Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK)

Price$30.12Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-08 18:44 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe market value already reflects meaningful clinical success, but still leaves upside if pivotal data confirm earlier results.

At the latest close, Stoke’s equity value was about $1.93 billion. With roughly $420 million of pro forma cash after its summer ATM sale and no borrowings shown on the June balance sheet, investors are valuing the operating pipeline at roughly $1.5 billion. That is substantial for a company with no approved products, yet not extreme for a late-stage rare-disease asset with encouraging long-term data and a major partner. I view that balance as Fair-priced rather than clearly cheap.

Big pictureThis is an event-driven biotech, so trial outcomes matter far more than the economic cycle.

Revenue comes mostly from collaboration accounting, not recurring medicine sales, so earnings are currently a poor valuation anchor. The key cycle is clinical: FDA interactions in late 2026, rolling NDA work in 2027, and Phase 3 EMPEROR data expected in Q3 2027. Bull case: pivotal results reproduce durable seizure and developmental benefits, supporting approval and strong uptake. Bear case: efficacy, safety, or regulatory setbacks delay commercialization, leaving the shares to trade closer to cash-backed pipeline value.

Business strengthA large cash reserve, limited balance-sheet obligations, and Biogen cost sharing improve survival through the pivotal program.

At June 30, Stoke held $354.3 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities and later raised $65.7 million through its ATM program; management says about $420 million can fund operations through potential U.S. commercialization in early 2028. Q2 revenue was $9.3 million, while net loss reached $61.6 million as research and launch-readiness spending increased. The June balance sheet showed $48.4 million of total liabilities and no borrowings. Biogen also bears 30% of agreed zorevunersen development costs, materially improving liquidity despite accelerating losses.

What could change the storyPhase 3 proof could unlock major value; further equity issuance or weaker data would erode it.

Management has used equity to extend runway: 2.57 million ATM shares raised $80.7 million in the first quarter, and about 2.1 million more raised $65.7 million after June. That avoids leverage but dilutes each existing share’s ownership. Employee inducement options add smaller future dilution. The strongest upside catalyst is clean Phase 3 replication plus regulatory alignment, while STK-002 data in 2027 could add a second program. The main downside is continued high cash burn before proof, especially if timelines slip and another financing is required.

AI: News

Four-year data strengthen caseLong-term zorevunersen follow-up showed durable seizure reductions and continued cognition and behavior improvements through four years.

On September 3, Stoke and Biogen reported four-year open-label extension results from earlier zorevunersen studies. Among eligible patients, 75 of 81 entered extensions and 58 remained at the four-year cutoff. The companies reported statistically significant cognition and behavior improvements at years one through four, durable seizure reductions, reductions in severe seizure types, and acceptable tolerability. The results strengthen the disease-modification thesis, but the open-label design means the randomized Phase 3 study remains the key valuation test.

Runway extended into 2028A summer equity raise lifted liquidity while quarterly losses rose sharply with Phase 3 and launch preparation.

On August 3, Stoke reported Q2 revenue of $9.3 million and a net loss of $61.6 million as research and commercial-readiness spending increased. Cash and marketable securities were $354.3 million at June 30, and a subsequent ATM sale added $65.7 million, taking pro forma liquidity to about $420 million. Management expects that to fund operations through potential U.S. commercialization in early 2028. The financing reduces near-term funding risk, but it came through new shares, so dilution is part of the tradeoff.

EMPEROR primary cohort enrolledStoke completed the 162-patient pivotal cohort, keeping the planned 2027 data and FDA filing path intact.

On June 30, Stoke completed enrollment of 162 patients across the United States, United Kingdom, and Japan in Phase 3 EMPEROR. The randomized, sham-controlled study measures major motor seizure change at week 28 and developmental outcomes through week 52. Management expects Phase 3 data in Q3 2027, with a rolling NDA planned to begin in Q1 2027 and finish after pivotal data. Enrollment completion removes one execution risk, but efficacy and safety remain binary until the blinded study reads out.

Loading local price history

Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Revenue	$184.4M	$36.6M	$8.8M	$12.4M	—	—	—	—
Research & development	$137.9M	$89.1M	$82.2M	$77.8M	$54.2M	$32.2M	$23.8M	$8.4M
Operating expenses	$205.0M	$137.9M	$123.6M	$116.8M	$86.1M	$53.0M	$35.7M	$12.8M
Operating income	−$20.6M	−$101.4M	−$114.8M	−$104.4M	−$86.1M	−$53.0M	−$35.7M	−$12.8M
Operating margin	−11.16%	−277.31%	−1,307.21%	−841.24%	—	—	—	—
EBITDA	−$18.8M	−$99.2M	−$112.3M	−$102.8M	−$85.1M	−$52.2M	−$35.2M	−$12.6M
EBITDA margin	−10.20%	−271.36%	−1,279.09%	−828.78%	—	—	—	—
Net income	−$6.9M	−$89.0M	−$104.7M	−$101.1M	−$85.8M	−$52.2M	−$32.3M	−$12.5M
Net profit margin	−3.73%	−243.42%	−1,192.47%	−814.73%	—	—	—	—
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.12	-$1.65	-$2.38	-$2.60	-$2.34	-$1.56	-$1.80	-$17.65
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.12	-$1.65	-$2.38	-$2.60	-$2.34	-$1.56	-$1.80	-$17.65

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

9.42%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.5.88M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of STOK
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	9.42%5.88M shares
RTW INVESTMENTS, LP	9.01%5.62M shares
FMR LLC	8.51%5.31M shares
Lynx1 Capital Management LP	6.47%4.04M shares
Redmile Group, LLC	6.32%3.95M shares
Skorpios Trust / Ezbon International Ltd / Montrago Trustees Ltd / Blue Horizon Enterprise Ltd	≈6.26%3.91M shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	5.64%3.52M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	5.53%3.45M shares
BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP	5.35%3.34M shares
TORONTO DOMINION BANK	5.09%3.17M shares
STATE STREET CORP	4.57%2.85M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	4.27%2.66M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.15%2.59M shares
BVF INC/IL	4.08%2.55M shares
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	3.87%2.42M shares
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.	3.62%2.26M shares
Siren, L.L.C.	3.20%2M shares
DEERFIELD MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.	2.92%1.82M shares
Jupiter Topco LLC	2.91%1.81M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.44%1.52M shares

Percentages use 62.4M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Reported positions exceed 100% in total, so the circle shows the selected holder only.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)115$95.20M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 16, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Allan JonathanGENERAL COUNSEL & CORP SEC	SellCommon Stock	1.5K	$29.95	$43.6K	18.1K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ticho BarryCHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	1.8K	$30.58	$54.9K	34.8K
May 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ticho BarryCHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	2.2K	$32.79	$73.5K	36.6K
Apr 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ticho BarryCHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	1.8K	$32.66	$60.0K	38.9K
Mar 20, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Allan JonathanGENERAL COUNSEL & CORP SEC	SellCommon Stock	601	$34.41	$20.7K	19.5K