Pasqal Holding SA (PSQL)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look overvalued because today’s price assumes exceptional growth from a small sales base.

At the observed quote, 212.3 million outstanding shares imply roughly $1.70 billion of equity value. Adding $312.5 million of convertible-bond principal and subtracting approximately $360 million of closing cash produces an estimated business value near $1.65 billion. That is about 85 times 2025 sales of €16.5 million, or roughly 60 times sales plus grant income. Those multiples require rapid, sustained growth despite heavy losses, financing costs, and dilution, supporting an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureSales are growing quickly, but losses and cash demands remain much larger.

The supplied zero-revenue 2025 figures and small June 2026 profit describe pre-combination legal entities, not Pasqal’s operating business. Legacy Pasqal’s audited revenue rose from €3.5 million in 2024 to €16.5 million in 2025, while grant income contributed another €7.2 million. However, its 2025 operating loss was €50.5 million and net loss was €92.4 million. The supplied history lacks operating and investing cash-flow figures, preventing a dependable cash-runway calculation; substantial ongoing research and manufacturing spending remains clear.

Business strengthWorking systems and named customers support demand, though long delivery cycles make sales uneven.

Pasqal reports seven quantum processors installed and three in production, providing more commercial evidence than a laboratory-only venture. Booked and awarded business reached €68.4 million, including grants, by March 31, 2026, while year-end contract liabilities were €23.0 million, indicating customer funding received before revenue recognition. However, processor contracts typically require about two years for delivery and commissioning. This creates uneven results and makes growth dependent on converting a small number of large, often government-supported projects into completed installations and repeat cloud or software sales.

What could change the storyCommercial scale could improve the case, while financing terms create major dilution risk.

Closing delivered $360 million of cash, but $312.5 million is convertible-bond principal sold for only $250 million. The bonds pay 10% cash interest or 12% added to principal. A September filing registers up to 56.3 million bond-conversion shares and 50.1 million investment-warrant shares under reset assumptions, plus 17.3 million other warrant shares; 32.7 million employee options also existed. Capital is going to manufacturing and research, not dividends or repurchases. The bull case needs recurring sales approaching hundreds of millions while losses narrow; delays would magnify dilution.

AI: News

Nasdaq listing completedPasqal gained a large cash cushion, but its volatile debut showed fragile market confidence.

Pasqal completed its merger on August 27 and began Nasdaq trading the next day with approximately $360 million of cash, seven processors deployed, and three in production. Shares nearly doubled during the first trading day, then lost about three-fifths through September 10. Redemptions had left only 2.7 million former public-holder shares at closing, potentially contributing to unstable trading. That explanation is an inference from the structure and timing; no verified business setback accounts for the entire reversal.

Resale filing expands supplyA huge resale registration may increase tradable supply and highlights future share dilution.

The September 9 preliminary registration covers issuance of up to 17.3 million warrant shares and resale of up to 286.7 million shares. The resale figure combines existing shareholder stock with shares potentially created through bonds and warrants, so it is neither immediate dilution nor a completed sale. Nevertheless, it greatly exceeds the 212.3 million shares currently outstanding. Conversions or exercises would reduce each existing share’s ownership percentage, while registered legacy holders could substantially expand the supply available for trading.

LG CNS partnershipA three-year Korean partnership opens data-center channels but includes no disclosed sales commitment.

On September 10, Pasqal signed a three-year memorandum with LG CNS to integrate neutral-atom processors into artificial-intelligence platforms and data-center infrastructure and pursue customers jointly. The agreement strengthens Pasqal’s route into South Korea and could support hardware, cloud, or software sales. However, a memorandum records planned cooperation rather than a purchase order; no contract value, system quantity, or revenue schedule was disclosed. Shares were modestly higher the following morning, but attributing that move to the announcement would be uncertain.

Saudi expansion agreementsTwo Saudi agreements expand commercial reach, though neither announcement disclosed binding revenue.

On August 24, a planned joint venture with Eleven Ventures targeted deployment of multiple quantum systems across Saudi Arabia and the wider region. On August 31, KACST signed a multi-year research collaboration covering quantum-safe cryptography and Pasqal cloud services. These initiatives broaden access to government and industrial customers, building on Pasqal’s existing Aramco installation. Neither release disclosed deal value, committed purchases, or funding contributions, so the valuation benefit depends on planned deployments becoming recognized commercial sales rather than mainly research grants.

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Revenue

2025

Net income

2025

Free cash flow

No reported data

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024
Revenue	$0	N/A
Net income	$0	N/A

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Ownership data is not available for this listing yet.

Insider buys & sells

Oct 1, 2024–Sep 30, 2026

Buys2$12.50M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Aug 27, 2026Form 4	Bpifrance Investissement S.A.S.Director	BuyOrdinary Share Warrants (right to buy) · derivative · indirect	—	—	—	—
Aug 27, 2026Form 4	Bpifrance Investissement S.A.S.Director	BuySenior Unsecured Convertible Bonds · derivative · indirect	1.30M	$10.00M	$12.50M	1.30M

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Pasqal Holding SA (PSQL)

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