Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)

Price$4.74Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 00:58 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe equity reflects substantial production and reserve value, but heavy high-cost debt, recent dilution and unresolved regulatory risk prevent the depressed market capitalization from being clearly cheap.

After the July equity issuance, Sable had roughly 192 million basic shares outstanding, implying an equity value below $0.9 billion. Pro forma debt following the refinancing consists primarily of a $675 million secured term loan and $345 million of convertible notes, putting enterprise value around $1.8 billion before subsequent cash movements. Independent engineers estimated May 2026 proved developed reserves at about 90.5 million barrels of oil plus natural gas and NGLs, with a pre-tax PV-10 of approximately $1.47 billion using materially lower hydrocarbon-price assumptions than current spot conditions. Probable and possible developed reserves add significant optionality, but valuation also has to absorb an expensive capital structure and substantial potential convertible dilution.

Big pictureSable has transitioned from a pre-revenue redevelopment story into an operating offshore producer, with production ramping rapidly from the Santa Ynez Unit but still below the system's targeted steady-state potential.

The second quarter was Sable's first full quarter of revenue generation, with $137.1 million of sales and positive operating cash flow. Average net oil sales were about 21 thousand barrels per day, while quarter-end sales had increased to roughly 40 thousand barrels per day. July preliminary sales averaged about 38 thousand gross barrels per day and early-August sales roughly 42 thousand. Harmony and Heritage were progressively returning wells to service, and management expected Platform Hondo plus additional well optimizations to provide another production step-up. Execution therefore matters enormously: fixed offshore and infrastructure costs should become better absorbed as volumes rise, but production interruptions would have the opposite effect.

Business strengthThe Santa Ynez Unit provides a sizable developed reserve base and integrated offshore-to-refinery infrastructure, but Sable's financial flexibility remains constrained by expensive financing and substantial operating and abandonment obligations.

The asset includes three offshore platforms, the Las Flores Canyon processing and storage complex and the Santa Ynez Pipeline System, giving Sable control over much of the production chain. Independent engineers estimated roughly 90.5 million barrels of proved developed oil reserves and additional probable and possible developed resources as of May. Second-quarter capital spending fell to $39.4 million as the restart advanced, but June cash was only about $22 million before the subsequent refinancing. The July transaction extended the nearest major maturity into late 2028 and removed the prior going-concern uncertainty, but the secured term loan carries a 15% coupon, mandatory amortization and an excess-cash-flow sweep. The convertible notes also create potential equity dilution, while the revolver initially had no borrowing base.

What could change the storyFull production ramp-up, improved crude marketing and further regulatory wins could create considerable operating leverage, while pipeline litigation, high financing costs or execution problems could rapidly erode equity value.

The bull case depends on bringing the remaining Harmony and Heritage wells online, restarting Hondo, completing planned perforation additions and removing downstream throughput constraints. Higher production would spread fixed costs across more barrels and could generate cash for mandatory debt reduction, while additional marketing routes could improve realized economics. Commodity prices remain a major sensitivity, although Sable has begun a hedging program. The bear case is unusually asymmetric because the business depends on one geographically concentrated asset and its associated infrastructure. Regulatory disputes remain active despite favorable federal rulings in August, including California appeals and Coastal Commission proceedings. A forced interruption, pipeline failure, weaker crude pricing, higher abandonment costs or slower production ramp would be particularly damaging given the high interest burden.

AI: News

Second quarter marked the transition to meaningful oil productionSable generated its first full quarter of revenue and positive operating cash flow while rapidly increasing output from the Santa Ynez Unit.

Second-quarter revenue reached $137.1 million and operating cash flow turned positive at $9.4 million. Average net oil sales were approximately 21 thousand barrels per day, but the company exited the quarter near 40 thousand barrels per day as more Harmony and Heritage wells returned to production. Management reported further progress into August and planned to restart Platform Hondo and bring additional optimized wells online, making the production ramp the most important near-term operating catalyst.

Major refinancing extended maturities but added dilution and expensive debtA July capital restructuring resolved the immediate refinancing problem while leaving Sable with a demanding interest burden and substantially more shares outstanding.

Sable issued $675 million of secured term debt, $345 million of convertible notes and more than 37 million new common shares, using proceeds to repay the former Exxon-related term loan and add liquidity. The transaction pushed the nearest major debt maturity to late 2028 and led management to conclude that the previously disclosed substantial doubt about going concern had been alleviated. However, the secured loan carries a 15% coupon and aggressive mandatory repayment terms, while the convertible securities and common-stock issuance materially increase dilution risk.

Federal court rulings reduced near-term shutdown riskAugust decisions strengthened federal oversight of the pipeline and declined to order a shutdown, although California regulatory litigation remains active.

A federal district court substituted PHMSA for the California fire marshal as the regulator overseeing pipeline operations under the existing consent decree. Although the court found that Sable had previously restarted operations without the authorization then required and imposed a $1.449 million penalty, it declined California's request to shut the pipelines because PHMSA had approved the restart plan. The court also rejected a California request for a preliminary injunction against the federal Defense Production Act order. California and other parties have appealed or continued related proceedings, so regulatory risk has been reduced rather than eliminated.

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Revenue

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Operating expenses	$408.3M	$326.8M	$94.5M	$6.2M	$1.7M
Operating income	−$408.3M	−$326.8M	−$94.5M	−$6.2M	−$1.7M
EBITDA	−$395.4M	−$317.0M	−$73.5M	−$6.2M	−$1.7M
Net income	−$410.2M	−$617.3M	−$93.7M	−$2.6M	$4.3M
Basic EPSper basic share	-$4.18	-$9.21	-$7.05	-$0.07	$0.14
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$4.18	-$9.21	-$7.05	-$0.07	$0.14

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

11.78%of listed shares

PILGRIM GLOBAL ADVISORS LLC18.21M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of SOC
Holder	% owned
PILGRIM GLOBAL ADVISORS LLC	11.78%18.21M shares
Encompass Capital Advisors LLC	9.35%14.45M shares
CONTINENTAL GENERAL INSURANCE CO	9.15%14.14M shares
FLORES JAMES C	≈7.38%11.4M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	6.90%10.67M shares
Sarofim Christopher Binyon	≈6.44%9.95M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	5.45%8.41M shares
Two Seas Capital LP	5.42%8.38M shares
STATE STREET CORP	5.06%7.82M shares
FourWorld Capital Management LLC	4.42%6.82M shares
Capital International Investors	3.96%6.11M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.76%5.81M shares
Whitefort Capital Management, LP	2.41%3.72M shares
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP	2.21%3.42M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.16%3.34M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	2.06%3.18M shares
BW Gestao de Investimentos Ltda.	1.95%3.01M shares
REDWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.94%3M shares
Verition Fund Management LLC	1.93%2.99M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.72%2.66M shares

Percentages use 154.53M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys8$33.96M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)23$29.75M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Apr 29, 2026Form 4	Flores James CaldwellPresident, COO	SellCommon Stock	39.3K	$13.56	$533.1K	562.7K
Apr 29, 2026Form 4	Duenner AnthonySee Remarks	SellCommon Stock	39.3K	$13.56	$533.1K	590.9K
Apr 29, 2026Form 4	Patrinely Gregory D.EVP, CFO	SellCommon Stock	39.3K	$13.56	$533.1K	562.7K
Apr 29, 2026Form 4	FLORES JAMES CChairman & CEO	SellCommon Stock	68.8K	$13.56	$932.8K	8.17M
Apr 28, 2026Form 4	Flores James CaldwellPresident, COO	SellCommon Stock	40.7K	$13.33	$543.1K	502.1K