Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN)

Price$12.56Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 23:33 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look overvalued because strong sales momentum is already priced above current earnings and owner cash flow.

Zegna's market value is about $3.5 billion. After allowing for currency differences, that is roughly a high-twenties multiple of 2025 earnings and more than 35 times the €82 million of company-defined free cash flow. Profit improved to €109.5 million and the balance sheet reached a €52 million cash surplus, but adjusted operating margin was only 8.5%. The valuation therefore assumes that accelerating 2026 sales will translate into substantially stronger margins and cash generation, leaving limited value-investor protection if improvement stalls.

Big pictureDirect retail growth is accelerating, but weaker wholesale sales and mixed brand performance temper the luxury recovery.

First-half revenue reached €987.3 million, up 6.4% reported and 9.3% organically, while second-quarter organic growth accelerated to 11%. Direct-to-consumer revenue grew 17.3% organically in the quarter and the ZEGNA brand grew 16.5%. However, Thom Browne was essentially flat organically for the first half and branded wholesale revenue fell 9.5% organically in the second quarter. Luxury spending is also sensitive to tourism, China and wealthy-consumer confidence, so recent growth should not automatically be treated as durable double-digit expansion.

Business strengthThe balance sheet is stronger than headline debt suggests, but dilution and lease commitments still matter.

The supplied history shows nearly €978 million of total debt because it includes substantial lease liabilities. On the company's financing measure, year-end borrowings were only about €246 million and cash, securities and derivatives totaled roughly €303 million, producing a €52 million cash surplus. Lease payments still consumed €148 million during 2025. Capital allocation also diluted owners: a Temasek transaction issued 14.1 million shares, and ordinary shares outstanding reached about 268 million versus roughly 243 million in 2022.

What could change the storyA sharp margin and cash-flow recovery could justify the premium, while sales growth without profits would not.

The bull case requires recent retail momentum to restore profitability as well as revenue. Adjusted operating margin fell from 11.6% in 2023 to 8.5% in 2025, so a recovery above roughly 10% combined with annual free cash flow above €150 million would make today's valuation much easier to defend. The bear case is that store investment, leases and weaker wholesale economics absorb the extra sales. If margins remain near 8% to 9% and free cash flow stays around €100 million, the current earnings premium looks excessive.

AI: News

Second-quarter sales beatFaster retail growth beat expectations and strengthened evidence that Zegna's luxury demand is recovering.

On July 23, Zegna reported second-quarter revenue of €517.1 million, up 11% organically and above the roughly €493 million analyst expectation reported by Reuters. The Americas grew about 20% reported, while Greater China improved 12.2%. Shares slipped 0.5% on the announcement day but gained 3.7% the following session. That later rise is consistent with a favorable reassessment of the sales beat, although the timing does not prove the report was the sole cause.

First-quarter retail accelerationStrong direct sales and renewed China growth produced an early sign that the 2025 slowdown was easing.

On April 30, first-quarter revenue rose 7.4% organically, with direct-to-consumer sales up 14.2% organically and the ZEGNA brand up 11.3%. Greater China returned to positive organic growth, while the Americas increased 17.5%. Thom Browne remained weaker and wholesale branded sales fell 17% organically. Shares rose about 5.3% that session. The reaction is consistent with investors rewarding improved retail momentum, though broader luxury-sector trading may also have influenced the move.

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Revenue

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2019

2020

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2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	€1.92B	€1.95B	€1.90B	€1.49B	€1.29B	€1.01B	€1.32B
Gross profit	€1.29B	€1.30B	€1.22B	€928.0M	€796.7M	—	—
Gross margin	67.51%	66.60%	64.28%	62.16%	61.64%	—	—
Operating expenses	€1.15B	€1.13B	€1.02B	€780.2M	€890.7M	—	—
Operating income	€139.5M	€166.9M	€208.1M	€147.8M	−€94.0M	−€22.6M	€88.6M
Operating margin	7.28%	8.57%	10.93%	9.90%	−7.28%	−2.22%	6.71%
EBITDA	€384.4M	€391.6M	€401.3M	€319.7M	€60.6M	€143.7M	€256.8M
EBITDA margin	20.05%	20.12%	21.07%	21.41%	4.69%	14.16%	19.44%
Net income	€109.5M	€90.9M	€135.7M	€65.3M	−€127.7M	−€46.5M	€25.4M
Net profit margin	5.71%	4.67%	7.12%	4.37%	−9.88%	−4.59%	1.93%
Basic EPSper basic share	€0.38	€0.31	€0.49	€0.22	-€0.67	-€0.25	€0.11
Diluted EPSper diluted share	€0.38	€0.30	€0.48	€0.21	-€0.67	-€0.25	€0.11

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of ZGN
Holder	Shares held
Zegna di Monte Rubello Ermenegildo	161.25M
Zegna di Monte Rubello Paolo	153.16M
Zegna di Monte Rubello Anna	152.93M
Ferraris Franco	152.76M
Temasek Holdings (Private) Ltd	27.24M
BARROW HANLEY MEWHINNEY & STRAUSS LLC	4.53M
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	4.51M
BlackRock, Inc.	2.75M
Amundi	2.59M
HARRIS ASSOCIATES L P	2.44M
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.	2.3M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	2.29M
Eurizon Capital SGR S.p.A.	2.18M
Ermotti Sergio	1.72M
Artisan Partners Limited Partnership	1.69M
Tabor Asset Management, LP	1.68M
Liontrust Investment Partners LLP	1.44M
Hood River Capital Management LLC	1.26M
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.	1.13M
FEDERATED HERMES, INC.	1.06M

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 3 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)6$708.1K disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 8, 2026Form 4	Zegna di Monte Rubello AngeloCo-CEO of the ZEGNA brand	SellOrdinary Shares, nominal value Euro 0.02 per share	1.9K	$13.12	$25.4K	140.1K
May 8, 2026Form 4	Zegna di Monte Rubello EdoardoCo-CEO of the ZEGNA brand	SellOrdinary Shares, nominal value Euro 0.02 per share	17.0K	$13.12	$223.5K	305.0K
May 8, 2026Form 4	Santhia Gian FrancoGroup Chief Financial Officer	SellOrdinary Shares, nominal value Euro 0.02 per share	5.8K	$13.12	$75.7K	44.4K
May 8, 2026Form 4	Tagliabue Gianluca AmbrogioActing Group CEO	SellOrdinary Shares, nominal value Euro 0.02 per share	19.1K	$13.12	$250.7K	167.7K
May 8, 2026Form 4	Sartori AlessandroArtistic Director	SellOrdinary Shares, nominal value Euro 0.02 per share	6.5K	$13.12	$85.3K	142.2K