.91%	9.39%	−32.91%	−7.02%
Basic EPSper basic share	£0.68	£0.54	£0.48	£0.34	£0.27	-£0.07	£0.26	£0.14	£0.06	-£0.60	-£0.28
Diluted EPSper diluted share	£0.67	£0.53	£0.48	£0.34	£0.27	-£0.07	£0.26	£0.13	£0.06	-£0.60	-£0.28

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported major voting-rights holders

FCA threshold notices

4.94%of voting rights

Massachusetts Financial Services CompanyNotified Dec 11, 2025

View holders

Reported major voting-rights holders of NWG
Holder	Voting rights
Massachusetts Financial Services Company	4.94%Dec 11, 2025
The Capital Group Companies, Inc.	4.68%Mar 24, 2026 · 1.49B votes
Norges Bank	3.08%May 6, 2026 · 981.75M votes

These are threshold-crossing notices, not a complete ownership register. Percentages show issuer voting rights held through the listed share class, exclude financial instruments, and come from different dates. Positions may overlap.

Gray completes the 100% scale; it is not an estimate of other owners.

Source: FCA National Storage Mechanism ↗Updated Sep 27, 2026