Axt Inc (AXTI)

Price$64.70Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-10 23:32 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price assumes years of exceptional growth, making the shares expensive despite recent operating improvement.

Using 65.6 million shares outstanding, the observed price implies roughly a $3.69 billion market value. After subtracting the supplied $326 million net-cash position, enterprise value is about $3.36 billion. Trailing twelve-month revenue through June was about $125.5 million, so the business trades near 27 times sales after net cash. Even annualizing the unusually strong second quarter leaves roughly 18 times sales. Those are demanding multiples for a company whose 2025 operations and cash flow were still loss-making. StockAnalysis.com+1 Pasted text

Big pictureDemand has surged, but the recent profit jump is too new to prove durable earnings or cash generation.

Second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $47.6 million versus $18.0 million a year earlier, while gross margin rose to 44.9% from 8.0% and operating income reached $10.4 million. Yet six-month operating cash flow was negative $0.9 million and capital spending was $8.6 million, leaving about negative $9.5 million of free cash flow, meaning cash after running and investing in the business. Annual revenue also fell from $141.1 million in 2022 to $75.8 million in 2023 and stayed below $100 million in 2024-2025. AXT, Inc.+1

Business strengthA stronger balance sheet and customer commitments reduce financing risk, but heavy dilution limits per-share upside.

At June 30, cash was $412.2 million against $86.0 million of supplied total debt, providing a substantial cushion. But shares outstanding rose from 44.2 million at 2023 year-end to about 65.6 million by mid-2026, roughly 48% dilution. The April offering alone issued 9.84 million shares and raised $632.5 million gross. Customer funding helps: Coherent prepaid $22.3 million, Casela committed about $25.4 million for 2027, and Lumentum agreed to an initial $43.5 million deposit. Deposits support capacity, but they are not profit and some can be refunded. SEC+3SEC+3SEC+3

What could change the storyThe valuation can work only if rapid indium-phosphide growth persists while margins and export access stay strong.

The bull case needs Q2's step-up to become a new base, not a peak. A useful checkpoint is quarterly revenue moving beyond $60 million while gross margin stays near 40% or better and operating cash flow remains positive across several quarters. The bear case is stalled export permits or weaker optical demand forcing volume and margins back down. At a valuation of 30 times annual profit, today's market value would require roughly $123 million of yearly net income, about 2.8 times Q2's annualized profit, so substantial further scaling is already implied. SEC+1

AI: News

Q2 profit inflectionSecond-quarter revenue and margins surged, turning a year-earlier loss into profit and resetting growth expectations.

On July 30, AXT reported Q2 revenue of $47.6 million versus $26.9 million in Q1 and $18.0 million a year earlier; gross margin rose to 44.9%, and net income attributable to AXT was $11.1 million. Benzinga reported shares had already gained nearly 27% in regular trading and moved higher after the results. The after-hours reaction is consistent with enthusiasm over the earnings beat, while the regular-session gain also overlapped with the Lumentum announcement, so attribution is not clean causation. AXT, Inc.+1

Lumentum six-year commitmentA six-year capacity agreement added long-term demand visibility and substantial customer funding for expansion.

The agreement was signed July 26 and announced July 29. Lumentum committed to reserve minimum annual indium-phosphide capacity through 2031, with an initial $43.5 million deposit due within 30 business days and a second $43.5 million deposit contemplated for 2028. The deposits become shipment credits; if AXT misses committed capacity, unused amounts can be refundable. This materially improves demand visibility and helps finance expansion, but it also raises the cost of execution failures. SEC

Coherent and Casela contractsTwo customer agreements converted strong indium-phosphide demand into prepaid or minimum-purchase commitments.

Casela's June 11 agreement covers about $25.4 million of 2027 purchases, with at least 80% minimum volume and half the price prepaid shortly after signing. Coherent's June 25 agreement added a three-year 6-inch indium-phosphide program and a $22.3 million prepayment for capacity expansion. On July 8, Investing.com reported AXTI up 6.3% in morning trading and linked the continuing rally to the Coherent deal and contract pipeline. That attribution is plausible but not exclusive. SEC+2SEC+2

