TWFG, Inc. (TWFG)

Price$29.23Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because strong growth already carries high expectations.

Using roughly 54.1 million fully converted shares, the quote implies equity value near $1.44 billion and enterprise value—the business value after subtracting $66.1 million of net cash—near $1.37 billion. Management’s $300–$320 million revenue outlook and 23%–27% adjusted operating margin imply $69–$86 million of operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, so the business costs about 16–20 times that profit. First-half adjusted free cash flow, cash left after property investment and member tax distributions, was $18.9 million. Rapid growth supports this valuation, but leaves little cushion.

Big pictureFast growth is real, but one unusually favorable renewal cycle boosted recent results.

Revenue rose 22% in 2025 to $248.5 million, then 40% in first-half 2026 to $160.4 million. Second-quarter adjusted operating margin reached 30.4%, up from 25.1%. Yet reported organic growth of 37% benefited from first renewals of Florida Citizens takeout policies against almost no comparable commissions a year earlier. The mature Agency-in-a-Box channel grew commission income only 9.1% in the half. The bull case is a lasting shift toward higher-fee programs; the bear case is slower growth when this comparison disappears and insurance price increases cool.

Business strengthStrong cash reserves protect the business, though acquisitions and buybacks are using them quickly.

Operating cash flow rose 32% in 2025 to $53.5 million and 29% in first-half 2026 to $32.5 million, although the second quarter barely improved at $9.8 million. Property spending was only $0.8 million in the half. The balance sheet still held $73.7 million cash against $7.6 million debt, with current assets 2.6 times current liabilities. Yet cash fell $82.2 million as acquisitions, member tax distributions, and buybacks absorbed funds. Repurchases retired 2.25 million shares for $42.9 million, outweighing $2.0 million of stock compensation; 3.72 million shares remained authorized for future awards.

What could change the storyLasting organic growth would justify the price; fading special benefits would weaken it.

Fair value depends on 2026 revenue reaching $300–$320 million, adjusted operating margin holding near 23%–27%, and organic growth remaining above the low teens after Florida renewal effects fade. Confidence would rise if the core agent channel accelerates beyond its 9.1% first-half commission growth, retention stays near the reported 88% excluding special takeout renewals, and operating cash funds deals without heavy borrowing. The case weakens if the new $125 million credit line finances low-return acquisitions, cash keeps falling, or higher-fee program growth reverses as personal-auto and homeowners pricing cools.

AI: News

Guidance Raised After GrowthQuarterly revenue jumped and management raised its yearly outlook, lifting expectations for growth and margins.

On August 5, TWFG reported second-quarter revenue of $87.5 million, up 45.1%, and a 30.4% adjusted operating margin, its preferred profit measure before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, versus 25.1% a year earlier. It lifted 2026 revenue guidance from $285–$300 million to $300–$320 million and organic-growth guidance from 10%–15% to 13%–17%. Shares closed 2.7% higher the next session on roughly 303,000 shares traded. The timing suggests a favorable response but does not prove causation.

Borrowing Capacity ExpandedA larger credit line gives the company more acquisition room but raises future borrowing risk.

On August 13, TWFG replaced its $50 million revolving line with a $125 million facility maturing in August 2031. It can seek another $75 million from lenders, taking potential capacity to $200 million. Borrowings would cost a benchmark short-term rate plus 1.75%–2.75%, depending on leverage. This gives management more acquisition capacity after cash fell during the first half, but any value gain depends on acquired agencies earning returns above their financing cost; unused capacity itself creates no profit.

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Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$248.5M	$203.8M	$172.0M	$153.9M
Operating expenses	$211.5M	$175.8M	$146.7M	$130.2M
Operating income	$37.0M	$27.9M	$25.4M	$23.7M
Operating margin	14.88%	13.70%	14.76%	15.41%
EBITDA	$55.3M	$39.9M	$30.3M	$27.0M
EBITDA margin	22.27%	19.60%	17.58%	17.56%
Net income	$41.2M	$2.7M	$0	$0
Net profit margin	16.56%	1.35%	0.00%	0.00%
Basic EPSper basic share	$0.53	$0.19	$0.00	$0.00
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.53	$0.19	$0.00	$0.00

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

8.87%of listed shares

BAMCO INC /NY/1.14M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of TWFG
Holder	% owned
BAMCO INC /NY/	8.87%1.14M shares
Bunch Michelle Caroline	≈8.09%1.03M shares
Bunch Family Holdings, LLC / Bunch Richard F. III	≈8.09%1.03M shares
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC	6.11%781.91K shares
DOAK MICHAEL	≈6.06%775.7K shares
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	5.89%753.68K shares
Giverny Capital Inc.	5.10%652.45K shares
Central Securities Corp	3.91%500K shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.82%489.24K shares
MARSHALL WACE, LLP	3.19%408.73K shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	2.91%372.37K shares
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	2.76%353.22K shares
RIVERBRIDGE PARTNERS LLC	2.60%332.66K shares
BlackRock, Inc.	1.74%222.38K shares
GILDER GAGNON HOWE & CO LLC	1.73%221.18K shares
Alyeska Investment Group, L.P.	1.69%215.78K shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	1.68%214.59K shares
Ascent Group, LLC	1.66%212.31K shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.36%174.21K shares
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC	1.17%149.9K shares

Percentages use 12.8M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys30$20.79M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 5, 2026Form 4	DOAK MICHAELDirector	BuyClass A Common Stock · indirect	7.9K	$19.45	$153.0K	765.6K
Jun 4, 2026Form 4	DOAK MICHAELDirector	BuyClass A Common Stock · indirect	11.0K	$19.09	$210.0K	757.7K
Jun 3, 2026Form 4	DOAK MICHAELDirector	BuyClass A Common Stock · indirect	23.0K	$18.62	$428.1K	746.7K
Jun 2, 2026Form 4	DOAK MICHAELDirector	BuyClass A Common Stock · indirect	16.5K	$19.25	$317.6K	723.7K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4	DOAK MICHAELDirector	BuyClass A Common Stock · indirect	16.5K	$19.33	$318.9K	707.2K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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TWFG, Inc. (TWFG)

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