Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)

Price$164.87Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 14:05 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkStrong execution is already priced in, leaving little room for ordinary setbacks.

At the observed price, equity value is about $42.6 billion using roughly 252 million recent shares. That is about 40 times trailing reported earnings and roughly 30 times management's $1.40-$1.45 billion adjusted free-cash-flow outlook. Free cash flow means cash left after running and investing in the business, subject here to management's stated adjustments. Including roughly $9.2 billion of net debt, enterprise value is around 15.5 times the midpoint of 2026 adjusted operating cash earnings. Those multiples require durable growth and margins, supporting an Overvalued judgment.

Big pictureCash generation keeps improving, but debt growth reduces the protection offered by that stability.

Revenue rose from $5.45 billion in 2020 to $9.47 billion in 2025, while operating cash flow climbed from $1.41 billion to $2.41 billion. After capital spending, 2025 produced about $1.23 billion of simple free cash flow, and the latest four reported quarters produced a similar amount. Waste collection is relatively recurring, but not immune to weakness: second-quarter 2026 service volumes fell 1.9%. Meanwhile, net debt reached about $9.19 billion by June, up almost $1 billion from a year earlier, limiting valuation downside protection.

Business strengthPricing power and disciplined operations support earnings, while repurchases have reduced shareholder dilution.

Second-quarter revenue grew 6.4% and adjusted operating cash earnings grew 6.8%, with the adjusted margin reaching 32.8%. Average service pricing rose 4.6%, helping offset a 1.9% volume decline and weaker recycling values. That combination shows meaningful pricing power rather than growth depending only on customer activity. Shares outstanding fell from about 258.3 million in June 2025 to 252.2 million in June 2026, aided by $614.5 million of first-half repurchases. The trade-off is that acquisitions, dividends and buybacks compete with debt reduction for the company's strong cash generation.

What could change the storyFaster cash growth could justify the premium, while weaker pricing or rising leverage would challenge it.

The strongest bull case is that Waste Connections sustains roughly 33% adjusted margins, converts its acquisition pipeline into profitable growth and reaches or exceeds the $1.40-$1.45 billion 2026 adjusted free-cash-flow outlook. That could make today's premium less demanding over time. The bear case is visible in current data: service volumes are already falling, debt has continued rising, and acquisitions add goodwill as well as earnings. A stronger valuation case would require materially faster per-share cash growth or meaningful deleveraging; persistent low-single-digit organic growth would make roughly 30 times expected cash flow difficult to defend.

AI: News

Outlook raised after strong quarterWaste Connections beat second-quarter expectations and raised its full-year outlook despite falling service volumes.

On July 22, Waste Connections reported $2.56 billion of second-quarter revenue, up 6.4%, and $840.1 million of adjusted operating cash earnings, up 6.8%. Management raised expected 2026 revenue to $10.02-$10.05 billion and adjusted operating cash earnings to $3.33-$3.34 billion. Pricing and fuel-cost recovery helped offset a 1.9% decline in service volumes. Contemporary reporting described shares as roughly flat after the announcement, so there is no reliable evidence of a large immediate price reaction.

Long-term debt refinancedNew Canadian notes extended funding maturities but underline how heavily the company uses borrowed capital.

On July 27, the company priced C$700 million of senior notes: C$300 million due in 2033 at 4.20% and C$400 million due in 2036 at 4.55%. Expected net proceeds of about C$691.9 million were designated to repay Canadian-dollar revolving-credit borrowings, so the transaction mainly shifted debt from shorter-term bank funding into longer-dated bonds rather than adding equivalent new spending capacity. This reduces refinancing pressure, but it does not remove the valuation concern created by roughly $9 billion of net debt.

Buyback authority renewedThe board preserved substantial repurchase capacity after already shrinking the share count during 2026.

