Ses S.a. (SGBAF)

Price$5.20Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-12 23:28 UTC

AI: Undervalued

Price checkThe OTC line looks inexpensive, but thin trading makes the quoted valuation less reliable.

SGBAF is SES S.A.'s U.S. OTC Markets line; SES says its primary listings are Euronext Paris and Luxembourg under SESG. The OTC quote is extremely lightly traded, so a recent print can lag the primary market. Market data still points to a low headline valuation: below book value, around 0.6 times sales, and no meaningful earnings multiple because trailing profits are negative. That supports an undervalued label, but investors should anchor decisions to the more liquid Paris listing.

Big pictureCheap valuation meets heavy leverage, weak free cash flow, and a large delayed C-band windfall.

Adjusted operating cash flow remained positive at €522 million, but H1 adjusted free cash flow was negative as capital spending, interest and working-capital timing absorbed cash. Adjusted net debt reached 4.4 times EBITDA, while SES targets 3.0 times or below. The counterweight is the FCC's Upper C-band plan: SES could receive about $5.6 billion of gross incentive payments if it clears spectrum on schedule in 2030-2031, plus eligible cost reimbursement. Because the payment is conditional, delayed and subject to taxes and other claims, it should not be valued dollar-for-dollar today.

Business strengthIntelsat adds scale, while mobility and defense growth offset structurally weaker media and fixed-data markets.

The Intelsat combination created a much larger multi-orbit operator and H1 backlog reached €6.4 billion. Mobility and Government & Defense were the clearest growth areas, while Media and Fixed Data remained pressured on a like-for-like basis. H1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA were both down mid-single digits versus the combined prior-year base, despite reported growth from consolidation. That mix matters: government and aviation contracts can expand, but video distribution is mature and contract timing makes quarterly results lumpy, so earnings durability is improving rather than proven.

What could change the storyExecution on cash flow, deleveraging and spectrum proceeds can unlock upside; misses could erase it.

The bull case assumes second-half trading meets stable full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance, integration savings lift cash flow, and C-band proceeds arrive on schedule, allowing leverage to fall toward target. The bear case is prolonged pro-forma revenue decline, higher IRIS² or constellation spending, launch problems, and delayed or reduced spectrum proceeds. Capital allocation is debt-first: management plans a higher base dividend after leverage reaches target. Treasury-share cancellation cut the economic share count about 6%; hybrid securities still carry conversion features in specified stress events.

AI: News

H1 results disappointSES kept full-year guidance, but softer second-quarter revenue and negative free cash flow highlighted execution risk.

On July 30, SES reported H1 revenue of €1.602 billion and adjusted EBITDA of €725 million, while adjusted free cash flow was a €130 million outflow. Second-quarter revenue of €755 million missed the company-compiled analyst consensus cited by Reuters, and the shares fell more than 17% that day. Management nevertheless reiterated its 2026 outlook for stable like-for-like revenue and adjusted EBITDA, which now depends on a stronger second half.

C-band order approvedFCC approval created a major conditional cash opportunity tied to long-dated spectrum-clearing milestones.

On July 27, SES said the FCC's Upper C-band order could generate approximately $5.6 billion of gross incentive payments if required spectrum is cleared by the 2030 and 2031 deadlines. Reuters reported that taxes and payments tied to Intelsat bondholders reduce the amount ultimately available to SES shareholders. The order also provides reimbursement for reasonable transition costs, making the program potentially powerful for deleveraging but not a near-term cash source.

IRIS² moves forwardIRIS² moved into implementation, giving SES greater visibility but also a substantial long-term investment commitment.

On August 7, SES announced completion of the first IRIS² implementation milestone after the European Commission and SpaceRISE signed an agreement expanding the constellation. SES said its expected capital commitment for the MEO segment is up to €1.35 billion, with 18 MEO satellites and service targeted for 2030. The project strengthens SES's European government and secure-connectivity position, but adds another major capital program while leverage remains elevated.

mPOWER launch nearsThe final three O3b mPOWER satellites reached Cape Canaveral ahead of a planned September launch.

On September 2, SES said O3b mPOWER satellites 11, 12 and 13 had arrived at Cape Canaveral for launch preparation. They are intended to join ten satellites already operating in medium Earth orbit and complete the initial 13-satellite constellation. Additional capacity and resilience could support aviation, government and enterprise growth, but the launch and subsequent in-orbit performance still matter because earlier mPOWER spacecraft generated insurance claims.

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Revenue

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Net income

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	€2.63B	€2.00B	€2.03B	€1.94B
Gross profit	€1.87B	€1.54B	€1.59B	€1.59B
Gross margin	71.26%	76.96%	78.13%	81.94%
Operating expenses	€1.81B	€1.48B	€2.27B	€1.20B
Operating income	€64.0M	€64.0M	−€686.0M	€397.0M
Operating margin	2.44%	3.20%	−33.79%	20.42%
EBITDA	€1.19B	€993.0M	€3.68B	€859.0M
EBITDA margin	45.11%	49.63%	181.38%	44.19%
Net income	−€94.0M	€27.0M	−€904.0M	−€34.0M
Net profit margin	−3.58%	1.35%	−44.53%	−1.75%
Basic EPSper basic share	-€0.26	€0.00	-€2.14	-€0.16
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-€0.26	€0.00	-€2.14	-€0.16