Sunrun Inc. (RUN)

Price$8.75Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe market discounts management’s asset estimate, but current funding costs justify much of that gap.

Sunrun Inc. is listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under RUN. Using the latest observed quote and the 240.1 million shares outstanding reported at June 30, equity value is roughly $2.2 billion, below management’s $3.7 billion of Contracted Net Earning Assets. However, that measure discounts existing customer cash flows at 6%, while Q2 observed project-level capital cost was 7.3%. A higher required return can shrink long-dated asset values quickly, making the current valuation look roughly fair rather than obviously cheap.

Big pictureStorage-led recurring revenue is improving, but financing costs and policy shifts keep the model cyclical.

Second-quarter revenue rose 53% year over year, while storage attachment reached a record 74% and the installed networked storage base reached 4.6 GWh. Those batteries can support grid services and emerging AI-power partnerships, adding optional revenue beyond household subscriptions. The catch is cyclicality: project economics depend heavily on interest rates, tax credits, equipment costs and customer demand. Sunrun’s observed project capital cost moved up to 7.3% in the quarter, and higher discount rates reduce the present value of long-dated customer cash flows.

Business strengthLiquidity covers parent-level debt, yet project leverage remains huge and cash generation needs steadier proof.

At June 30, Sunrun held $712 million of unrestricted cash and about $1.1 billion including restricted cash. Net recourse debt—debt that can claim against the parent—was about $628 million, while roughly $14.5 billion was non-recourse project debt largely serviced by financed solar and storage assets. Q2 operating cash flow was negative $186 million, but management’s Cash Generation measure was positive $23 million, or $45 million excluding safe-harbor equipment investment. The revised full-year Cash Generation outlook of $200-$375 million is encouraging, but lower than prior guidance.

What could change the storyLower funding costs and new grid revenue help bulls; weaker tax economics or dilution favor bears.

Bull case: financing costs ease, storage penetration stays high, cash generation lands near the upper end of guidance, and grid or AI-capacity programs become recurring, high-margin revenue. Bear case: tighter tax-credit rules, weaker customer additions or renewals, higher defaults, and rising discount rates compress subscriber value. The OBBB also accelerated solar-credit deadlines and added prohibited-foreign-entity restrictions that can raise costs. Capital allocation matters too: Sunrun made no share repurchases in Q2, while shares outstanding rose about 2.8% from year-end. Continued equity issuance would dilute each holder’s claim even if operating value improves.

AI: News

Q2 guidance resetRevenue surged and storage adoption hit a record, but Sunrun lowered full-year cash-generation expectations.

On Aug. 5, Sunrun reported Q2 2026 revenue of $870 million, up 53% year over year, with a 74% storage attachment rate. Cash Generation was $23 million, or $45 million excluding equipment safe-harbor investment. Management cut full-year Cash Generation guidance to $200-$375 million from $250-$450 million and trimmed Aggregate Subscriber Value guidance, citing lower affiliate volumes, a slower direct-sales ramp and modestly higher capital costs.

Securitization prices tighterSunrun refinanced seasoned solar assets at a tighter spread, showing continued access to asset-backed capital.

On Aug. 4, Sunrun priced a $267 million securitization backed by 37,595 residential solar and storage systems. The public Class A notes carried a 6.28% coupon and 6.33% yield, with a 200-basis-point spread—20 basis points tighter than its April issuance. This matters because Sunrun’s model depends on reliable project financing; tighter spreads can improve unit economics, although the company remains highly exposed to capital-market conditions and long-term rates.

Voltus AI capacity dealA Voltus agreement opens another channel to monetize home batteries for data-center power needs.

On Aug. 17, Sunrun agreed to provide energy capacity from residential solar-plus-storage systems in the PJM and MISO regions for Voltus programs serving AI hyperscalers. The arrangement is intended to turn aggregated batteries into flexible grid capacity while compensating customers. The commercial value is still unproven: participation, dispatch performance, market rules and the amount of contracted capacity will determine whether this becomes material recurring cash flow.

Distributed AI pilotSunrun began testing in-home compute nodes, seeking high-margin revenue from its installed energy network.