On August 7, Waste Connections renewed authorization to repurchase up to 12.58 million shares over the following year, equal to 5% of shares outstanding at July 31. The company had already spent a record $614.5 million on repurchases during the first half of 2026, representing about 1.5% of outstanding shares. Repurchases can increase each remaining shareholder's claim on future earnings, but their value depends on purchase price; buying aggressively at a high valuation can produce weaker returns than debt reduction or attractive acquisitions.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010
Revenue	$9.47B	$8.92B	$8.02B	$7.21B	$6.15B	$5.45B	$5.39B	$4.92B	$4.63B	$3.38B	$1.93B	$2.01B	$2.03B	$1.90B	$1.84B	$1.43B
Gross profit	$4.01B	$3.73B	$3.28B	$2.88B	$2.50B	$2.17B	$2.19B	$2.06B	$1.93B	$1.42B	$748.2M	$870.6M	—	—	—	—
Gross margin	42.37%	41.79%	40.86%	39.88%	40.60%	39.83%	40.64%	41.79%	41.59%	42.01%	38.85%	43.34%	—	—	—	—
Operating expenses	$2.30B	$2.66B	$2.04B	$1.63B	$1.46B	$1.76B	$1.35B	$1.22B	$1.30B	$965.9M	$1.23B	$1.28B	$1.25B	$1.15B	$1.09B	$840.0M
Operating income	$1.71B	$1.07B	$1.24B	$1.24B	$1.04B	$412.4M	$837.8M	$832.2M	$627.1M	$452.3M	−$61.5M	$449.3M	$232.9M	$237.7M	−$88.4M	$184.5M
Operating margin	18.06%	11.97%	15.41%	17.22%	16.90%	7.57%	15.55%	16.91%	13.54%	13.40%	−3.20%	22.36%	11.50%	12.53%	−4.80%	12.90%
EBITDA	$2.94B	$2.23B	$2.24B	$2.16B	$1.85B	$1.16B	$1.58B	$1.51B	$1.26B	$916.2M	$207.9M	$707.2M	$529.4M	$511.8M	$168.7M	$392.2M
EBITDA margin	31.08%	25.02%	27.92%	29.97%	30.12%	21.39%	29.35%	30.73%	27.20%	27.14%	10.80%	35.20%	26.13%	26.98%	9.17%	27.43%
Net income	$1.08B	$617.6M	$762.8M	$835.7M	$618.0M	$204.7M	$566.8M	$546.9M	$576.8M	$246.5M	−$95.8M	$232.5M	$118.0M	$94.4M	−$196.1M	$74.1M
Net profit margin	11.37%	6.92%	9.51%	11.59%	10.05%	3.76%	10.52%	11.11%	12.46%	7.30%	−4.97%	11.57%	5.82%	4.97%	−10.66%	5.18%
Basic EPSper basic share	$4.18	$2.39	$2.96	$3.25	$2.37	$0.78	$2.15	$2.07	$2.19	$1.07	-$0.52	$1.25	$0.68	$0.54	-$1.09	$0.51
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$4.17	$2.39	$2.95	$3.24	$2.36	$0.78	$2.14	$2.07	$2.18	$1.07	-$0.52	$1.24	$0.68	$0.54	-$1.09	$0.51

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

6.26%of listed shares

VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC15.8M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of WCN
Holder	% owned
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	6.26%15.8M shares
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA	5.23%13.19M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.45%11.23M shares
BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/	3.44%8.67M shares
1832 Asset Management L.P.	2.96%7.46M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	2.53%6.37M shares
FMR LLC	2.12%5.34M shares
MACKENZIE FINANCIAL CORP	1.86%4.7M shares
Capital International Investors	1.82%4.58M shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.63%4.11M shares
NORGES BANK	1.57%3.96M shares
TD Asset Management Inc	1.51%3.8M shares
WCM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.50%3.79M shares
Invesco Ltd.	1.42%3.59M shares
MANUFACTURERS LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY, THE	1.41%3.54M shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	1.29%3.25M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.21%3.06M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	1.15%2.89M shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	1.14%2.87M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	1.03%2.61M shares

Percentages use 252.15M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$7.61M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)31$19.85M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 5, 2026Form 4	CRAFT JASONExecutive Vice President & COO	SellCommon Shares	1.5K	$156.59	$234.9K	32.9K
Jun 5, 2026Form 4	Shea Patrick JamesExec VP, General Counsel & Sec	SellCommon Shares	7.5K	$156.26	$1.17M	19.7K
May 14, 2026Form 4	NIELSEN III ROBERTSR VP Operations	SellCommon Shares	500	$155.56	$77.8K	4.3K
May 13, 2026Form 4	NIELSEN III ROBERTSR VP Operations	SellCommon Shares	290	$151.00	$43.8K	4.8K
May 12, 2026Form 4	NIELSEN III ROBERTSR VP Operations	SellCommon Shares	337	$153.00	$51.6K	5.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)

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