Patria Investments Ltd (PAX)

Price$11.28Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because cheap adjusted earnings are offset by weaker reported profits.

At the latest close, Patria trades at about 7.7 times the $1.39 of distributable earnings per share produced over the last four reported quarters. Distributable earnings are management’s adjusted measure of profits available for distributions. Yet those quarters produced only about $0.44 per share of accounting profit, implying roughly 24 times reported earnings. The annualized $0.65 dividend yields about 6%. That wide gap, plus rising debt, makes the low adjusted multiple less decisive and supports a fair-priced verdict.

Big pictureRecurring fees are growing quickly, but acquisitions supply much of the expansion.

Fee-earning assets, which generate management charges, reached $48.9 billion, up 32% from a year earlier. The increase included $6.7 billion from acquisitions, $5.3 billion of organic inflows, and $2.7 billion from higher valuations, partly offset by distributions, withdrawals, and fee reductions. Quarterly management fees rose 28% to $103.7 million, while recurring fee profit rose 24% to $57.1 million. However, accrued performance fees fell from $281 million to $238 million during the quarter, illustrating sensitivity to fund exits and investment values.

Business strengthCash generation supports dividends, while new debt and intangible assets reduce the safety cushion.

The supplied SEC history shows 2024 operating cash flow of $145.9 million and capital spending of $3.6 million. That left $142.3 million of free cash flow—cash remaining after operating and investment needs—against $132.4 million of dividends. By June 2026, cash and short-term investments totaled $113.5 million, versus $347.3 million of loans and $226.3 million of acquisition payments owed. The new $350 million debt is fixed for five to ten years, but assets from acquisitions reached $1.05 billion, exceeding total equity of $638.6 million.

What could change the storyOrganic fundraising and better fund exits could unlock upside; weak Brazil returns could confirm the discount.

The bull case strengthens if $4.0 billion of pending fee-earning assets starts paying fees, the above-target secondaries fund attracts follow-on commitments, and performance-fee balances recover. The bear case strengthens if weaker Brazilian private-equity returns slow fundraising or fund exits while bond interest absorbs recurring profit. Capital allocation also needs watching: repurchases and a share-linked swap offset employee and acquisition shares, but outstanding shares still rose from 159.1 million to 159.5 million during the quarter. The valuation assumes recurring fees can fund interest and dividends without depending on volatile realizations.

AI: News

Brazil concerns trigger downgradeBank of America downgraded Patria as weaker Brazilian conditions and private-equity returns threatened future growth.

On September 9, Bank of America cut Patria to underperform and reduced its price target by about 29%. It cited deteriorating conditions in Brazil, still Patria’s main geographic market, and weaker private-equity returns that could slow organic growth. The shares were down 3.8% during afternoon trading. The timing makes the downgrade a plausible contributor to the decline, but it does not prove that the analyst action alone caused the move.

Second-quarter fee growthSecond-quarter fees and adjusted earnings grew strongly, showing acquisitions and fundraising are lifting recurring income.

On July 31, Patria reported fee-earning assets of $48.9 billion, up 32% year over year. Management fees rose 28%, recurring fee profit rose 24% to $57.1 million, and distributable earnings increased 31% to $50.7 million. Accounting net income was much lower at $10.5 million, highlighting the adjustments behind management’s preferred measure. Shares closed about 1.4% lower that day, although price timing alone cannot identify whether earnings, expectations, or wider trading drove the decline.

Secondaries fund beats targetPatria’s new secondaries fund exceeded its target and broadened the future fee-paying customer base.

Patria announced on July 2 that Secondary Opportunities Fund V closed with more than $670 million of commitments, over one-third above its $500 million target. Existing clients supplied about 55% and new investors supplied 45%, combining retention with customer growth. North America contributed over half and Europe about 40%, supporting geographic diversification. Shares rose about 0.9% that day, but there is insufficient evidence to attribute that movement specifically to the fund announcement.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Revenue	$381.7M	$374.2M	$327.6M	$258.9M	$235.5M	$115.0M	$123.2M	$105.7M
Gross profit	$321.5M	$323.7M	$288.9M	$224.1M	$148.8M	$81.8M	$80.3M	$64.4M
Gross margin	84.23%	86.51%	88.18%	86.55%	63.16%	71.15%	65.14%	60.99%
Operating expenses	$178.5M	$157.8M	$125.0M	$93.6M	$26.9M	$16.7M	$15.6M	$18.0M
Operating income	$143.0M	$165.9M	$163.9M	$130.4M	$121.9M	$65.2M	$64.6M	$46.5M
Operating margin	37.46%	44.33%	50.01%	50.38%	51.74%	56.66%	52.45%	44.00%
EBITDA	$154.6M	$133.2M	$146.4M	$125.5M	$129.1M	$69.3M	$71.6M	$53.3M
EBITDA margin	40.50%	35.60%	44.67%	48.46%	54.83%	60.28%	58.07%	50.41%
Net income	$85.7M	$75.7M	$120.8M	$94.1M	$121.2M	$61.8M	$60.9M	$44.5M
Net profit margin	22.44%	20.23%	36.88%	36.35%	51.46%	53.77%	49.46%	42.08%
Basic EPSper basic share	$0.54	$0.47	$0.80	$0.63	$0.90	$0.53	$0.00	$0.00
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.53	$0.47	$0.80	$0.63	$0.90	$0.53	$0.00	$0.00

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Ownership data is not available for this listing yet.

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys12$2.67M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 5, 2026Form 4	Neto Olimpio MatarazzoDirector	BuyClass A Common Shares · indirect	50.0K	$11.46	$573.0K	235.0K
Jun 3, 2026Form 4	Neto Olimpio MatarazzoDirector	BuyClass A Common Shares · indirect	35.0K	$11.14	$389.9K	185.0K
Jun 3, 2026Form 4	Neto Olimpio MatarazzoDirector	BuyClass A Common Shares · indirect	15.0K	$11.09	$166.3K	150.0K
Jun 2, 2026Form 4	Neto Olimpio MatarazzoDirector	BuyClass A Common Shares · indirect	15.0K	$11.74	$176.1K	135.0K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4	Neto Olimpio MatarazzoDirector	BuyClass A Common Shares · indirect	15.0K	$11.59	$173.8K	120.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Patria Investments Ltd (PAX)

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