Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)

Price$121.63Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 01:16 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because today’s price already assumes strong earnings growth and continued recovery.

Using TD’s fiscal-2025 adjusted earnings of C$8.37 per share, the shares trade near 19 times underlying earnings. Applying management’s fiscal-2026 goal of 6%–8% adjusted earnings growth lowers that to roughly 18 times expected earnings. The price also equals about 2.1 times fiscal-2025 book value per share. Those are demanding levels for a bank earning a mid-teens return on shareholder capital while its U.S. growth remains restricted. Strong execution can justify a premium, but a value investor gets little margin for disappointment.

Big pictureUnderlying profits are improving, but recent headline earnings exaggerate the bank’s normal earning power.

Reported net income jumped to C$20.0 billion in fiscal 2025, but adjusted income was only C$14.5 billion because selling TD’s Schwab stake created a large one-time gain. Adjusted earnings per share rose modestly from C$7.81 in 2024 to C$8.37 in 2025. Momentum improved afterward: adjusted earnings per share reached C$4.82 for the first half of fiscal 2026, up 21% from C$3.99. Bank cash-flow statements swing heavily with deposits and securities, so recurring earnings and credit losses are more informative than conventional free cash flow.

Business strengthTD has ample capital, improving core profits, and aggressive buybacks that raise each remaining share’s claim.

TD ended fiscal 2025 with C$1.3 trillion of deposits and a 14.7% common-equity capital ratio, a regulatory measure of loss-absorbing capital. That ratio remained strong at 14.3% in the second quarter of 2026. Adjusted quarterly earnings rose 15% year over year, while Canadian personal and commercial banking profit rose 15%. TD also completed an C$8 billion buyback and authorized another program up to C$7 billion; supplied financial history shows shares outstanding falling from 1.791 billion in 2023 to 1.689 billion in 2025, more than offsetting recent stock-based compensation.

What could change the storyFaster U.S. remediation could justify the premium, while weaker credit or delayed relief would undermine it.

The strongest bull case is sustained mid-teens returns, continued buybacks and eventual removal of U.S. growth restrictions, allowing TD to deploy capital into higher-return lending rather than hold excess capacity. The bear case is that investors are paying a premium before that outcome is proven. U.S. regulators imposed growth restrictions after serious money-laundering control failures, and TD says substantial remediation work remains. Credit is currently supportive: second-quarter provisions for loan losses were 0.33% of loans in Canadian banking. A lasting rise in losses or slower remediation would make roughly 18 times expected earnings difficult to defend.

AI: News

Strong second-quarter earningsTD delivered better underlying profit growth, strengthening confidence that its core banking businesses are recovering.

On May 28, TD reported adjusted second-quarter net income of C$4.17 billion, up 15% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of C$2.38 per share, up 21%. Canadian personal and commercial banking profit increased 15%, while interest income benefited from loan growth and stronger margins. Reuters reported that TD had already risen roughly 20% during 2026 around the release period, although that longer move cannot be attributed solely to this quarter.

Dividend and buybacks expandTD is returning more excess capital to shareholders while still keeping a strong regulatory capital cushion.

TD declared a quarterly dividend of C$1.12 per share on May 28, up from C$1.08, while continuing substantial repurchases. Its C$8 billion fiscal-2025 buyback was completed in January, and a new program allows purchases of up to C$7 billion, subject to a 61-million-share limit. TD repurchased 23.2 million shares under the newer program by April 30. This supports earnings per share, but buying aggressively at higher valuations creates less value than repurchasing discounted shares.

Insurance losses riseHigher catastrophe claims will reduce upcoming insurance profit, though the amount is modest beside group earnings.

TD disclosed on August 5 that third-quarter catastrophe claims, after reinsurance recoveries, are expected to total C$117 million before tax. Comparable catastrophe claims were C$36 million in the third quarter of 2025 and zero in the immediately preceding quarter. The increase will directly raise insurance-service expenses in Wealth Management and Insurance. It is meaningful for that segment but small relative to TD’s multi-billion-dollar quarterly group profit, so it does not materially change the long-term valuation by itself.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Revenue	$67.78B	$57.22B	$50.69B	$49.03B	$42.69B	$43.65B	$41.06B	$38.89B	$36.20B	$34.31B
Net income	$20.54B	$8.84B	$10.63B	$17.43B	$14.30B	$11.89B	$11.69B	$11.33B	$10.52B	$8.94B
Net profit margin	30.30%	15.45%	20.98%	35.55%	33.49%	27.25%	28.46%	29.14%	29.05%	26.04%
Basic EPSper basic share	CA$11.57	CA$4.73	CA$5.53	CA$9.48	CA$7.73	CA$6.43	CA$6.26	CA$6.02	CA$5.51	CA$4.68
Diluted EPSper diluted share	CA$11.56	CA$4.72	CA$5.52	CA$9.47	CA$7.72	CA$6.43	CA$6.25	CA$6.01	CA$5.50	CA$4.67

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of TD
Holder	Shares held
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA	106.82M
BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/	62.73M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	50.84M
CIBC WORLD MARKET INC.	36.19M
FIL Ltd	30.47M
1832 Asset Management L.P.	28.08M
NATIONAL BANK OF CANADA /FI/	27.34M
TD Asset Management Inc	25.53M
MACKENZIE FINANCIAL CORP	22.89M
TD Waterhouse Canada Inc.	20.26M
NORGES BANK	20.02M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	19.24M
MANUFACTURERS LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY, THE	16.94M
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO	14.82M
Vanguard Global Advisers, LLC	12.84M
CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD	12.68M
CIBC Asset Management Inc	12.66M
BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA	11.95M
Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd.	11.85M
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/	11.16M

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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