RXO, Inc. (RXO)

Price$20.71Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-30 08:58 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares price in a strong freight recovery that current profits and cash flow have not yet earned.

At the observed quote, RXO’s equity value is about $3.4 billion. Using the supplied June debt and cash figures, share value plus net debt is roughly $4.1 billion. Second-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization was $40 million, or about $160 million if simply annualized. A 15-times multiple on that run rate supports only about $2.4 billion of enterprise value, meaning share value plus net debt. Matching today’s value would require roughly $274 million annually, leaving little margin of safety unless recovery accelerates.

Big pictureRevenue has rebounded, but profits and cash conversion remain far below the levels needed for durable value.

Revenue rose to $5.74 billion in 2025 from $4.55 billion in 2024, helped by the Coyote acquisition, yet operating loss widened to $79 million from $56 million. In the first half of 2026, operating cash flow was negative $47 million and capital spending was $29 million, leaving about negative $76 million of free cash flow, meaning cash left after operations and investment. The second quarter improved to roughly break-even operating profit, but RXO still must prove higher freight rates can produce sustained cash earnings.

Business strengthMarket share gains and a better freight mix show real operating momentum, but the balance sheet limits flexibility.

Second-quarter 2026 brokerage volume grew 2% year over year and gross profit per load rose 11% sequentially, while Last Mile stops increased 3%. Those are company-specific signs that RXO is gaining share as carrier capacity tightens. However, June cash was only $15 million versus $728 million of debt in the supplied standardized figures, and shares outstanding had climbed from 117.0 million at 2023 year-end to 164.9 million. The 2031 refinancing reduces near-term maturity risk, but debt and dilution mean future operating gains must be substantial before they create strong per-share value.

What could change the storyA sustained rate recovery could justify today’s expectations; stalled margins or cash losses would expose the valuation.

The bull case strengthened in August: RXO’s spot-rate index rose 32.4% year over year in the second quarter, and management guided third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to $35 million-$45 million with low-to-mid-single-digit brokerage volume growth. The bear case is that second-quarter gross margin fell to 13.9% from 17.8% a year earlier despite higher revenue. A convincing re-rating would need several quarters of rising gross profit per load, positive free cash flow, and debt reduction; failure on those markers would weaken the recovery thesis.

AI: News

First-quarter relief rallyMay guidance pointed to a sharper second-quarter profit recovery, sending the shares sharply higher.

On May 7, RXO reported first-quarter revenue of about $1.4 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $6 million, then guided the second quarter to $27 million-$37 million. Barron’s reported the stock rose about 13% as the guidance beat expectations and eased fears around Amazon’s logistics push. The reaction was closely timed to the release, though broader sector sentiment may also have contributed.

Broker-liability legal shockA large verdict against another freight broker raised fears that liability rules could become more costly for RXO.

On July 28, Benchmark discussed a roughly $604 million jury verdict involving C.H. Robinson and a brokered truckload. Investing.com reported RXO shares had fallen 17.7% over the preceding week as investors considered possible industry-wide liability exposure. The verdict was not against RXO and was not a final judgment, so direct financial exposure was uncertain. The mechanism matters because broader broker liability could raise insurance, legal, or operating costs across RXO’s core brokerage business.

Second-quarter earnings beatAugust results showed market-share gains and better load economics, lifting expectations for the freight recovery.

On August 6, RXO reported $1.8 billion of revenue, $40 million of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.06. Brokerage truckload volume rose 2% year over year and gross profit per load improved 11% sequentially. The company guided the third quarter to $35 million-$45 million of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Investing.com reported an 11.9% premarket share-price jump, consistent with a company-specific positive earnings surprise.

Spot rates accelerateLate-August freight data showed tighter carrier capacity, improving the odds of better brokerage economics if demand holds.

On August 25, RXO said its proprietary truckload spot-rate index rose 32.4% year over year in the second quarter, up from 16.5% in the first quarter, and reached its highest level in more than four years. Rising spot rates can benefit RXO when it captures higher customer pricing faster than carrier costs, especially as spot business becomes a larger mix. The data supports the recovery case, but it does not guarantee margin expansion if demand weakens or purchased transportation costs rise just as quickly.

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Revenue

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2020

2021

2022

2023

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2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Revenue	$5.74B	$4.55B	$3.93B	$4.80B	$4.69B	$3.36B
Gross profit	$1.13B	$985.0M	$960.0M	$1.17B	$1.01B	$789.0M
Gross margin	19.70%	21.65%	24.45%	24.44%	21.50%	23.50%
Operating expenses	$1.21B	$1.04B	$921.0M	$1.05B	$816.0M	$729.0M
Operating income	−$79.0M	−$56.0M	$39.0M	$123.0M	$192.0M	$60.0M
Operating margin	−1.38%	−1.23%	0.99%	2.56%	4.09%	1.79%
EBITDA	$37.0M	$31.0M	$106.0M	$209.0M	$273.0M	$136.0M
EBITDA margin	0.64%	0.68%	2.70%	4.36%	5.82%	4.05%
Net income	−$100.0M	−$290.0M	$4.0M	$92.0M	$150.0M	$43.0M
Net profit margin	−1.74%	−6.37%	0.10%	1.92%	3.20%	1.28%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.59	-$2.17	$0.03	$0.80	$1.30	$0.37
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.59	-$2.17	$0.03	$0.79	$1.30	$0.37

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

22.07%of listed shares

Orbis Allan Gray Ltd36.4M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of RXO
Holder	% owned
Orbis Allan Gray Ltd	22.07%36.4M shares
MFN Partners Management, LP	17.04%28.11M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	15.24%25.14M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	5.63%9.29M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.51%7.43M shares
STATE STREET CORP	4.04%6.66M shares
Hood River Capital Management LLC	3.93%6.48M shares
Finepoint Capital LP	3.25%5.36M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.59%4.27M shares
Douglas Lane & Associates, LLC	2.03%3.35M shares
FIL Ltd	1.59%2.63M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	1.58%2.61M shares
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.	1.57%2.58M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.48%2.44M shares
BRADLEY S JACOBS	≈1.43%2.36M shares
Boston Partners	1.34%2.21M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.20%1.98M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	1.04%1.71M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	1.03%1.71M shares
Invesco Ltd.	0.74%1.21M shares

Percentages use 164.92M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys12$266.56M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)1$385.8K disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 12, 2026Form 4	MFN Partners GP, LLC +5TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon Stock	532.3K	$12.00	$6.39M	28.11M
Nov 20, 2025Form 4	Cooper Troy A.Director	BuyCommon Stock	8.3K	$10.61	$88.2K	275.4K
Nov 17, 2025Form 4/A	Kingshott AdrianDirector	BuyCommon Stock	9.3K	$10.75	$100.5K	91.1K
Nov 17, 2025Form 4	Kingshott AdrianDirector	BuyCommon Stock	9.3K	$10.75	$100.5K	91.1K
Nov 10, 2025Form 4	Kerr Jason S.Chief Accounting Officer	SellCommon Stock	33.3K	$11.57	$385.8K	43.6K