Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SBSW)

Price$12.54Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-11 21:52 UTC

AI: Undervalued

Price checkThe shares look undervalued if even part of the current earnings rebound survives.

Expected first-half 2026 basic earnings are 36.3–40.1 US cents per ordinary share, and each U.S.-traded depositary share represents four ordinary shares. That makes the shares worth about 7.6–8.4 times just six months of expected earnings, or roughly four times a simple annualization. Against 2025 headline earnings, which exclude certain major one-off items, the valuation is about twenty-two times, and it is over three times 2024 recorded shareholder equity. Still, an eight-times annual-earnings yardstick requires only roughly R6 per ordinary share, near 2022’s R6.51. I judge that threshold achievable if part of the rebound persists.

Big pictureCash generation has swung sharply across the metal cycle, so today’s profits need a discount.

The supplied history shows operating cash flow falling from R32.3 billion in 2021 to R10.1 billion in 2024 while capital spending rose from R12.7 billion to R21.6 billion. Free cash flow, meaning cash left after running and investing in the business, swung from about positive R19.5 billion to negative R11.5 billion; 2023 was also deeply negative. Dividends paid fell from R18.2 billion to R0.17 billion over that span. Gross profit also collapsed from R62.9 billion to R6.9 billion. Operating cash recovered to R21.4 billion in 2025, but durability remains unproven.

Business strengthThe balance sheet is recovering, and stable share counts have limited dilution so far.

On the supplied 2024 figures, debt exceeded cash by R25.6 billion, although current assets still covered current liabilities about 2.3 times. By end-2025, company-reported recourse net debt had improved to R22.1 billion and was 0.59 times adjusted EBITDA, a company measure of profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. Shares outstanding stayed near 2.83 billion from 2022 through 2024, so recent dilution was small. A R1.31 final dividend resumed shareholder returns. However, the US$500 million convertible bond could add about 374 million ordinary shares, roughly 13%, if converted into newly issued shares.

What could change the storySustained metal prices and debt reduction could unlock value; a commodity reversal could erase it.

The bull case is concrete: first-half 2026 received prices rose 35% for South African gold, 67% for South African platinum-group metals and 70% for U.S. platinum-group metals, while South African platinum-group operating profit before financing, tax and depreciation rose about 300%. The bear case is equally specific: gold costs rose 14%, South African platinum-group costs 10% and U.S. costs 12%. If prices retreat while these costs and project spending remain high, profits can compress quickly. Final first-half cash flow and net debt will show how much of the earnings surge became durable cash.

AI: News

Earnings rebound acceleratesFirst-half earnings are expected to jump sharply as gold and platinum-group metal prices lift margins.

On August 27, Sibanye said first-half 2026 headline earnings per share, which exclude major one-off remeasurements, should rise more than 200% to 571–631 South African cents. Basic earnings per share are expected at 597–658 cents, improving more than 560% from a prior-year loss. South African gold adjusted operating profit rose about 85% and South African platinum-group operations about 300%. The U.S.-traded shares closed 1.4% higher that day; the timing is consistent with a positive reaction but does not prove causation.

Palladium tariff setback appealedA U.S. trade ruling blocked tariff relief, leaving Sibanye’s American palladium mines exposed to Russian supply pressure.

Sibanye announced on July 21 that it was appealing the U.S. International Trade Commission’s finding that Russian palladium imports had not materially injured domestic producers. That ruling prevented duties even though the Commerce Department had calculated a 132.83% dumping margin and a 109.1% subsidy-related duty. Sibanye is the sole primary U.S. palladium producer, so a successful appeal could improve domestic pricing support and Stillwater economics; failure leaves those mines more exposed to global palladium prices. The stock-specific market reaction was not clearly separable from broader metal moves.

Debt maturities pushed outA new bond replaced near-term debt and reduced refinancing risk, though borrowing remains meaningful.

In May, Sibanye issued US$500 million of 6.25% senior notes due 2031 and used the proceeds with cash to address US$675 million of 4.0% notes due in November 2026, while also tendering for up to US$75 million of 2029 notes. The new issue was reported as more than five times oversubscribed. Extending maturities reduces a near-term liquidity risk and supports management’s debt-reduction plan, but the higher coupon raises interest cost versus the retired 2026 notes and does not remove the separate 2028 convertible-bond dilution risk.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Revenue	R129.68B	R112.13B	R113.68B	R138.29B	R172.19B	R127.39B	R72.92B	R50.66B	R45.91B
Gross profit	R30.71B	R6.92B	R13.92B	R36.66B	R62.89B	R44.02B	R9.61B	R2.53B	R3.73B
Gross margin	23.68%	6.17%	12.24%	26.51%	36.52%	34.56%	13.18%	4.99%	8.12%
Operating expenses	R5.65B	R2.62B	R4.36B	R1.77B	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	R25.06B	R3.68B	R8.42B	R32.82B	—	—	—	—	—
Operating margin	19.32%	3.29%	7.41%	23.74%	—	—	—	—	—
EBITDA	R12.67B	R7.86B	−R27.52B	R37.13B	—	—	—	—	—
EBITDA margin	9.77%	7.01%	−24.21%	26.85%	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	−R5.17B	−R5.71B	−R37.43B	R18.98B	R33.80B	R30.62B	R433.0M	−R2.52B	−R4.43B
Net profit margin	−3.99%	−5.09%	−32.92%	13.72%	19.63%	24.04%	0.59%	−4.98%	−9.66%
Basic EPSper basic share	-ZAR 7.32	-ZAR 2.58	-ZAR 13.34	ZAR 6.51	ZAR 11.40	ZAR 10.74	ZAR 0.02	-ZAR 1.10	-ZAR 2.29
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-ZAR 7.32	-ZAR 2.58	-ZAR 13.34	ZAR 6.50	ZAR 11.29	ZAR 10.55	ZAR 0.02	-ZAR 1.10	-ZAR 2.29

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of SBSW
Holder	Shares held
Lingotto Investment Management LLP	19.08M
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	7.27M
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP	6.07M
Bridgewater Associates, LP	5.69M
UBS Group AG	5.37M
Condire Management, LP	5.24M
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC	4.58M
MORGAN STANLEY	4.58M
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	4.44M
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC	4.1M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	3.26M
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	2.96M
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP	2.67M
MARSHALL WACE, LLP	2.6M
Nuveen, LLC	2.51M
Qube Research & Technologies Ltd	2.38M
BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS	2.33M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	2.32M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	2.29M
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.	2.15M

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys7$2.61M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 26, 2026Form 4	Keyter CharlChief Financial Officer	BuyOrdinary Shares	200.0K	$2.24	$448.0K	2.20M
Mar 31, 2026Form 4	Nkosi Themba GeorgeChief People & Culture Officer	BuyOrdinary Shares	11.9K	$2.91	$34.5K	242.2K
Mar 30, 2026Form 4	Carter Charles EdwardChief Regional Officer: Amer.	BuyAmerican Depositary Shares	10.0K	$11.40	$114.0K	180.0K
Mar 24, 2026Form 4	Menell Richard PeterDirector	BuyAmerican Depositary Shares	2.5K	$11.43	$28.6K	2.5K
Mar 23, 2026Form 4	Keyter CharlChief Financial Officer	BuyOrdinary Shares	35.0K	$2.70	$94.5K	2.00M

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SBSW)

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