ExxonMobil Holdings Corp (XOM)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced, but only if recent cash strength partly lasts.

At $160.10 and 4.112 billion shares, the market values Exxon at about $658 billion. First-half reported earnings of $18.7 billion annualize to about 18 times earnings, while adjusted earnings of $23.5 billion annualize to roughly 14 times. First-half free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was about $19.3 billion, an annualized yield near 5.9%. Those are reasonable, not bargain, figures for a strong but cyclical producer; hence Fair-priced rather than an extreme verdict.

Big pictureRecent profits are powerful, but war-driven oil and refining prices limit their durability.

Second-quarter revenue rose 42% to $116.0 billion from $81.5 billion, and net income more than doubled to $14.5 billion from $7.1 billion. First-half operating cash flow climbed 32% to $32.3 billion; after $13.0 billion of capital spending, free cash flow was about $19.3 billion, versus $12.3 billion a year earlier. However, Brent crude averaged $96.68, 23% above the first quarter, while disrupted trade lifted refining margins. The quarter therefore shows strong cash conversion, but not a safe mid-cycle earnings baseline.

Business strengthLow debt and fewer shares protect owners, though payouts consumed nearly all spare cash.

At June 30, cash was $10.6 billion against $32.2 billion of debt, leaving $21.6 billion of net debt—only about 8% of $259.4 billion equity. Current assets of $100.8 billion exceeded current liabilities of $88.8 billion. Shares fell from 4.145 billion in March to 4.112 billion in June, so buybacks more than offset dilution. First-half buybacks of $10.0 billion and dividends of $8.6 billion almost matched roughly $19.3 billion of free cash flow, supporting owners now but leaving little internally generated cash if commodity prices weaken.

What could change the storyNew Guyana output could justify the price, while cheaper oil would undermine it.

The bull case is visible: Permian production exceeded 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels daily, and the fifth Guyana production ship should add 250,000 barrels daily in late 2026. Cost savings reached $16.3 billion since 2019. The bear case is equally concrete: reopening Hormuz could reverse high oil and refining prices, even as it restores Exxon's Qatar volumes. At $160.10, the valuation works if adjusted annual earnings stay near $47 billion and free cash flow grows beyond the first-half annualized $39 billion; an 8% cash yield would require about $53 billion.

$160.10 price considered

AI: News

Four-year profit highQuarterly profit reached a four-year high, but expectations and disrupted production tempered the result.

On July 31, Exxon reported second-quarter earnings of $14.5 billion, or $3.48 a share; adjusted earnings were $14.7 billion, or $3.52 a share, though Reuters characterized the result as below expectations. Operating cash flow was $23.6 billion and free cash flow was $17.2 billion. The company returned $9.4 billion through dividends and buybacks. Reuters-linked market data showed the shares down 2.33%; the timing is consistent with disappointment, but does not prove the report caused the move.

Hormuz squeezeMiddle East disruption raised selling prices while blocking a meaningful slice of Exxon’s production.

On July 31, Exxon said Qatar liquefied-natural-gas output remained largely shut because Hormuz shipping had not fully reopened. About 450,000 oil-equivalent barrels of daily output were lost in the second quarter; a full third-quarter closure could reduce Middle East production by about 750,000 daily versus last year. Meanwhile Brent crude averaged $96.68 a barrel, 23% above the first quarter, lifting upstream and refining profit. The same event therefore raises prices and constrains volumes, making its net value effect unusually uncertain.

White House price pressureThe president demanded lower fuel prices, creating policy risk around Exxon’s strong refining profits.

On August 3, President Donald Trump publicly accused Exxon and Chevron of making too much money and demanded lower retail fuel prices. He also said oil prices could fall sharply if the Iran conflict ends. No specific penalty or binding price rule was reported in the cited account, so the direct financial effect remains uncertain. The material risk is follow-on investigation or intervention that limits refining gains, while a peace-driven oil decline would also reduce upstream earnings.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$332.24B	$349.58B	$344.58B	$413.68B	$276.69B	$178.57B	$255.58B	$279.33B	$237.16B	$200.63B	$239.85B	$394.11B	$420.84B	$451.51B	$467.03B	$370.13B	$301.50B	—	—
Research & development	$1.20B	$1.00B	$900.0M	$824.0M	$843.0M	$1.02B	$1.21B	$1.12B	$1.06B	$1.06B	$1.01B	$971.0M	$1.04B	$1.04B	$1.04B	$1.01B	$1.05B	$847.0M	—
Net income	$28.84B	$33.68B	$36.01B	$55.74B	$23.04B	−$22.44B	$14.34B	$20.84B	$19.71B	$7.84B	$16.15B	$32.52B	$32.58B	$44.88B	$41.06B	$30.46B	$19.28B	$45.22B	$40.61B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$6.70	$7.84	$8.89	$13.26	$5.39	-$5.25	$3.36	$4.88	$4.63	$1.88	$3.85	$7.60	$7.37	$9.70	$8.43	$6.24	$3.99	$8.70	$7.31
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$6.70	$7.84	$8.89	$13.26	$5.39	-$5.25	$3.36	$4.88	$4.63	$1.88	$3.85	$7.60	$7.37	$9.70	$8.42	$6.22	$3.98	$8.66	$7.26

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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp (XOM)

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