Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)

Price$31.63Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because strong growth is offset by fragile, seasonal earnings.

Using roughly 333 million diluted shares, meaning shares after likely awards and convertible debt are counted, the observed quote implies an equity value near $10.0 billion. Against management’s $500 million to $700 million 2026 operating-profit guide, that is about 14 to 20 times operating profit, while the stock also sits near five times June shareholders’ equity and about half of guided revenue. Those signals are not obviously cheap for an insurer. The valuation works if 2026’s margin improvement persists beyond a seasonally strong first half.

Big pictureOscar has turned sharply profitable, but its first-half cash surge should not be extrapolated.

The supplied history shows net income moving from a $25 million profit in 2024 to a $443 million loss in 2025, then to $1.04 billion of profit in the first half of 2026. Operating cash flow was $4.71 billion in that half, but $3.37 billion came from higher amounts payable to the government, so that cash is not equivalent to durable free cash flow, meaning cash left after normal operations and investment. Full-year guidance also implies a roughly $393 million to $593 million second-half operating loss, reflecting normal insurance seasonality.

Business strengthFast membership growth and a larger capital cushion now give Oscar real operating leverage.

Membership reached 2.96 million in June, up 46% year over year, while first-half premium revenue rose 62% and administrative costs grew much more slowly than revenue. The supplied balance sheet shows about $4.08 billion of cash against $432 million of debt, or roughly $3.64 billion of net cash. Regulators still restrict much of insurers’ capital, but Oscar estimated $994 million above minimum insurance-capital requirements. The trade-off is dilution: basic shares rose about 19% year over year, and diluted shares were about 333 million because of stock awards and debt that can convert into stock.

What could change the storyThe thesis improves if second-half losses stay contained and dilution slows materially.

The bull case strengthens if 2026 operating profit lands near the $700 million top of guidance and 2027 remains profitable without large reserve releases. The bear case is specific: June-quarter medical costs benefited from $164 million of favorable prior-period reserve development, while Oscar expects 250,000 to 300,000 retroactive member disenrollments and still carries large government risk-adjustment payables. If claims, refunds, or risk transfers rise faster than pricing, margins could reverse quickly. September’s investor day should clarify whether management expects durable profit growth and tighter share issuance.

AI: News

Q2 beat, guidance raisedOscar beat expectations and raised profit guidance, but investors focused on second-half membership and claims risks.

On August 6, Oscar reported second-quarter revenue of $4.88 billion, up about 70% year over year, and net income of $361.8 million versus a $228.4 million loss. It lifted 2026 operating-profit guidance to $500 million to $700 million from $250 million to $450 million. Even so, the shares closed about 12% lower that day. Barron’s reported that investors were focused on expected marketplace member losses and second-half uncertainty, so the reaction should be read as reported concern rather than proof of a single cause.

Enrollment cleanup warningOscar expects hundreds of thousands of retroactive disenrollments, which can reverse premium revenue and alter risk estimates.

The August quarterly filing said roughly 250,000 to 300,000 members were expected to be retroactively disenrolled under government program-integrity and fraud-prevention rules. Oscar had already recorded about $1.1 billion payable to the government for premium subsidies collected and expected to be refunded. Membership was 2.96 million in June, down from 3.17 million in March. The mechanism is direct: fewer valid members can reduce recognized premium revenue and change government risk-adjustment estimates, making second-half earnings less predictable even when underlying pricing is strong.

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Revenue

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2025

Net income

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$28.6M	$20.6M	$21.4M	$64.9M	$5.4M	$0	$488.2M
Operating income	−$396.4M	$57.3M	−$235.6M	−$589.9M	−$544.5M	−$402.3M	−$259.4M
Operating margin	−1,386.20%	278.31%	−1,103.43%	−908.51%	−10,094.20%	—	−53.13%
EBITDA	−$367.5M	$89.4M	−$204.9M	−$574.6M	−$529.9M	−$391.0M	−$252.5M
EBITDA margin	−1,285.16%	434.54%	−959.68%	−884.97%	−9,823.43%	—	−51.72%
Net income	−$443.2M	$25.4M	−$270.7M	−$606.3M	−$572.6M	−$406.8M	−$261.2M
Net profit margin	−1,549.86%	123.60%	−1,267.87%	−933.78%	−10,615.61%	—	−53.50%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$1.69	$0.11	-$1.22	-$2.85	-$3.20	-$14.16	-$9.06
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$1.69	$0.10	-$1.22	-$2.85	-$3.20	-$14.16	-$9.06

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

7.53%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.20.59M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of OSCR
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	7.53%20.59M shares
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	4.77%13.04M shares
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	4.62%12.64M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.03%11.03M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.87%10.58M shares
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	3.31%9.06M shares
Bertolini Mark T	≈3.29%8.99M shares
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	2.33%6.37M shares
Thrive Capital Management, LLC	2.32%6.34M shares
Thrive Partners VII Growth GP, LLC / Thrive Capital Partners VII Growth, L.P. / Thrive Partners VII GP, LLC / Claremount VII Associates, L.P.	≈2.32%6.34M shares
Kushner Joshua	≈2.32%6.34M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.13%5.82M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.12%5.8M shares
FMR LLC	1.83%5M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	1.55%4.23M shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	1.48%4.04M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.31%3.57M shares
BIT Capital GmbH	1.25%3.42M shares
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC	1.20%3.28M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	1.19%3.26M shares

Percentages use 273.41M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys15$58.05M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)85$104.39M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 26, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Bertolini Mark TChief Executive Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	149.8K	$29.79	$4.46M	8.99M
Jun 26, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Bertolini Mark TChief Executive Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	441.4K	$29.11	$12.85M	9.14M
Jun 25, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Bertolini Mark TChief Executive Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	17.2K	$29.08	$500.2K	9.58M
Jun 25, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Bertolini Mark TChief Executive Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	597.9K	$28.60	$17.10M	9.60M
Jun 23, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Schlosser MarioDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	97	$30.09	$2.9K	0