Ondas Inc. (ONDS)

Price$6.85Cached quoteAs of 2026-10-09 07:23 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe stock price assumes years of rapid growth before reliable cash profits are proven.

Using 529.8 million June shares plus 40.0 million DZYNE shares already issued, 45.0 million committed for January, and 0.6 million Cyberhawk shares gives at least about 615 million committed shares. At the observed quote, equity value is roughly $4.6 billion. After subtracting about $1.1 billion of June liquidity remaining after stated acquisition cash use and adding roughly $39 million of debt, the cash-adjusted value is near $3.6 billion, about 6.7 times management’s 2026 revenue midpoint. That excludes other options, warrants, and later issuances.

Big pictureSales and backlog are surging, but the second-half plan leaves little room for execution misses.

Revenue rose to $83.8 million in Q2 from $6.3 million a year earlier, and pro forma backlog reached $757 million. Yet first-half revenue was only about $133.9 million. To hit the $537.5 million midpoint of full-year guidance, the second half must deliver about $403.6 million; after the $147.5 million midpoint of Q3 guidance, Q4 would need roughly $256 million. Large defense orders can be lumpy, so delays in production, acceptance, or customer timing could push revenue between quarters.

Business strengthA large cash reserve and defense backlog support growth, but losses and dilution weaken downside protection.

Ondas ended June with about $1.4 billion of cash, restricted cash and short-term investments against about $39 million of debt, but it used roughly $325 million to close DZYNE and Cyberhawk. The supplied history shows first-half operating cash outflow near $137 million and capital spending near $9 million, so cash generation is not yet durable. Shares outstanding rose from 380.8 million at year-end to 529.8 million by June, before DZYNE’s additional 85 million-share commitment. The balance sheet is strong largely because shareholders funded it.

What could change the storyProof of profitable backlog conversion could justify the premium; another cash-heavy expansion would weaken it.

The bull case strengthens if Ondas meets its $525–$550 million 2026 sales target, converts the $757 million backlog without major margin erosion, and reaches management’s adjusted operating-profit target for the operating platform in Q4 2026. The bear case strengthens if Q4 revenue falls far short of roughly $256 million, gross margin keeps slipping from Q2’s 43.1%, or acquisitions require more equity and cash before company-wide profitability targeted for Q4 2027. Those are observable tests, not distant narratives.

AI: News

Record Q2 and higher guideRevenue beat expectations and guidance rose sharply, but a wider loss showed growth remains expensive.

On August 13, Ondas reported Q2 revenue of $83.8 million, up more than thirteenfold year over year, and lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $525–$550 million. Pro forma backlog reached $757 million, but the adjusted loss was wider than analysts expected and adjusted operating losses remained large. Shares fell about 7% in early trading after the report. The reaction suggests investors wanted faster proof that the revenue surge will convert into durable profit, although any single-day move can have multiple causes.

DZYNE acquisition closesOndas added a major U.S. defense business, but paid heavily with both cash and future shares.

The DZYNE deal closed July 2 and was announced July 6. Ondas paid about $200 million in cash, issued roughly 40 million shares immediately, and committed another 45 million shares for January 2027. Management said DZYNE adds long-range intelligence, counter-drone and precision-strike capabilities and expects more than $300 million of 2027 revenue. Shares rose 5.5% after the announcement, showing investors initially favored the strategic expansion despite the meaningful dilution.

Army order expands backlogA new Army order strengthened revenue visibility and validated the strategy behind buying Mistral.

On August 5, Mistral received an additional U.S. Army order worth more than $50 million under a $982 million multi-year Lethal Unmanned Systems contract. Together with the initial award, Ondas said cumulative orders under the program exceeded $240 million, with production already underway for third-quarter deliveries. The order matters because it converts a large contract vehicle into funded work and gives the company a clearer path to the sharp second-half revenue ramp embedded in guidance.

Cyberhawk acquisition closesCyberhawk adds recurring infrastructure revenue, but consumes more cash before consolidated profitability is proven.

