Target Corp (TGT)

Price$156.15Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-25 03:14 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkAround $159, Target already prices in a strong turnaround with little margin for disappointment.

A recent August 20 quote put Target near $159, after the shares closed at $159 on August 19 following earnings. Against Target's 2026 guidance excluding the one-time tariff refund, normalized earnings are roughly $8.25-$9.25 a share, so the stock costs about 17-19 times those earnings. Fiscal 2025 free cash flow, meaning cash left after operations and capital spending, was only $2.84 billion, implying roughly 25 times that cash. For a mature retailer, that leaves limited value-investor protection if growth slows.

Big pictureSales are recovering, but Target's long record shows profits and cash can swing sharply.

Revenue fell from $109.1 billion in fiscal 2022 to $104.8 billion in fiscal 2025, while diluted earnings ranged from $5.98 to $14.10 over fiscal 2021-2025. Operating cash flow also ranged from $4.0 billion to $8.6 billion during fiscal 2021-2025. Fiscal 2025 produced $6.56 billion of operating cash but required $3.73 billion of capital spending. The recent recovery is encouraging, yet this history shows Target's earnings are cyclical rather than steadily compounding, which argues against paying a premium valuation without a margin of safety.

Business strengthTarget remains profitable and shareholder-friendly, but debt and heavier investment reduce financial flexibility.

At January 31, Target held $5.49 billion of cash against $14.33 billion of debt, leaving about $8.84 billion of net debt. Equity had strengthened to $16.17 billion from $11.23 billion three years earlier. Shares outstanding fell about 9.6% from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2025, showing meaningful historical buybacks, while dividends reached $2.05 billion in fiscal 2025. However, buybacks dropped to $408 million and essentially stopped in first-half 2026 as capital spending accelerated; shares outstanding actually edged higher by August 2026.

What could change the storySustained sales growth and better normal margins could justify today's price; weaker execution could undo it.

The bull case is now concrete: second-quarter comparable sales rose 3.8%, traffic rose 3.6%, digital sales grew 8.7%, and management lifted 2026 sales growth guidance to around 5%. Excluding tariff refunds, management expects the full-year operating margin about half a percentage point above fiscal 2025's adjusted 4.6%. The bear case is valuation: at $159, Target needs normalized earnings near $10-$11 a share to look inexpensive at a value-oriented 15-16 times earnings. Apparel and home remain weaker, while faster-growing grocery carries lower margins.

AI: News

Second-quarter turnaround acceleratesTarget beat sales expectations and raised its outlook, strengthening confidence that customer traffic is recovering.

On August 19, 2026, Target reported second-quarter net sales of $26.54 billion, up 5.3%, with comparable sales up 3.8% versus roughly 2.5% expected. Traffic increased 3.6% and digital comparable sales rose 8.7%. Management raised full-year sales growth guidance to around 5%. Reuters reported shares gained about 5% as investors digested the results, although attributing the full move solely to earnings would overstate certainty.

Tariff refund boosts profitA nearly $1 billion refund inflated reported profit, making the headline earnings jump less repeatable.

On August 19, Target disclosed a $994 million pretax tariff refund, adding $752 million to net income and $1.65 to second-quarter earnings per share. Reported earnings were $4.11 per share, double the prior year, but management said earnings still grew about 20% after excluding the refund. Full-year guidance of $9.90-$10.90 includes that $1.65 benefit and excludes future refunds, so investors should value the business mainly on the lower underlying earnings level.

First-quarter recovery broadensMay results showed the turnaround was gaining traction before the latest quarter confirmed the improvement.

On May 20, 2026, Target reported first-quarter net sales growth of 6.7%, comparable traffic growth of 4.4%, and digital comparable sales growth of 8.9%. Management raised its full-year sales outlook to around 4%, from a weaker initial expectation. The supplied financial history shows first-quarter net income of $781 million and earnings of $1.71 per diluted share. This earlier improvement matters because August's strong results were not an isolated quarter, reducing—but not eliminating—the risk of a temporary rebound.

Dividend rises modestlyTarget raised its dividend again, but the small increase signals caution while investment spending remains elevated.