On July 8, Sunrun launched a pilot that places distributed compute nodes in homes with Sunrun solar and batteries. The company says a prior proof of concept generated revenue and that the new program will test performance, homeowner experience and potential enterprise demand before broader rollout. This is strategically interesting because it uses an existing customer footprint rather than building centralized data centers, but it remains experimental and should not be valued like established earnings until contracts, scale and economics are disclosed.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
Revenue	$2.96B	$2.04B	$2.26B	$2.32B	$1.61B	$922.2M	$858.6M	$760.0M	$532.5M	$477.1M	$304.6M	$198.6M	$54.7M
Gross profit	$897.3M	$328.6M	$163.1M	$298.7M	—	—	—	—	$278.4M	$237.7M	$135.9M	$97.8M	—
Gross margin	30.34%	16.12%	7.22%	12.87%	—	—	—	—	52.28%	49.83%	44.60%	49.23%	—
Research & development	$36.1M	$39.3M	$21.8M	$20.9M	$23.2M	$19.5M	$23.6M	$18.8M	$15.1M	$10.2M	$9.7M	$8.4M	$10.0M
Operating expenses	$3.08B	$5.73B	$4.24B	$2.98B	$2.28B	$1.39B	$1.07B	$881.9M	$713.7M	$669.2M	$523.8M	$331.2M	$108.7M
Operating income	−$126.1M	−$3.70B	−$1.98B	−$662.2M	−$666.2M	−$465.1M	−$215.7M	−$121.9M	−$181.1M	−$192.1M	−$219.2M	−$132.6M	−$54.0M
Operating margin	−4.27%	−181.34%	−87.56%	−28.53%	−41.38%	−50.44%	−25.13%	−16.04%	−34.01%	−40.26%	−71.96%	−66.79%	−98.59%
EBITDA	−$87.8M	−$3.65B	−$1.95B	−$635.0M	−$643.2M	−$445.1M	−$193.1M	−$101.5M	−$161.6M	−$173.3M	−$208.0M	−$126.2M	−$51.0M
EBITDA margin	−2.97%	−179.18%	−86.15%	−27.35%	−39.95%	−48.27%	−22.50%	−13.35%	−30.35%	−36.32%	−68.28%	−63.57%	−93.11%
Net income	$449.9M	−$2.85B	−$1.60B	$173.4M	−$79.4M	−$173.4M	$26.3M	$26.7M	$125.5M	$75.1M	−$28.2M	−$70.9M	−$1.2M
Net profit margin	15.22%	−139.67%	−71.00%	7.47%	−4.93%	−18.80%	3.07%	3.51%	23.56%	15.75%	−9.27%	−35.68%	−2.19%
Basic EPSper basic share	$1.96	-$12.81	-$7.41	$0.82	-$0.39	-$1.24	$0.23	$0.24	$1.19	$0.73	-$0.96	-$3.11	-$0.12
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$1.71	-$12.81	-$7.41	$0.80	-$0.39	-$1.24	$0.21	$0.23	$1.16	$0.72	-$0.96	-$3.11	-$0.12

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

17.23%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.41.37M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of RUN
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	17.23%41.37M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	7.99%19.19M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	5.70%13.68M shares
Greenvale Capital LLP	5.54%13.3M shares
STATE STREET CORP	4.37%10.48M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.30%10.32M shares
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	4.26%10.23M shares
Invesco Ltd.	4.23%10.15M shares
PGGM Investments	3.98%9.55M shares
Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC	3.33%8M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	2.86%6.86M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.67%6.4M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.26%5.42M shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	2.10%5.05M shares
BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT Holding S.A.	2.07%4.96M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	2.02%4.86M shares
UBS Group AG	1.84%4.42M shares
Robeco Schweiz AG	1.78%4.26M shares
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.	1.63%3.93M shares
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.	1.54%3.69M shares

Percentages use 240.13M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$1.71M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)132$35.69M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 11, 2026Form 4	Lontoh SonitaDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	7.5K	$12.00	$90.0K	34.0K
Jun 8, 2026Form 4	Abajian DannyChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock	2.0K	$13.39	$27.2K	438.8K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Jurich Lynn MichelleDirector	SellCommon Stock	50.0K	$15.92	$796.0K	459.1K
May 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Jurich Lynn MichelleDirector	SellCommon Stock	50.0K	$12.89	$644.5K	507.9K
Apr 9, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Barak MariaChief Accounting Officer	SellCommon Stock	8.0K	$13.67	$109.9K	73.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Sunrun Inc. (RUN)

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