Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX)

Price$3.24Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-11 13:56 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe latest close leaves substantial value assigned to an unprofitable, still-clinical pipeline.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc., listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market as RXRX, had an equity value of roughly $1.7 billion at the latest close. Against June cash and cash equivalents of $545.7 million and about $14.2 million of notes payable and finance-lease liabilities, the implied enterprise value—market value minus cash plus debt—is roughly $1.2 billion. First-half revenue was only $14.1 million, so conventional sales multiples look very high, although partnership revenue is unusually lumpy. The valuation therefore depends far more on pipeline probability than current earnings.

Big pictureCash durability improved, but recurring losses make future financing and dilution central valuation risks.

Second-quarter revenue was $7.7 million, while the quarterly net loss was $131.0 million and first-half operating cash use was $187.0 million. Management cut 2026 cash operating expense guidance to below $375 million and still expects runway into early 2028 without additional financing. Liquidity means resources available to fund near-term obligations; here, cash is strong relative to borrowings. However, the business remains pre-commercial, so clinical development costs and lumpy partnership receipts can quickly change the funding outlook.

Business strengthPartnership validation and multiple clinical programs add option value beyond today’s small revenue base.

The bull case rests on several independent shots on goal. Genentech moved the first neuroscience target from the collaboration into early discovery, Recursion reported encouraging REC-4881 Phase 2 signals in FAP, and REC-7735 received IND clearance for a planned Phase 1/2 start. Partnerships have already produced meaningful upfront and milestone cash, which partly validates the platform. The business is not very economically cyclical; instead, results are driven by clinical data, regulatory decisions, partner choices, and biotechnology funding conditions.

What could change the storyClinical wins could re-rate the shares, while setbacks or equity issuance could erase upside.

A reasonable bull scenario assumes REC-4881 gains a credible registration path, REC-1245 and REC-7735 produce supportive human data, and Sanofi or Roche/Genentech programs generate additional milestones before cash becomes tight. The bear scenario is that efficacy disappoints, timelines slip, or partners stop programs while cash burn remains high. Dilution means each existing share owns a smaller percentage after new shares are issued. Recursion sold 99.9 million shares through a 2025 ATM program and had a fresh $300 million ATM capacity unused at June 30, 2026.

AI: News

Genentech Target AdvancesGenentech advanced a neuroscience target as Recursion cut cash-spending guidance and advanced REC-7735.

On August 5, Recursion reported that Genentech exercised its first validated-target option under the neuroscience collaboration, moving a previously unexplored target into a joint early-discovery program. The company also said REC-7735 had cleared its IND and was expected to enter a Phase 1/2 study in the second half of 2026. At the same update, management reduced full-year cash operating expense guidance to below $375 million while maintaining expected runway into early 2028.

Clinical Signals StrengthenEarly REC-1245 safety data and REC-4881 efficacy signals strengthened clinical validation of the platform.

On May 6, Recursion said initial REC-1245 Phase 1/2 data in 16 patients showed no dose-limiting toxicities to date, predictable dose-dependent exposure, and evidence of target engagement. It also highlighted REC-4881 Phase 2 FAP data showing a median 43% reduction in polyp burden at week 13, deepening after a treatment break, and said FDA engagement had begun on a possible registration path. These remain early-stage signals rather than proof of approval or commercial success.

Sanofi Milestone Extends RunwayRecursion reported its fifth Sanofi milestone and extended expected cash runway into early 2028.

On February 25, Recursion reported a fifth progress-based milestone in its Sanofi collaboration, generating a $4 million payment and bringing Sanofi upfront and milestone payments to $134 million. The company also emphasized its first clinical proof of concept for REC-4881 in FAP and said cost reductions had extended expected cash runway into early 2028 without additional financing. The update improved the financing picture, though the company still depends on development success and future partnership or capital-market funding.

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Revenue

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2025

Net income

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$74.7M	$58.8M	$44.6M	$39.8M	$10.2M	$4.0M	$2.3M
Gross profit	$3.7M	$13.6M	$2.0M	−$8.4M	$10.2M	$4.0M	—
Gross margin	4.99%	23.12%	4.46%	−21.16%	100.00%	100.00%	—
Research & development	$475.3M	$314.4M	$241.2M	$155.7M	$135.3M	$63.3M	$45.8M
Operating expenses	$722.8M	$537.8M	$394.6M	$285.6M	$193.0M	$88.6M	$64.8M
Operating income	−$648.1M	−$479.0M	−$350.1M	−$245.7M	−$182.8M	−$84.6M	−$62.4M
Operating margin	−867.87%	−814.09%	−785.33%	−616.74%	−1,795.79%	−2,135.66%	−2,692.58%
EBITDA	−$564.4M	−$442.5M	−$325.7M	−$234.0M	−$174.4M	−$80.7M	−$60.0M
EBITDA margin	−755.79%	−752.07%	−730.58%	−587.23%	−1,713.20%	−2,036.14%	−2,585.25%
Net income	−$644.8M	−$463.7M	−$328.1M	−$239.5M	−$186.5M	−$87.0M	−$61.9M
Net profit margin	−863.35%	−788.02%	−735.99%	−601.05%	−1,832.18%	−2,196.01%	−2,668.35%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$1.44	-$1.69	-$1.58	-$1.36	-$1.49	-$3.99	-$2.87
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$1.44	-$1.69	-$1.58	-$1.36	-$1.49	-$3.99	-$2.87

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

9.42%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.50.3M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of RXRX
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	9.42%50.3M shares
ARK Investment Management LLC	7.74%41.34M shares
STATE STREET CORP	6.50%34.71M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	5.83%31.13M shares
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	4.40%23.49M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.26%22.77M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.59%13.82M shares
SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.	2.55%13.64M shares
MIC Capital Management UK LLP	1.81%9.64M shares
UBS Group AG	1.68%8.95M shares
NORGES BANK	1.28%6.83M shares
Data Collective IV GP, LLC	1.11%5.94M shares
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc.	1.03%5.51M shares
Amova Asset Management Americas, Inc.	1.03%5.51M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.89%4.76M shares
MARSHALL WACE, LLP	0.88%4.71M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	0.77%4.14M shares
DCVC Opportunity Fund II GP, LLC	0.74%3.95M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	0.73%3.92M shares
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO	0.65%3.47M shares

Percentages use 534.12M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)81$18.78M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 18, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Bumpus NamandjeDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	4.0K	$3.18	$12.6K	127.6K
Jun 5, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Khan NajatCEO and President	SellClass A Common Stock	23.6K	$3.58	$84.4K	2.18M
Jun 5, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Gibson ChristopherDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	40.0K	$3.62	$144.8K	883.7K
Jun 3, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Bumpus NamandjeDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	4.4K	$3.54	$15.5K	43.2K
Jun 2, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Borgeson BlakeDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	30.0K	$3.68	$110.4K	6.17M