Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OLMA)

Price$9.72Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-16 15:40 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkCash supports much of the valuation, but investors still pay heavily for unproven clinical outcomes.

Using roughly 87.5 million common shares plus 13.6 million near-zero-exercise pre-funded warrants, Olema's economic equity value is around $970 million before employee options. June liquidity of $461.1 million reduces the implied value assigned to the drug pipeline to roughly $510 million after modest borrowing. That is not obviously expensive for a Phase 3 oncology asset plus an earlier-stage program, but there are no product earnings to anchor valuation. Fair value therefore depends heavily on probability-adjusted clinical success rather than conventional earnings multiples.

Big pictureLate-stage trial spending is accelerating, while substantial liquid investments provide runway through the pivotal readout.

Olema generated no product revenue and lost $63.2 million in the June quarter as research spending rose to $57.8 million. First-half operating cash burn was $91.9 million, reflecting increasingly expensive Phase 3 development and commercial preparation. Importantly, the reported $48.6 million cash balance excludes more than $400 million of marketable securities; total cash, equivalents and securities were $461.1 million. Management expects those resources plus available credit to fund its current plan through mid-2028, providing meaningful runway beyond the next palazestrant data event.

Business strengthTwo differentiated oncology programs add optionality, but repeated equity financing has materially diluted existing shareholders.

Palazestrant is already in two Phase 3 breast-cancer studies, while OP-3136 produced early evidence of tumor shrinkage and target engagement in a small Phase 1 population. The balance sheet carries only $3.0 million of funded borrowing, giving Olema flexibility to continue development. The tradeoff is dilution: common shares rose from about 68.6 million a year earlier to 87.5 million, and another 13.6 million pre-funded warrants are economically share-like. Olema also raised $41.9 million through its ATM program during the first half of 2026.

What could change the storyThe OPERA-01 readout is the dominant catalyst, with safety, efficacy and competition defining upside or downside.

The bull case is that OPERA-01 shows palazestrant meaningfully improves progression-free survival with tolerable safety, supporting a 2027 regulatory submission while OPERA-02 and OP-3136 broaden the opportunity. The bear case is a missed Phase 3 endpoint, weaker efficacy than competing endocrine therapies, unexpected toxicity, delayed regulatory timelines or faster-than-planned spending that eventually requires more equity. The most concrete checkpoints are OPERA-01 top-line data in the first quarter of 2027, OPERA-02 enrollment progress, OP-3136 combination data and quarterly cash burn.

AI: News

Pivotal readout movedOPERA-01 enrollment finished, but palazestrant top-line results shifted from fall 2026 into early 2027.

Olema announced in August that enrollment in the pivotal Phase 3 OPERA-01 monotherapy trial was complete and that top-line results are now expected in the first quarter of 2027. Earlier guidance called for a fall 2026 readout. The trial evaluates palazestrant in second- and third-line ER-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer. Completion of enrollment removes one execution risk, but the delayed data timing extends the period before investors learn whether the lead asset clears its most important efficacy test.

OP-3136 showed early activityInitial Phase 1 data showed manageable tolerability and tumor shrinkage across several heavily pretreated cancer patients.

At ASCO, Olema reported initial OP-3136 monotherapy results from 32 heavily pretreated patients. No dose-limiting toxicities or treatment-related discontinuations were observed through the reported dose range. Among 19 response-evaluable patients, 13 experienced tumor shrinkage and three had partial responses, two of them confirmed. These are encouraging early signals rather than proof of efficacy: the study is small, uncontrolled and designed primarily to evaluate safety, dosing and pharmacology before larger trials can establish clinical benefit.

Bayer collaboration broadened pipelineA new combination study will test OP-3136 with darolutamide in metastatic prostate cancer.

Olema entered a clinical collaboration with Bayer to evaluate OP-3136 alongside darolutamide in approximately 36 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. Olema will sponsor the study and retains full global commercial and marketing rights to OP-3136, while the parties jointly own inventions related to the combination. Enrollment is expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. Positive activity could expand OP-3136 beyond breast cancer, while weak results would reduce one important source of pipeline optionality.

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Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2020

2021

2022

2024

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2019

2020

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2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	—	—	—
Research & development	$157.7M	$124.5M	$86.1M	$82.3M	$51.1M	$13.7M	$3.9M
Operating expenses	$178.7M	$142.3M	$105.0M	$107.0M	$71.5M	$21.5M	$4.3M
Operating income	−$178.7M	−$142.3M	−$105.0M	−$107.0M	−$71.5M	−$21.5M	−$4.3M
EBITDA	−$178.2M	−$141.9M	−$104.6M	−$106.6M	−$71.3M	−$21.5M	−$4.3M
Net income	−$162.5M	−$129.5M	−$96.7M	−$104.8M	−$71.1M	−$22.1M	−$4.3M
Basic EPSper basic share	-$1.87	-$2.20	-$2.14	-$2.62	-$1.80	-$3.42	-$1.66
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$1.87	-$2.20	-$2.14	-$2.62	-$1.80	-$3.42	-$1.66

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

13.89%of listed shares

FMR LLC12.14M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of OLMA
Holder	% owned
FMR LLC	13.89%12.14M shares
Paradigm Biocapital Advisors LP	9.91%8.67M shares
Jupiter Topco LLC	8.11%7.09M shares
Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC	8.10%7.09M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	7.68%6.71M shares
BVF INC/IL	6.06%5.3M shares
Siren, L.L.C.	5.55%4.86M shares
STATE STREET CORP	4.94%4.32M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.82%3.34M shares
Logos Global Management LP	3.67%3.21M shares
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC	2.69%2.35M shares
Cormorant Asset Management, LP	2.46%2.15M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.10%1.83M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.08%1.82M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	1.90%1.66M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.79%1.57M shares
Deep Track Capital, LP	1.72%1.5M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.62%1.42M shares
Graham G. Walmsley	≈1.61%1.41M shares
LIGHTSPEED MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.L.C.	1.55%1.36M shares

Percentages use 87.45M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$11.19M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)52$89.66M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Mar 4, 2026Form 4	Mitchell ShawnteCHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	SellComon Stock	233	$24.69	$5.8K	0
Mar 4, 2026Form 4	Mitchell ShawnteCHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	24.8K	$24.25	$600.6K	233
Mar 3, 2026Form 4	Mitchell ShawnteCHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	15.0K	$23.01	$345.1K	0
Jan 20, 2026Form 4	Harmon CyrusDirector	SellCommon Stock	10.0K	$26.88	$268.8K	727.8K
Jan 15, 2026Form 4	Kovacs Shane William CharlesCH. OPERATING & FINANCIAL OFF.	SellCommon Stock	100.0K	$28.73	$2.87M	139.7K