Tamboran Resources Corp (TBN)

Price$39.00Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe valuation looks rich because the price already assumes successful production growth.

At the observed quote, 34.9 million equivalent shares imply a market value near $1.36 billion. Subtracting pro forma cash of $298 million and $23 million of project debt leaves roughly $1.09 billion for the operating assets. That is about 2.3 times March attributable book value plus April’s net financing proceeds. Because Tamboran had no revenue through March and has not demonstrated steady production cash flow, this valuation requires substantial success beyond the initial pilot project.

Big pictureFirst gas reduces project risk, but durable earnings remain unproven.

Tamboran moved from appraisal to initial sales, yet its financial history remains loss-making: fiscal 2025 produced no revenue, a $36.9 million net loss and $29.6 million of operating cash use. During the first nine months of fiscal 2026, operations used about $27 million and investing used another $113 million. Compared with pro forma cash of $298 million, that pace represents roughly 19 months of funding. Construction completion and gas receipts should help, but future drilling could keep cash use high.

Business strengthA government contract and stronger cash cushion the risky production ramp.

At March 2026, current assets of $118.1 million covered current liabilities twice, while cash exceeded total debt by $17.4 million; April financing strengthened that position further. The initial 40 terajoules-per-day contract is take-or-pay, meaning the government generally pays for reserved volume, with confidential fixed pricing linked to inflation. That limits early price swings. However, commissioning gas receives a discount, pilot profitability remains undisclosed, and larger East Coast or export ambitions would depend on new infrastructure and more cyclical market pricing.

What could change the storyFull output and controlled spending could justify the premium; delays would expose it.

The bull case strengthens if production reaches 40 terajoules per day by early 2027, generates dependable cash after operating and drilling costs, and supports proved reserves or a well-funded development partner. The bear case strengthens if output disappoints or cash keeps falling before larger-scale sales. Capital allocation is crucial: equivalent shares rose from 16.7 million in June 2025 to about 34.9 million after financings and the Falcon acquisition. Further share issuance would divide future value among still more owners.

AI: News

First gas salesTamboran began selling gas, proving its pilot system works while leaving the production ramp unfinished.

On September 8, Tamboran reported initial deliveries from Shenandoah South into the Northern Territory network. Production is expected to rise to the contracted 40 terajoules per day by early 2027; commissioning volumes receive a discounted price because supply can be interrupted. New York shares gained about 2% that session, although timing alone cannot establish that the announcement caused the move. The milestone reduces construction risk but does not yet demonstrate full-rate economics.

Record stimulation campaignThree completed wells improved confidence that enough gas can reach the new processing facility.

On July 20, Tamboran said it completed stimulation, cleanout and completion work on three Shenandoah South wells. The campaign placed 178 stages across roughly 30,000 feet and included the basin’s first trial of locally produced sand. The wells were intended for connection to the processing facility, while three more wells entered drilling. Better completion speed and cheaper local materials could lower future well costs, but sustained production results will matter more than completion records.

Falcon acquisition completedThe Falcon deal expanded Tamboran’s acreage while issuing many new shares to fund the consolidation.

Tamboran completed the Falcon Oil & Gas subsidiary acquisition on May 28 after court approval. It issued 6.54 million shares, lifting total equivalent common shares to about 34.86 million, and increased its net prospective acreage to roughly 2.8 million acres. The deal consolidated overlapping Beetaloo interests and may simplify future development. However, the new shares expanded the ownership base substantially, so the added acreage must create enough value to offset dilution for earlier shareholders.

Large equity financingFresh capital funded development plans but sharply increased the number of claims on future value.

On April 7, Tamboran priced 2.96 million public shares, plus an underwriter option, at $35 each for expected gross proceeds of $103.5 million. Entitlement offerings formed part of the broader financing package, later reported at about $188 million net. Management allocated the money to pilot drilling, resource testing and working capital. The raise materially reduced near-term funding pressure, but it followed other equity issuance and reinforced Tamboran’s dependence on external capital before meaningful operating cash generation.

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Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

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2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0
Research & development	$6.0M	$0	—	—
Operating expenses	$39.3M	$20.5M	$19.3M	$10.0M
Operating income	−$39.3M	−$20.5M	−$19.4M	−$10.5M
EBITDA	−$39.2M	−$20.4M	−$19.3M	−$10.2M
Net income	−$36.9M	−$21.9M	−$32.0M	−$10.8M
Basic EPSper basic share	-$2.52	-$2.32	-$0.02	-$0.01
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$2.52	-$2.32	-$0.02	-$0.01

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Ownership data is not available for this listing yet.

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys20$24.87M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Apr 13, 2026Form 4	PACE PHILLIP ZDirector	BuyCommon Stock	10.0K	$36.99	$369.9K	35.8K
Apr 8, 2026Form 4	SHEFFIELD SCOTT DDirector	BuyCommon Stock	7.0K	$36.02	$251.8K	292.4K
Nov 21, 2025Form 4	PACE PHILLIP ZDirector	BuyCommon Stock	2.0K	$23.50	$47.0K	2.0K
Jul 22, 2025Form 4	Formentera Investments LLC +5TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	563.7K	$17.74	$10.00M	3.12M
Aug 30, 2024Form 4	Sheffield Bryan +2TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	12.4K	$20.12	$250.0K	2.25M

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Tamboran Resources Corp (TBN)

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