Ternium S.A. (TX)

Price$57.25Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-16 03:58 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because recovery gains are already partly reflected.

At the observed quote, Ternium is worth roughly $11 billion using the supplied year-end share count. That is about 15 times trailing earnings, but only about ten times first-half 2026 earnings if that pace lasted a full year. Enterprise value, meaning market value plus net debt, is roughly 7.5 times 2025 EBITDA, an operating-profit measure before financing, taxes, depreciation and amortization, and under five times the first-half 2026 annualized pace. The stock is also near book value, meaning stockholders’ equity. These signals look cheap only if the recovery lasts, supporting a Fair-priced verdict.

Big pictureCash generation has stayed resilient, but steel profits swing sharply across cycles.

Operating cash flow stayed positive from 2020 through 2025, ranging from about $1.8 billion to $2.8 billion even as net income swung from $3.8 billion in 2021 to a small loss in 2024. The pressure now comes from investment: capital spending rose from about $0.5 billion in 2021 to $2.7 billion in 2025, leaving 2025 free cash flow slightly negative. Free cash flow is cash left after running and investing in the business. First-half 2026 was also negative by roughly $0.4 billion because spending remained heavy.

Business strengthA sturdy balance sheet and stable share count protect investors during heavy spending.

At the end of 2025, current assets were about $9.8 billion against $3.9 billion of current liabilities, while stockholders’ equity was about $11.9 billion. By June 2026, company-reported net debt was only $112 million despite the Pesquería build, the Usiminas purchase and a $255 million dividend payment. The supplied history shows the share count unchanged from 2020 through 2025, so investors were not diluted by new share issuance. Dividends were substantial, but the board cut the latest annual payout to conserve balance-sheet strength, showing that cash distributions remain flexible.

What could change the storyStronger Mexican volumes could lift value, while persistent investment overruns would weaken it.

The bull case is that Mexico keeps recovering and the Pesquería facilities convert today's heavy spending into higher volumes, better product mix and lower import dependence. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA, an operating-profit measure before financing, taxes, depreciation and amortization, reached $717 million, and management expected another sequential increase in the third quarter. If earnings stay near that run rate while capital spending falls after startup, today's valuation could prove cheap. The bear case is a return toward 2025's roughly 10% margin while receivables, inventory and project spending keep absorbing cash. The price assumes a real recovery, but not 2021 peak profits.

AI: News

Second-quarter profit surgeSecond-quarter profits jumped, strengthening the case that steel pricing and demand are recovering.

On August 4, Ternium reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA, an operating-profit measure before financing, taxes, depreciation and amortization, of $717 million, up 50% from the prior quarter. Its margin rose to 17% from 12%, net sales increased 10% sequentially to $4.34 billion, and earnings were $1.75 per American Depositary Share, the U.S.-traded receipt representing ten ordinary shares. Management also guided to higher third-quarter adjusted EBITDA. The shares rose about 7% next session; timing supports an earnings-related interpretation but does not prove causation.

First-quarter recovery signalFirst-quarter results showed improving steel economics before the stronger second-quarter acceleration arrived.

On May 5, adjusted EBITDA, an operating-profit measure before financing, taxes, depreciation and amortization, rose 21% sequentially to $479 million as realized steel prices improved across core markets, while steel shipments reached 3.7 million tons. Earnings were $1.09 per American Depositary Share, although net income also included a $132 million deferred-tax gain and a $48 million litigation-related loss. The shares gained nearly 10% the next session. That reaction fits the operating improvement, though market-wide factors could also have contributed.

Dividend cut for cautionTernium reduced its dividend to preserve financial flexibility during a costly expansion cycle.

On April 15, the board lowered the fiscal 2025 dividend proposal to $2.20 per American Depositary Share from $2.70, reducing the total planned payout to $432 million. Management cited global uncertainty and a desire to reinforce the balance sheet even while expecting improving operating results. The shares fell about 1% the next session. That timing is consistent with some disappointment over the lower cash return, but a single trading day cannot isolate the dividend decision from other market influences.

Usiminas stake purchaseTernium spent cash to deepen its exposure to Brazilian steel through the Usiminas control group.

On February 10, Ternium completed the purchase of 153.1 million Usiminas ordinary shares from Nippon Steel and Mitsubishi for about $315 million in cash. The transaction increased Ternium's financial exposure to Brazil at the same time it was funding the major Pesquería expansion, making balance-sheet discipline more important. The shares rose about 2% in the next session, but that modest move cannot be confidently attributed to the acquisition alone.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	$15.61B	$17.65B	$17.61B	$16.41B	$16.09B	$8.74B	$10.19B	$11.45B	$9.70B	$7.22B	$7.88B
Gross profit	$2.35B	$2.89B	$3.56B	$3.93B	$6.20B	$1.64B	$1.74B	$2.97B	$2.30B	$1.84B	$1.40B
Gross margin	15.08%	16.37%	20.21%	23.93%	38.50%	18.72%	17.07%	25.94%	23.68%	25.46%	17.77%
Research & development	$21.8M	$23.8M	$19.0M	$16.3M	$9.8M	$8.3M	$10.0M	$8.9M	$9.8M	$9.2M	$6.2M
Operating expenses	$1.65B	$1.63B	$1.36B	$1.23B	$924.5M	$556.0M	$875.8M	$863.1M	$840.5M	$697.9M	$760.8M
Operating income	$705.4M	$1.26B	$2.20B	$2.70B	$5.27B	$1.08B	$864.6M	$2.11B	$1.46B	$1.14B	$639.3M
Operating margin	4.52%	7.16%	12.48%	16.45%	32.76%	12.36%	8.48%	18.41%	15.02%	15.80%	8.12%
EBITDA	$1.49B	$2.01B	$2.86B	$3.32B	$5.86B	$1.71B	$1.53B	$2.70B	$1.93B	$1.55B	$1.07B
EBITDA margin	9.57%	11.37%	16.22%	20.20%	36.44%	19.58%	14.97%	23.55%	19.91%	21.44%	13.62%
Net income	$303.1M	$173.8M	$986.4M	$2.09B	$4.37B	$867.9M	$630.0M	$1.66B	$1.02B	$706.9M	$59.8M
Net profit margin	1.94%	0.98%	5.60%	12.75%	27.14%	9.94%	6.18%	14.51%	10.55%	9.79%	0.76%
Basic EPSper basic share	$0.22	-$0.03	$0.34	$0.90	$1.95	$0.40	$0.29	$0.77	$0.45	$0.30	$0.00
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.22	-$0.03	$0.34	$0.90	$1.95	$0.40	$0.29	$0.77	$0.45	$0.30	$0.00

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of TX
Holder	Shares held
LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC	6.38M
DONALD SMITH & CO., INC.	3.14M
SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP	2.27M
ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC	1.43M
Ninety One UK Ltd	1.07M
Cape Ann Asset Management Ltd	996.42K
CONTRARIAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	992.41K
Amundi	715.53K
Fourth Sail Capital LP	679.33K
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	674.99K
MARSHALL WACE, LLP	658.99K
OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP	572.32K
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC	548K
Russell Investments Group, Ltd.	546.17K
PRUDENTIAL PLC	529.3K
Itau Unibanco Holding S.A.	509.37K
Ninety One North America, Inc.	509.33K
BlackRock, Inc.	508.73K
Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.	430.49K
Nykredit A/S	335.58K

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Ternium S.A. (TX)

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