Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM)

Price$34.17Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because stronger cash generation offsets a demanding growth-and-metals premium.

At the observed market price, the stock is about 29 times 2025 earnings and about 22 times 2025 operating cash flow per share, meaning cash generated by normal business activity. If first-half 2026 performance simply repeats, the multiples fall to roughly 20 times adjusted earnings and 16 times operating cash flow. Adjusted earnings remove unusual accounting gains, making them a cleaner yardstick. That is not cheap, but it is reasonable if elevated metal prices persist and the 2030 sales outlook is achieved.

Big pictureCash generation has strengthened sharply, but recent profits depend heavily on unusually high metal prices.

Operating cash flow stayed positive every year from 2021 through 2025, rising from $120.0 million to $312.8 million, while revenue increased from $150.4 million to $388.7 million. Net income reached $240.0 million in 2025 after a $23.1 million loss in 2024, showing accounting earnings can swing more than cash. In first-half 2026, operating cash flow increased 58% to $224.6 million while metal sales volume rose only 2%. Average gold and silver prices were 53% and 141% higher, so the latest growth rate should not be treated as permanent.

Business strengthHigh margins and manageable debt support the business, while past share dilution remains a clear weakness.

Triple Flag ended 2025 with $71.3 million of cash and no debt. After funding Ravenswood, June 2026 cash fell to $15.2 million and debt rose to $235.0 million, leaving about $220 million of net debt, meaning borrowings minus cash. That is under 10% of shareholders’ equity and roughly half of annualized first-half operating cash flow. First-half asset margin was 93%, meaning most revenue remained after direct contract costs. Dividends used about 15% of 2025 operating cash flow, while second-quarter buybacks partly offset past dilution. Shares outstanding still rose about 33% from 2022 to 2025.

What could change the storyGrowth projects can justify today’s premium, but lower metal prices would quickly weaken the valuation case.

The bull case is a larger, more diversified portfolio. The 2030 sales outlook of 150,000 to 160,000 gold-equivalent ounces, a common unit that converts different metals into gold value, is about 48% above the midpoint of current 2026 guidance. Ravenswood adds targeted deliveries before broader mine growth. The bear case is price sensitivity: first-half 2026 gold and silver averages were far above 2025 levels, while Cerro Lindo’s silver share already stepped down from 65% to 25%. If metals retreat before new projects ramp, cash growth could stall and today’s valuation would look expensive.

AI: News

Q2 cash flow surgeSecond-quarter cash flow jumped, the sales outlook stayed stronger, and the dividend rose for a fifth year.

On August 5, Triple Flag reported second-quarter revenue of $129.2 million and operating cash flow of $111.2 million, up from $94.1 million and $76.1 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share rose to $0.39 from $0.24, and management expected 2026 metal sales near the midpoint to high end of 100,000 to 110,000 gold-equivalent ounces. The quarterly dividend increased to $0.06. Shares rose about 2.7% the following trading day, though timing alone does not prove the results caused the move.

Ravenswood gold dealThe Ravenswood gold deal added immediate cash flow but also brought meaningful new borrowing onto the balance sheet.

Triple Flag announced Ravenswood on June 12 and completed it June 25 for $440 million. A stream is a contract that exchanges upfront funding for future metal deliveries at a low ongoing payment. Triple Flag initially receives 5.5% of payable gold, with 22,928 targeted ounces through the second quarter of 2028, and generally pays 10% of spot gold value at first. The deal lifted the 2030 sales outlook to 150,000 to 160,000 gold-equivalent ounces but also helped push June-end debt to $235 million from zero at year-end.

Steppe dispute resolvedThe Steppe settlement cleared overdue deliveries and replaced them with a decade of fixed gold deliveries.

On June 11, Steppe delivered all overdue metal and prepaid amounts, including 1,946 ounces of gold, 15,618 ounces of silver and 1,650 prepaid gold ounces. The amended agreement then fixed 34,770 ounces of gold deliveries from the third quarter of 2026 through 2036, with no ongoing payments and additional guarantees. Triple Flag simultaneously raised 2026 sales guidance to 100,000 to 110,000 gold-equivalent ounces. The settlement removed a counterparty collection problem and converted uncertainty into scheduled deliveries, directly improving near-term visibility.

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Revenue

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2022

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2025

Net income

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2022

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2025

Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Revenue	$388.7M	$269.0M	$204.0M	$151.9M	$150.4M
Gross profit	$262.9M	$155.2M	$102.1M	$87.0M	$83.3M
Gross margin	67.64%	57.70%	50.03%	57.28%	55.35%
Research & development	$5.6M	$3.4M	$4.2M	$3.0M	$771,000
Operating expenses	$42.1M	$173.2M	$61.1M	$22.9M	$14.5M
Operating income	$220.8M	−$18.0M	$40.9M	$64.1M	$68.7M
Operating margin	56.81%	−6.69%	20.06%	42.21%	45.70%
EBITDA	$353.2M	$68.7M	$109.2M	$113.6M	—
EBITDA margin	90.85%	25.56%	53.52%	74.82%	—
Net income	$240.0M	−$23.1M	$36.3M	$55.1M	$45.5M
Net profit margin	61.74%	−8.58%	17.78%	36.27%	30.27%
Basic EPSper basic share	$1.18	-$0.11	$0.18	$0.35	$0.31
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$1.18	-$0.11	$0.18	$0.35	$0.31

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of TFPM
Holder	Shares held
Elliott Investment Management L.P.	133.24M
FMR LLC	4.67M
Tidal Investments LLC	2.95M
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.	2.74M
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	2.34M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.01M
WHITEBOX ADVISORS LLC	1.52M
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	1.39M
Dixon Mitchell Investment Counsel Inc.	1.28M
Beutel, Goodman & Co Ltd.	1.18M
MORGAN STANLEY	1.12M
Invesco Ltd.	1.05M
SPROTT INC.	1.01M
Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd.	978.4K
NORGES BANK	971.56K
Nuveen, LLC	880.62K
TORONTO DOMINION BANK	652.11K
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	621.21K
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO	615.32K
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	613.15K

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

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Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM)

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