Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG)

Price$26.02Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-30 08:28 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because stronger earnings now offset a richer valuation.

The market values SMFG at about 13.5 times expected earnings and roughly 1.6 times book value, meaning the share price is about 60% above accounting net assets. That book multiple is around 27% above its three-year average. The premium is partly justified: management expects record profit of ¥1.7 trillion, while first-quarter profit rose 33%. Still, today's price leaves limited room for disappointment. A value investor needs record-level earnings and improved profitability to persist, so the evidence supports Fair-priced rather than a clear bargain.

Big pictureEarnings are improving sharply, but banking cash flows remain unusually sensitive to funding movements.

The supplied SEC-derived history shows uneven reported profit and very volatile operating cash flow: operating cash ranged from negative ¥5.24 trillion to positive ¥18.32 trillion across recent years. For a bank, that measure is less useful than for an industrial company because customer deposits and loans create enormous cash movements. More important, current Japanese reporting shows profit reached ¥1.583 trillion for the year ended March 2026, up 34%, and the latest quarter added ¥501.4 billion. Higher domestic lending spreads and loan growth are making earnings more durable.

Business strengthA stronger capital cushion and disciplined shareholder returns give the bank meaningful downside protection.

The supplied history shows stockholders' equity rising from about ¥10.2 trillion in fiscal 2020 to ¥16.5 trillion in fiscal 2025, while dividends and buybacks also increased. Current regulatory data are reassuring: the common-equity capital ratio, a measure of highest-quality capital against risk-weighted assets, reached 12.63%, up from 12.41% in March. SMFG also completed a ¥180 billion repurchase and canceled 28.0 million shares, about 0.7% of issued shares. The forthcoming stock split changes share counts, not each investor's economic ownership.

What could change the storyFurther Japanese rate gains could lift profits, while weaker credit quality could erase that upside.

The strongest bull case is continued Japanese financial normalization. SMFG's domestic loan-to-deposit spread widened to 1.31% from 1.08%, while loans grew 7% to ¥113.4 trillion, so another sustainable rise in lending returns could justify today's book-value premium. The bear case is credit deterioration or weaker loan demand: annual credit costs already rose ¥43.9 billion to ¥388.4 billion, partly from forward-looking provisions. The current valuation therefore assumes today's improved spreads and roughly ¥1.7 trillion annual profit are not temporary peaks.

AI: News

First-quarter profit jumpProfit rose one-third as stronger lending returns and loan demand reinforced expectations for record earnings.

On July 31, SMFG reported first-quarter profit attributable to shareholders of ¥501.4 billion, up 33% from ¥376.9 billion a year earlier. Ordinary profit rose 43%, and management kept its ¥1.7 trillion full-year profit forecast. Reuters attributed the improvement to robust corporate loan demand and higher Japanese interest rates; domestic lending spreads widened materially. The American depositary receipts moved only modestly that session, so the day's price change alone does not establish the market's judgment.

Buyback completedSMFG finished its planned repurchase and permanently removed shares, increasing each remaining shareholder's ownership.

On August 3, SMFG said it had spent essentially the full ¥180 billion authorized in May, buying 28,018,600 shares. Those shares represented about 0.7% of issued shares and were scheduled for cancellation on August 20 rather than being retained indefinitely as treasury stock. This matters because cancellation reduces the permanent share count and improves per-share ownership. The depositary receipts fell around the announcement window, but broader trading factors prevent confidently attributing that move to the buyback update.

Record earnings and new returnsRecord annual profit came with another buyback and higher profit guidance, but investors already expected improvement.

On May 13, SMFG reported ¥1.583 trillion of annual profit, up 34.4%, and forecast ¥1.7 trillion for the following year. It simultaneously announced a buyback of up to ¥180 billion and a two-for-one stock split, with the American depositary receipt ratio adjusted so the split would not change its underlying economic value. Reuters reported the shares down roughly 4.4% around the announcement; because several disclosures arrived together, that reaction cannot reliably be assigned to any single item.

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Financial statements

	2026	2025	2025	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Revenue	¥5.79T	—	—	¥5.07T	¥4.43T	¥3.72T	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Research & development	—	—	—	—	¥0	¥0	¥35.0M	¥60.0M	¥78.0M	¥167.0M	¥84.0M	¥89.0M	¥207.0M
Operating expenses	—	—	—	¥2.92T	¥2.69T	¥2.46T	¥2.17T	¥1.96T	¥2.19T	¥2.26T	¥2.57T	¥2.28T	¥2.25T
Net income	¥1.58T	—	—	¥516.44B	¥895.75B	¥935.85B	¥515.08B	¥705.08B	¥230.98B	¥647.59B	¥889.60B	¥740.59B	¥952.82B
Net profit margin	27.33%	—	—	10.19%	20.20%	25.16%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Basic EPSper basic share	¥247.18	¥215.29	¥182.79	¥122.40	¥219.04	¥222.71	¥364.46	¥501.73	¥145.48	¥387.76	¥538.84	¥458.56	¥617.25
Diluted EPSper diluted share	¥247.13	¥215.24	¥182.75	¥122.36	¥218.98	¥222.63	¥364.31	¥501.49	¥145.39	¥387.49	¥538.43	¥458.18	¥616.83

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

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Top 20 reported holders of SMFG
Holder	Shares held
MORGAN STANLEY	25.11M
FMR LLC	13.94M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	10.81M
BlackRock, Inc.	7.85M
Fisher Asset Management, LLC	6.29M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	6.16M
Clark Capital Management Group, Inc.	3.83M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	3.49M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	3.14M
ENVESTNET ASSET MANAGEMENT INC	2.26M
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN	2.15M
Quantinno Capital Management LP	2.14M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.78M
FERGUSON WELLMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC	1.71M
Capital Wealth Planning, LLC	1.66M
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	1.53M
CAUSEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.39M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.34M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	1.24M
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC	1.02M

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

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