Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkAt $342.27, Tesla’s proven earnings and cash flow do not support its market value.

MarketWatch’s latest regular-session close was $342.27 on August 14. Using 3.950 billion shares outstanding, Tesla is valued near $1.35 trillion. It earned roughly $3.8 billion over the latest four reported quarters and produced about $5.8 billion of free cash flow—cash left after operations and capital spending. That equals roughly 355 times earnings and 234 times free cash flow. Even a generous 40-times earnings value requires about $34 billion of durable yearly profit, nearly nine times the recent level.

Big pictureVehicle demand rebounded, but profit and cash remain too uneven for this valuation.

Fiscal 2025 revenue fell 2.9% to $94.8 billion, while operating income dropped 38% to $4.36 billion and net income nearly halved to $3.79 billion. Second-quarter 2026 revenue then rebounded 26% to $28.24 billion on record deliveries, yet operating income was only $398 million. Research spending rose 49% to $2.37 billion, and the quarter’s $1.11 billion net income included a $1.01 billion unrealized SpaceX gain and a $274 million tax benefit. Cyclical vehicle demand makes one delivery surge insufficient proof of durable profit.

Business strengthTesla can fund its bets, but stock awards have sharply diluted each share.

At June 30, Tesla held $43.5 billion of cash and short-term investments against $9.3 billion of debt and finance leases; current assets were $68.8 billion versus $35.4 billion of current liabilities. That provides substantial protection. However, first-half capital spending reached $8.28 billion, Tesla invested $2.00 billion in SpaceX, and shares outstanding rose from 3.216 billion at December 2024 to 3.950 billion. Large executive awards and option exercises drove much of that dilution, while no buyback or dividend offset appears in the supplied history.

What could change the storyRobotaxis could justify more value, but investors need proof of profitable scale.

The bull case rests on 480,126 second-quarter vehicle deliveries, 13.5 gigawatt-hours of storage deployments and robotaxi expansion into more cities. High-margin autonomy revenue or profitable robots could eventually outgrow the vehicle business. The bear case is that Nevada permitted only 10 of 5,000 requested robotaxis while Tesla plans over $25 billion of 2026 capital spending. The current price requires roughly $34 billion of durable earnings at a still-generous 40-times valuation, so paid autonomous scale and sustained positive cash generation must become measurable.

$342.27 price considered

AI: News

Record delivery reboundSecond-quarter deliveries jumped sharply, showing Tesla’s car business regained meaningful sales volume.

On July 2, Tesla reported 480,126 deliveries, about 25% above the year-earlier quarter, against production of 451,758 vehicles. Deliveries therefore exceeded production by more than 28,000, reducing accumulated inventory. Energy-storage deployments also reached 13.5 gigawatt-hours. The rebound supports revenue and factory use, but drawing down existing inventory cannot continue indefinitely. Future delivery growth must come from sustained customer demand rather than another large inventory release.

Profit miss and cash burnSales surged, but weak profit and heavy spending renewed doubts about returns on Tesla’s future bets.

On July 22, Tesla reported $28.24 billion of quarterly revenue, up 26%, but common-stockholder income slipped 5% to $1.11 billion. Capital spending of $5.79 billion exceeded operating cash flow of $4.70 billion, leaving negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion. Tesla also expects 2026 capital spending above $25 billion. Shares fell 14.5% on July 23. Earnings concerns were prominent, although broader technology weakness and an oil-price jump also affected that session.

Robotaxi rollout meets limitsTesla added cities, but Nevada’s tiny permit shows regulation may slow profitable scale.

Tesla expanded robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa on July 21, following launches in Austin, Dallas, Houston and Miami. Nevada’s July 27 permit then capped Las Vegas operations at 10 vehicles, although Tesla sought permission for up to 5,000. It also imposed a 45-mile-per-hour limit and required human supervision. This does not disprove autonomous economics, but it makes rapid scaling less certain. Paid rides, driverless miles, regulatory approvals and revenue now matter more than demonstration announcements.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009
Revenue	$94.83B	$97.69B	$96.77B	$81.46B	$53.82B	$31.54B	$24.58B	$21.46B	$11.76B	$7.00B	$4.05B	$3.20B	$2.01B	$413.3M	$204.2M	$116.7M	$111.9M
Gross profit	$17.09B	$17.45B	$17.66B	$20.85B	$13.61B	$6.63B	$4.07B	$4.04B	$2.22B	$1.60B	$923.5M	$881.7M	$456.3M	$30.1M	$61.6M	$30.7M	$9.5M
Research & development	$6.41B	$4.54B	$3.97B	$3.08B	$2.59B	$1.49B	$1.34B	$1.46B	$1.38B	$834.4M	$717.9M	$464.7M	$232.0M	$274.0M	$209.0M	$93.0M	$19.3M
Operating expenses	$12.74B	$10.37B	$8.77B	$7.20B	$7.08B	$4.64B	$4.14B	$4.43B	$3.85B	$2.27B	$1.64B	$1.07B	$517.5M	$424.4M	$313.1M	$177.6M	$61.4M
Operating income	$4.36B	$7.08B	$8.89B	$13.66B	$6.52B	$1.99B	−$69.0M	−$388.0M	−$1.63B	−$667.3M	−$716.6M	−$186.7M	−$61.3M	−$394.3M	−$251.5M	−$146.8M	−$51.9M
EBITDAderived	—	—	—	—	$8.48B	$3.62B	$1.34B	$788.0M	−$862.7M	−$190.0M	−$437.9M	−$30.8M	$22.6M	−$369.0M	−$236.9M	−$136.8M	−$45.0M
Net income	$3.79B	$7.09B	$15.00B	$12.56B	$5.52B	$721.0M	−$862.0M	−$976.0M	−$1.96B	−$674.9M	−$888.7M	−$294.0M	−$74.0M	−$396.2M	−$254.4M	−$154.3M	−$55.7M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$1.18	$2.23	$4.73	$4.02	$1.87	$0.25	-$0.98	-$1.14	-$11.83	-$4.68	-$6.93	-$2.36	-$0.62	-$3.69	—	—	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$1.08	$2.04	$4.30	$3.62	$1.63	$0.21	-$0.98	-$1.14	-$11.83	-$4.68	-$6.93	-$2.36	-$0.62	-$3.69	—	—	—

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys26$1.00B disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)318$795.67M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 8, 2026Form 4	Taneja VaibhavChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock	2.6K	$402.20	$1.05M	22.0K
May 13, 2026Form 4	Taneja VaibhavChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock	3.0K	$450.00	$1.35M	18.1K
Apr 30, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Wilson-Thompson KathleenDirector	SellCommon Stock	440	$384.28	$169.1K	48.4K
Apr 30, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Wilson-Thompson KathleenDirector	SellCommon Stock	1.2K	$383.61	$475.7K	48.8K
Apr 30, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Wilson-Thompson KathleenDirector	SellCommon Stock	680	$382.41	$260.0K	50.1K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells