Vistra Corp. (VST)

Price$138.69Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-24 18:34 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because strong growth is offset by heavy debt and spending.

Using the latest completed market close, equity value is about $46.7 billion on roughly 336 million shares. Adding about $19.2 billion of net debt gives an enterprise value near $65.9 billion, about 9.2 times the midpoint of management’s 2026 adjusted operating-profit guidance. Trailing reported earnings imply roughly 21 times earnings, while trailing cash left after operations and capital spending is only about $2.3 billion, a yield near 5%. That mix supports a balanced rather than clearly cheap valuation.

Big pictureCash generation has improved sharply, but recent results still show meaningful swings between years and quarters.

Revenue rose from $14.8 billion to $17.6 billion last year, yet reported net income fell from $2.7 billion to $0.9 billion because power hedges and market conditions can move accounting results sharply. Operating cash flow stayed stronger at $4.1 billion, although capital spending climbed to $2.8 billion. Over the latest four reported quarters, operating cash flow was about $5.1 billion and capital spending about $2.9 billion. The business is therefore cash-generative, but not a smooth utility-like compounding story.

Business strengthA diversified power fleet, long contracts, and buybacks strengthen earnings visibility and per-share value.

Vistra combines retail electricity with gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and batteries, reducing dependence on one fuel or region. Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted operating profit of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and said hedging supports that range. Long contracts with large technology customers add future nuclear revenue visibility. Capital allocation has also favored owners: about $6.5 billion has been spent on repurchases since late 2021, cutting shares by roughly 30%, while stock compensation remains modest. Two major agencies now rate Vistra investment grade.

What could change the storyThe upside needs durable power demand, while leverage and growth spending leave little room for disappointment.

The strongest bull case is that data-center demand, nuclear contracts, and new gas assets lift adjusted operating profit toward the company’s $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion 2027 opportunity before Cogentrix and Meta benefits. The bear case is balance-sheet and cycle risk: debt reached about $19.6 billion, cash was only $0.4 billion, and current liabilities slightly exceeded current assets. If power prices, plant availability, or contract economics weaken while spending stays high, today’s roughly nine-times enterprise-value multiple could prove demanding.

AI: News

Strong second quarterQuarterly adjusted operating profit jumped more than thirty percent, and management kept its full-year outlook unchanged.

Earlier this month, Vistra reported $305 million of reported net income and $1.77 billion of ongoing adjusted operating profit, up more than 30% from a year earlier. It reaffirmed full-year adjusted operating profit of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and cash-before-growth-spending guidance of $3.93 billion to $4.73 billion. The shares finished that session slightly lower, but the same announcement included several strategic items, so attributing the move to earnings alone would be unreliable.

Digital infrastructure pushVistra joined a new data-center infrastructure venture, adding another route to monetize scarce reliable power.

Earlier this month, Vistra announced Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, Kuwait Investment Authority, and NVIDIA, with Vistra committing up to $1.0 billion initially and becoming a preferred power provider. The attraction is direct exposure to rapidly rising data-center electricity demand without relying only on wholesale power prices. The opportunity could improve long-term growth, but it also adds capital needs and execution risk, making returns on that investment more important while the company already carries substantial debt.

Meta nuclear contractsLong nuclear supply agreements with Meta increased confidence that technology demand can support future plant economics.

Earlier this year, Vistra signed 20-year agreements covering more than 2,600 megawatts from three nuclear plants, including 433 megawatts of added output from upgrades. Deliveries begin later this year and ramp over time, giving Vistra a large, creditworthy customer and clearer justification for plant-life extensions and capital spending. Reuters reported an approximately 8% premarket share rise after the announcement, a strong market reaction that likely reflected enthusiasm for contracted data-center power demand.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Revenue	$17.59B	$14.76B	$13.80B	$15.63B	$17.70B	$10.85B	$11.55B	$9.80B	$5.43B
Operating expenses	$3.70B	$3.44B	$2.81B	$2.79B	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	$1.91B	$4.08B	$2.66B	−$1.18B	−$1.51B	$1.52B	$1.99B	$491.0M	$198.0M
Operating margin	10.84%	27.65%	19.28%	−7.53%	−8.56%	14.00%	17.26%	5.01%	3.65%
EBITDA	$3.89B	$5.92B	$4.16B	$419.0M	$238.0M	$3.26B	$3.63B	$1.89B	$897.0M
EBITDA margin	22.13%	40.13%	30.16%	2.68%	1.34%	30.01%	31.46%	19.24%	16.52%
Net income	$944.0M	$2.66B	$1.49B	−$1.23B	−$1.27B	$636.0M	$928.0M	−$54.0M	−$254.0M
Net profit margin	5.37%	18.01%	10.82%	−7.85%	−7.20%	5.86%	8.04%	−0.55%	−4.68%
Basic EPSper basic share	$2.22	$7.16	$3.63	-$3.26	-$2.69	$1.30	$1.88	-$0.11	-$0.59
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$2.18	$7.00	$3.58	-$3.26	-$2.69	$1.30	$1.86	-$0.11	-$0.59

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

8.65%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.29.06M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of VST
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	8.65%29.06M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	6.37%21.39M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	5.04%16.94M shares
STATE STREET CORP	5.02%16.85M shares
FMR LLC	4.21%14.16M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.69%9.04M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.64%8.88M shares
NORGES BANK	1.73%5.81M shares
UBS Group AG	1.61%5.4M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.41%4.74M shares
Invesco Ltd.	1.11%3.71M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.06%3.55M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	0.97%3.25M shares
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/	0.94%3.16M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.90%3.02M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	0.88%2.95M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	0.85%2.85M shares
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC	0.80%2.69M shares
Capital World Investors	0.77%2.57M shares
SG Americas Securities, LLC	0.76%2.55M shares

Percentages use 335.96M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$190.1K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)97$354.94M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 18, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Acosta ArciliaDirector	SellCommon Stock	7.5K	$170.00	$1.27M	32.6K
Jun 18, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Acosta ArciliaDirector	SellCommon Stock	7.5K	$165.04	$1.24M	40.1K
Jun 18, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	SULT JOHN RDirector	SellCommon Stock	6.5K	$170.00	$1.10M	70.7K
Jun 16, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	HELM SCOTT BDirector	SellCommon Stock	25.0K	$160.00	$4.00M	232.2K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	BARBAS PAUL MDirector	SellCommon Stock	244	$153.00	$37.3K	53.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Vistra Corp. (VST)

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