StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)

Price$6.43Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look inexpensive on expected cash earnings, but unusual cash flows and dilution limit confidence.

At the observed market value, equity value is about $2.3 billion and enterprise value—company value including debt and subtracting cash—is about $2.0 billion. Against 2026 guidance for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $400-$420 million, that is roughly 4.8-5.1 times enterprise value to that measure. Applying the recent 19% revenue share to $10.1-$10.3 billion of expected ticket sales implies roughly $1.9-$2.0 billion revenue, or about one times enterprise value. Cheap if durable, but cash-flow quality and dilution support Fair-priced.

Big pictureRevenue has grown strongly, but profits have not yet proved durable across changing event calendars.

From 2022 through 2025, revenue rose from $1.04 billion to $1.75 billion, yet operating income moved from a $217 million loss to profits of $253 million and $138 million, then a $1.34 billion loss. The 2025 collapse largely reflects a $1.45 billion stock-compensation charge and a $479 million tax-related valuation allowance, but it still shows reported earnings can be noisy. Through June 2026, revenue rose 23% and net income reached $62.7 million versus a $76.0 million loss, helped by World Cup demand.

Business strengthThe marketplace is scaling, and debt reduction has improved resilience, though cash claims are not all available to shareholders.

Second-quarter GMS, the total value of tickets sold through the platform, rose 34% to $3.1 billion; revenue grew 33% to $573.1 million while gross margin stayed high at 82%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 94% to $105.7 million, and free cash flow—cash left after operations and investment—was $309.7 million versus $9.7 million. Cash was $1.7 billion against $1.4 billion debt, but $1.2 billion was owed to sellers; including those amounts, leverage was 3.0 times trailing adjusted EBITDA. Debt fell $1.1 billion in twelve months.

What could change the storyThe upside needs continued growth without repeating World Cup costs, while regulation and stock awards could shrink shareholder returns.

Management raised 2026 GMS guidance to $10.1-$10.3 billion while keeping adjusted EBITDA at $400-$420 million. If achieved, the current valuation could rerate upward as debt falls. The bear case is visible: second-quarter costs rose 37% versus 33% revenue growth, six-month stock compensation reached $100 million, and common shares rose roughly 10% from year-end to June. Ontario and proposed Washington, D.C. resale caps could reduce the platform’s percentage fee or seller supply. The current price requires guidance delivery, contained dilution, and no major regulatory hit.

AI: News

Q2 earnings shockRecord World Cup demand lifted sales, but a near-zero profit result sent shares sharply lower.

On August 12, StubHub reported record GMS of $3.1 billion and revenue of $573.1 million, both up about one-third year over year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $105.7 million, but adjusted earnings per share were essentially zero versus a reported $0.24 analyst expectation in market coverage. The company raised 2026 GMS guidance to $10.1-$10.3 billion but kept adjusted EBITDA guidance at $400-$420 million. Market coverage reported a roughly 13% after-hours decline, indicating profit quality mattered more than volume growth.

World Cup failuresWorld Cup fulfillment complaints and a customer lawsuit raised questions about guarantees, trust, and future operating costs.

In June, the Associated Press documented buyers unable to receive World Cup tickets bought through StubHub; it later reported a federal lawsuit filed in early July by two customers alleging cancellations and misleading communications. StubHub blamed FIFA’s transfer systems and said its guarantee provides replacement tickets or refunds, while FIFA disputed responsibility. Direct financial exposure was not disclosed, so the valuation effect is uncertain, but failures can increase refunds, replacement costs, legal expense, and damage trust during high-value events.

Pricing rules tightenedRegulators and lawmakers are tightening fee and resale rules, threatening the fees that support StubHub’s revenue.

On April 9, the FTC announced a $10 million settlement and consumer-redress program over mandatory fees not shown upfront. On June 23, the U.K. Competition and Markets Authority ordered refunds to 51,350 customers totaling more than £590,000 and imposed an £889,200 fine. These amounts are manageable beside annual revenue, but required upfront pricing can compress the company’s percentage fee or reduce seller participation. The D.C. Council also approved proposed legislation limiting resale markups to 10% above the original ticket price.

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Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$1.75B	$1.77B	$1.37B	$1.04B
Gross profit	$1.43B	$1.44B	$1.14B	$851.1M
Gross margin	82.01%	81.13%	83.05%	82.10%
Operating expenses	$3.09B	$1.63B	$1.11B	$1.07B
Operating income	−$1.34B	$138.1M	$253.2M	−$217.4M
Operating margin	−77.01%	7.80%	18.52%	−20.97%
EBITDA	−$1.32B	$162.6M	$276.0M	−$43.7M
EBITDA margin	−75.54%	9.18%	20.18%	−4.22%
Net income	−$1.91B	−$2.8M	$405.2M	−$261.0M
Net profit margin	−109.21%	−0.16%	29.63%	−25.17%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$6.25	-$0.18	$1.16	-$0.97
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$6.27	-$0.18	$1.14	-$0.97

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈21.33%of listed shares

PATTERSON THOMAS75.79M shares · Sep 16, 2025

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of STUB
Holder	% owned
PATTERSON THOMAS	≈21.33%75.79M shares
Penner Gregory Boyd / McJunkin Jameson J / MADRONE CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC / Madrone SHV Partners, LLC / Madrone Partners, L.P. / Madrone Opportunity Fund, L.P.	≈21.33%75.78M shares
MADRONE ADVISORS, LLC	21.33%75.78M shares
Levine Jeremy S.	≈7.63%27.11M shares
Deer Management Co. LLC	6.20%22.04M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	3.95%14.03M shares
WestCap Management, LLC	3.92%13.93M shares
Baker Eric Howard	≈3.48%12.37M shares
PointState Capital LP	2.80%9.96M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	2.48%8.8M shares
Islam Nayaab	≈2.40%8.54M shares
Capital World Investors	2.33%8.3M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.30%8.16M shares
StepStone Group LP	2.13%7.56M shares
NEUBERGER BERMAN GROUP LLC	2.07%7.37M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	1.84%6.54M shares
KLINGENSTEIN FIELDS & CO LP	1.75%6.23M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.67%5.92M shares
Rubric Capital Management LP	1.41%5M shares
ENTRUST GLOBAL PARTNERS L L C	1.28%4.53M shares

Percentages use 355.27M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Reported positions exceed 100% in total, so the circle shows the selected holder only.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)7$2.84M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 26, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Islam NayaabSee Remarks	SellClass A Common Stock	25.1K	$12.05	$302.2K	8.54M
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Islam NayaabSee Remarks	SellClass A Common Stock	16.7K	$11.37	$190.1K	8.56M
Jun 11, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Fitzgerald Scott MichaelPrincipal Accounting Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	867	$10.33	$9.0K	217.6K
May 14, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Streams MarkSee Remarks	SellClass A Common Stock	232.6K	$9.04	$2.10M	1.11M
May 11, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Fitzgerald Scott MichaelPrincipal Accounting Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	1.6K	$7.57	$12.2K	93.4K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)

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