Ondas completed the Cyberhawk acquisition on August 10 for $118.2 million in cash plus about 0.6 million shares. Cyberhawk was forecast to produce more than $45 million of revenue in its fiscal year ending March 2027, with roughly 95% recurring revenue and a $95 million backlog when the deal was announced. The purchase diversifies Ondas beyond defense into infrastructure inspection and software, but it also uses cash while the broader group is still operating at a loss.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	$50.7M	$7.2M	$15.7M	$2.1M	$2.9M	$2.2M	$320,383	$190,029	$274,403	$5,512	$3,891
Gross profit	$20.2M	$345,000	$6.4M	$1.1M	$1.1M	$927,668	$241,257	$150,664	$194,635	−$6,910	−$1,518
Gross margin	39.73%	4.80%	40.67%	52.18%	37.70%	42.87%	75.30%	79.28%	70.93%	−125.36%	−39.01%
Research & development	$20.9M	$12.5M	$17.1M	$24.0M	$5.8M	$3.6M	$5.4M	$3.1M	$1.0M	—	—
Operating expenses	$78.5M	$35.0M	$46.1M	$70.5M	$19.1M	$12.5M	$15.6M	$8.6M	$2.6M	$27,670	$18,257
Operating income	−$58.4M	−$34.6M	−$39.7M	−$69.4M	−$18.0M	−$11.5M	−$15.4M	−$8.4M	−$2.4M	−$34,580	−$19,775
Operating margin	−115.09%	−481.15%	−253.19%	−3,266.02%	−618.34%	−532.60%	−4,797.99%	−4,439.08%	−872.56%	−627.36%	−508.22%
EBITDA	−$57.4M	−$34.0M	−$34.7M	−$65.4M	−$16.5M	−$11.4M	−$15.2M	−$8.4M	−$2.4M	—	—
EBITDA margin	−113.22%	−472.78%	−221.38%	−3,076.93%	−566.30%	−527.16%	−4,752.88%	−4,410.06%	−867.66%	—	—
Net income	−$132.2M	−$38.0M	−$44.8M	−$73.2M	−$15.0M	−$13.5M	−$19.4M	−$12.1M	−$3.0M	−$34,580	−$19,775
Net profit margin	−260.66%	−528.39%	−285.79%	−3,445.35%	−516.86%	−622.90%	−6,052.17%	−6,365.80%	−1,101.38%	−627.36%	−508.22%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.62	-$0.61	-$0.88	-$1.73	-$2.62	-$3.93	-$6.55	-$7.50	-$3.39	-$0.18	-$0.18
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.62	-$0.61	-$0.88	-$1.73	-$2.62	-$3.93	-$6.55	-$7.50	-$3.39	-$0.18	-$0.18

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

7.46%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.39.5M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of ONDS
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	7.46%39.5M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.14%21.91M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.94%15.58M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.40%12.72M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.36%12.48M shares
Hood River Capital Management LLC	2.21%11.69M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.16%11.44M shares
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	1.94%10.28M shares
UBS Group AG	1.30%6.87M shares
Marex Group Ltd	1.28%6.81M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	1.24%6.59M shares
Brock Eric A	≈0.89%4.74M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.83%4.4M shares
VOLORIDGE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC	0.80%4.26M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	0.78%4.13M shares
CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P.	0.72%3.83M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	0.70%3.71M shares
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO	0.67%3.54M shares
TREMBLANT CAPITAL GROUP	0.64%3.37M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	0.63%3.32M shares

Percentages use 529.84M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)34$44.36M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 2, 2026Form 4	Brock Eric AChairman, CEO and President	SellCommon Stock	2.38M	$13.43	$31.94M	3.58M
May 20, 2026Form 4	COHEN RICHARD MDirector	SellCommon Stock	7.5K	$9.50	$71.3K	264.9K
May 19, 2026Form 4	Seidl RandyDirector	SellCommon Stock	10.0K	$9.83	$98.3K	295.5K
Dec 31, 2025Form 4	Brock Eric AChairman, CEO and President	SellCommon Stock	475.0K	$9.71	$4.61M	1.46M
Dec 22, 2025Form 4	SOOD JASPREET KDirector	SellCommon Stock	947	$9.48	$9.0K	217.6K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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