On June 11, 2026, Target increased its quarterly dividend 1.8% to $1.16 per share, putting the company on track for its 55th consecutive annual dividend increase. At a roughly $159 share price, that annualized payout yields about 2.9%. The record supports cash-return durability, but the increase was modest and first-half 2026 stock repurchases were only $3 million while capital expenditures reached $2.40 billion, showing management is currently prioritizing stores and operations over buybacks.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$104.78B	$106.57B	$107.41B	$109.12B	$106.00B	$93.56B	$78.11B	$75.36B	$72.71B	$70.27B	$73.78B	$72.62B	$71.28B	$73.30B	$69.86B	$67.39B	$65.36B	$64.95B	$63.37B
Gross profit	$29.27B	$30.06B	$29.58B	$26.81B	$31.04B	$27.38B	$23.25B	$22.06B	$20.75B	$20.35B	$21.54B	$21.34B	$21.24B	$22.73B	$22.00B	$21.66B	$21.30B	$20.79B	$20.44B
Gross margin	27.93%	28.21%	27.54%	24.57%	29.28%	29.27%	29.76%	29.27%	28.54%	28.96%	29.20%	29.39%	29.80%	31.01%	31.50%	32.15%	32.58%	32.01%	32.25%
Operating expenses	$24.15B	$24.50B	$23.88B	$22.97B	$22.10B	$20.84B	$18.59B	$17.95B	$16.53B	$15.49B	—	—	—	$17.53B	$16.75B	$16.50B	$16.72B	—	—
Operating income	$5.12B	$5.57B	$5.71B	$3.85B	$8.95B	$6.54B	$4.66B	$4.11B	$4.22B	$4.86B	—	—	—	$5.21B	$5.25B	$5.17B	$4.58B	—	—
Operating margin	4.88%	5.22%	5.31%	3.53%	8.44%	6.99%	5.96%	5.45%	5.81%	6.92%	—	—	—	7.10%	7.51%	7.67%	7.00%	—	—
EBITDA	$8.25B	$8.55B	$8.51B	$6.55B	$11.59B	$9.02B	$7.26B	$6.58B	$6.70B	$7.18B	—	—	—	$7.25B	$7.38B	$7.25B	$6.60B	—	—
EBITDA margin	7.87%	8.02%	7.92%	6.00%	10.93%	9.65%	9.30%	8.74%	9.21%	10.22%	—	—	—	9.89%	10.56%	10.76%	10.10%	—	—
Net income	$3.71B	$4.09B	$4.14B	$2.78B	$6.95B	$4.37B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	$2.93B	$2.92B	$2.49B	$2.21B	$2.85B
Net profit margin	3.54%	3.84%	3.85%	2.55%	6.55%	4.67%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.19%	4.33%	3.81%	3.41%	4.50%
Basic EPSper basic share	$8.16	$8.89	$8.96	$6.02	$14.23	$8.72	$6.42	$5.55	$5.32	$4.73	$5.35	-$2.58	$3.10	$4.57	$4.31	$4.03	$3.31	$2.87	$3.37
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$8.13	$8.86	$8.94	$5.98	$14.10	$8.64	$6.36	$5.51	$5.29	$4.69	$5.31	-$2.56	$3.07	$4.52	$4.28	$4.00	$3.30	$2.86	$3.33

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈8.52%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.38.7M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of TGT
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	≈8.52%38.7M shares
STATE STREET CORP	≈7.94%36.05M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	≈6.53%29.64M shares
FMR LLC	≈5.42%24.63M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	≈4.86%22.06M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	≈3.40%15.45M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	≈2.39%10.84M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	≈1.51%6.86M shares
Bank of New York Mellon Corp	≈1.40%6.37M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	≈1.38%6.25M shares
NORGES BANK	≈1.35%6.12M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	≈1.29%5.86M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	≈1.07%4.85M shares
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA	≈1.03%4.66M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	≈1.01%4.58M shares
UBS AM, a distinct business unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC	≈0.99%4.51M shares
Invesco Ltd.	≈0.95%4.34M shares
Capital World Investors	≈0.85%3.86M shares
Nuveen, LLC	≈0.81%3.69M shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	≈0.72%3.27M shares

Percentages use 454.19M shares of this listed class outstanding on May 22, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)14$34.01M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 29, 2026Form 4	ROATH LISA RExecutive Officer	SellCommon Stock	7.0K	$138.07	$966.5K	35.5K
May 29, 2026Form 4	SYLVESTER CARA AExecutive Officer	SellCommon Stock	10.0K	$125.89	$1.26M	45.9K
May 27, 2026Form 4	Cornell Brian CExecutive Officer	SellCommon Stock · indirect	1.0K	$130.55	$130.6K	193.3K
May 27, 2026Form 4	Cornell Brian CExecutive Officer	SellCommon Stock · indirect	49.0K	$129.84	$6.36M	194.3K
Mar 17, 2026Form 4	LIEGEL MATTHEW AChief Accounting Officer	SellCommon Stock	2.1K	$117.19	$240.6K	12.1K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Target Corp (TGT)

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