Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. (DYN)

Price$18.29Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-11 13:59 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price looks rich because investors already assign billions to medicines that still need approval.

At the observed quote, Dyne’s equity value is about $4.7 billion. Using June 30 cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $898.5 million, plus about $405 million net from July’s stock sale, and roughly $200 million of term-loan principal, the implied value of the drug pipeline is about $3.6 billion before later cash burn. A conservative value investor paying ten times steady annual profit would need roughly $360 million of sustainable profit from that pipeline value; if 30% of sales remained as profit after all costs and taxes, that would require about $1.2 billion of annual sales.

Big pictureDyne is spending rapidly now, but its financing should carry it through several major clinical decisions.

Dyne remains loss-making and revenue-free. Operating cash outflow was $275.2 million in the first half of 2026, versus $200.6 million a year earlier; 2025 operating cash outflow was $403.2 million. Research spending also rose sharply. Management says June liquidity plus the July raise should fund operations into Q2 2028. That runway spans the January 2027 FDA decision and planned Q1 2027 DM1 data, but continued launch spending or disappointing results could bring another financing need sooner.

Business strengthThe balance sheet is strong, but the business still depends on unproven commercial execution after promising clinical progress.

Because Dyne has no recurring sales, there is no steady profit stream to judge yet. Its strength is financial capacity and two late-stage programs. The FDA accepted z-rostudirsen for Priority Review, while DM1 data are planned for Q1 2027. Dyne describes an established exon-51 DMD market of about 1,600 people and roughly 40,000 U.S. DM1 patients. For scale, Sarepta’s three approved exon-skipping drugs together produced $965.6 million of 2025 net product revenue. The bull case is credible, but current valuation likely needs substantial DMD share plus meaningful DM1 value.

What could change the storyApproval and strong launches could justify the premium, while setbacks or more dilution would quickly weaken it.

Dyne is not economically cyclical in the usual sense; its value is catalyst-driven. The biggest upside would be FDA approval followed by strong z-rostudirsen uptake, then positive DM1 data supporting another filing. The biggest downside is regulatory delay, weaker-than-expected commercial demand, or trial data that lower expected future sales. Capital allocation matters too: shares outstanding rose from about 102 million at year-end 2024 to roughly 187 million after July’s offering. The deal added cash, but it also shows how heavily existing owners have funded development through dilution.

AI: News

FDA review acceptedThe FDA accepted z-rostudirsen for Priority Review, moving Dyne closer to its first potential commercial launch.

On July 20, the FDA accepted the biologics license application for accelerated approval in exon-51 Duchenne muscular dystrophy and set January 21, 2027 as the target action date. The filing is based on dystrophin as a surrogate endpoint, so acceptance does not guarantee approval. The event reduced one major regulatory uncertainty and pulled a potential launch into clearer view; any stock move around that date should be treated as association, not proof of causation.

Large equity offeringDyne raised major new cash at a discount, strengthening runway while diluting existing shareholders.

On July 21-23, Dyne sold 21.045 million shares and received about $405 million of estimated net proceeds after the underwriters exercised their option in full. The offering was priced below the prior market close; financial reporting noted shares fell about 9% after pricing. The financing extended expected cash runway into Q2 2028, but increased the share count by roughly 13% from the June 30 level, reducing each existing share’s ownership percentage.

Debt facility expandedDyne expanded borrowing capacity and received fresh cash, giving it more flexibility before key regulatory milestones.

On June 17, Dyne expanded its Hercules senior secured term-loan facility to as much as $400 million and received $50 million at closing. The amendment added up to $125 million of capacity versus the prior structure and left additional funding subject to milestones or lender discretion. Dow Jones reported the shares were about 7% higher during that session. The financing was helpful for liquidity, although it also increased debt obligations while the company remains cash-burning and pre-revenue.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	N/A	N/A	N/A
Research & development	$398.3M	$281.4M	$210.8M	$142.8M	$121.3M	$45.2M	$11.0M
Operating expenses	$468.2M	$343.9M	$242.2M	$171.0M	$150.0M	$58.6M	$13.8M
Operating income	−$468.2M	−$343.9M	−$242.2M	−$171.0M	−$150.0M	−$58.6M	−$13.8M
EBITDA	−$466.1M	−$342.2M	−$240.5M	−$169.3M	−$148.9M	−$57.9M	−$13.6M
Net income	−$446.2M	−$317.4M	−$235.9M	−$168.1M	−$149.3M	−$59.4M	−$14.9M
Basic EPSper basic share	-$3.47	-$3.37	-$3.95	-$3.23	-$2.93	-$4.13	-$6.08
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$3.47	-$3.37	-$3.95	-$3.23	-$2.93	-$4.13	-$6.08

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

18.66%of listed shares

T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.30.91M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of DYN
Holder	% owned
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	18.66%30.91M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	7.49%12.4M shares
Jupiter Topco LLC	7.24%12M shares
FMR LLC	6.76%11.21M shares
STATE STREET CORP	4.50%7.46M shares
Orbis Allan Gray Ltd	4.23%7.01M shares
Atlas Venture Life Science Advisors, LLC	4.10%6.8M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.81%6.31M shares
TCG Crossover Management, LLC	2.79%4.62M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.44%4.05M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	2.38%3.94M shares
FCPM III SERVICES B.V.	2.32%3.85M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.26%3.74M shares
Kersten Dirk	≈2.17%3.59M shares
Rhodes Jason P	≈2.08%3.44M shares
Vestal Point Capital, LP	2.04%3.38M shares
ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC	1.95%3.24M shares
Frazier Life Sciences Management, L.P.	1.90%3.15M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	1.90%3.15M shares
ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC	1.86%3.09M shares

Percentages use 165.67M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Oct 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Oct 1, 2024–Sep 30, 2026

Buys8$1.19M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)167$185.90M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Sep 8, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Friedl-Naderer JohannaChief Commercial Officer	SellCommon Stock	185	$18.88	$3.5K	152.9K
Sep 8, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Kerr DouglasChief Medical Officer	SellCommon Stock	1.3K	$18.88	$24.4K	162.6K
Sep 8, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Cox JohnCEO & President	SellCommon Stock	5.7K	$18.88	$106.8K	357.5K
Sep 4, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Friedl-Naderer JohannaChief Commercial Officer	SellCommon Stock	900	$24.35	$21.9K	153.1K
Sep 4, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Kerr DouglasChief Medical Officer	SellCommon Stock	3.7K	$24.35	$91.2K	163.9K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Community posts

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Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. (DYN)

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Novartis’ DM1 trial misses its primary endpoint