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009
Revenue	$88.3M	$99.4M	$75.8M	$141.1M	$137.4M	$95.4M	$83.3M	$102.4M	$98.7M	$81.3M	$77.5M	$83.5M	$85.3M	$88.4M	$104.1M	$95.5M	$55.4M
Gross profit	$11.2M	$23.8M	$13.3M	$52.1M	$47.4M	$30.3M	$24.8M	$37.0M	$34.5M	$26.4M	$16.8M	$17.2M	$11.8M	$24.9M	$44.8M	$36.5M	$13.9M
Gross margin	12.73%	23.99%	17.57%	36.93%	34.51%	31.75%	29.82%	36.18%	34.94%	32.43%	21.71%	20.56%	13.86%	28.12%	43.01%	38.22%	25.05%
Research & development	$9.0M	$14.5M	$12.1M	$13.9M	$10.3M	$7.1M	$5.8M	$5.9M	$4.8M	$5.8M	$5.7M	$4.1M	$3.4M	$3.5M	$2.5M	$2.3M	$1.6M
Operating expenses	$33.2M	$38.6M	$34.9M	$39.6M	$34.5M	$26.3M	$25.1M	$24.9M	$21.8M	$20.0M	$21.7M	$20.0M	$19.5M	$18.9M	$17.3M	$16.3M	$15.5M
Operating income	−$22.0M	−$14.8M	−$21.6M	$12.6M	$12.9M	$3.9M	−$314,000	$12.1M	$12.6M	$6.4M	−$4.9M	−$2.9M	−$7.7M	$6.0M	$27.5M	$20.2M	−$1.6M
Operating margin	−24.88%	−14.90%	−28.46%	8.90%	9.39%	4.13%	−0.38%	11.86%	12.81%	7.90%	−6.32%	−3.42%	−8.98%	6.75%	26.39%	21.14%	−2.88%
EBITDA	−$12.9M	−$5.8M	−$12.8M	$20.7M	$20.0M	$8.3M	$5.2M	$17.0M	$17.1M	$11.3M	$595,000	$2.8M	−$2.2M	$9.9M	$30.9M	$23.1M	$1.5M
EBITDA margin	−14.57%	−5.86%	−16.95%	14.65%	14.54%	8.68%	6.27%	16.62%	17.29%	13.88%	0.77%	3.34%	−2.57%	11.19%	29.66%	24.19%	2.64%
Net income	−$21.3M	−$11.6M	−$17.9M	$15.8M	$14.6M	$3.2M	−$2.6M	$9.7M	$10.1M	$5.6M	−$2.2M	−$1.4M	−$8.0M	$3.1M	$20.3M	$18.7M	−$1.9M
Net profit margin	−24.07%	−11.70%	−23.59%	11.20%	10.61%	3.40%	−3.12%	9.43%	10.28%	6.93%	−2.87%	−1.66%	−9.33%	3.52%	19.52%	19.53%	−3.43%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.49	-$0.27	-$0.42	$0.37	$0.35	$0.08	-$0.07	$0.24	$0.27	$0.17	-$0.07	-$0.05	-$0.25	$0.09	$0.63	$0.60	-$0.07
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.49	-$0.27	-$0.42	$0.37	$0.34	$0.07	-$0.07	$0.24	$0.26	$0.17	-$0.07	-$0.05	-$0.25	$0.09	$0.61	$0.57	-$0.07

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

7.74%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.5.07M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of AXTI
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	7.74%5.07M shares
Marex Group Ltd	5.44%3.56M shares
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	5.38%3.53M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.15%2.72M shares
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	3.43%2.25M shares
YOUNG MORRIS S	≈3.28%2.15M shares
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.	3.12%2.05M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.68%1.76M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.65%1.74M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.26%1.48M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	2.26%1.48M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	2.01%1.32M shares
Clear Street Group Inc.	2.00%1.31M shares
Invesco Ltd.	1.74%1.14M shares
CITIGROUP INC	1.61%1.06M shares
SG Americas Securities, LLC	1.53%1M shares
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC	1.30%854.32K shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.25%819.56K shares
UBS Group AG	1.00%654.12K shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	0.97%639.04K shares

Percentages use 65.57M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$40.8K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)47$78.17M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 15, 2026Form 4	CHEN JESSEDirector	SellCommon Stock	6.2K	$115.24	$711.3K	50.3K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4	CHANG DAVID CDirector	SellCommon Stock	8.3K	$111.17	$926.4K	65.2K
Jun 12, 2026Form 4	CHEN JESSEDirector	SellCommon Stock	13.0K	$95.77	$1.25M	56.4K
Jun 11, 2026Form 4	CHEN JESSEDirector	SellCommon Stock	9.0K	$88.55	$797.0K	69.4K
Jun 10, 2026Form 4	CHEN JESSEDirector	SellCommon Stock	9.0K	$86.73	$780.6K	78.4K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Axt Inc (AXTI)

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