Bunge Global SA (BG)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look reasonably priced, but not cheap enough for the merger risks.

At $105.07, Bunge costs about 11.1 times the midpoint of management’s 2026 adjusted earnings forecast of $9.25-$9.75 per share; adjusted earnings remove selected timing effects and deal costs. Against management’s $13 mid-cycle goal, the multiple falls to 8.1 times, while 2025 reported earnings of $4.91 imply 21.4 times. That wide range makes the apparent bargain fragile. The $2.88 dividend yields about 2.7%, but heavy debt and unproven merger benefits support a Fair-priced verdict rather than an extreme.

Big pictureProfits and cash swing sharply with crop markets, inventories, and trade flows.

Annual net income fell from $2.24 billion in 2023 to $1.14 billion in 2024 and $816 million in 2025. Operating cash moved even more: negative $2.89 billion in 2021 and $5.55 billion in 2022, then positive $3.31 billion in 2023, $1.90 billion in 2024, and $844 million in 2025. Free cash flow—cash left after operations and capital spending—was therefore negative $879 million in 2025 after $1.72 billion of investment. This volatility makes any single-year earnings multiple unreliable.

Business strengthBunge’s global network captures trade shifts, while debt limits its downside protection.

At June 2026, current assets of $26.22 billion exceeded current liabilities of $16.73 billion, helped by $15.46 billion of inventories. Yet debt totaled about $15.21 billion against only $593 million of cash, leaving roughly $14.62 billion of net debt and expected 2026 interest expense of $620-$660 million. Viterra also lifted diluted shares to 195 million from 136 million a year earlier. Bunge completed $2 billion of merger-related buybacks and authorized another $3 billion, but debt reduction must compete with those shareholder returns.

What could change the storySuccessful merger savings could unlock value, while weaker processing profits would expose the leverage.

Management’s bull case is $13 of mid-cycle earnings per share, rising to at least $15 by 2030; today’s price would then equal only 8.1 or 7.0 times earnings. Q2’s stronger soybean and softseed processing supports that possibility. The bear case is that favorable crush margins—what processors retain after buying crops and selling products—fade before Viterra savings arrive, pulling profit toward 2025’s $4.91 per share while interest stays high. Sustained $13 earnings and falling net debt would strengthen the case; renewed cash deficits would weaken it.

$105.07 price considered

AI: News

Guidance Raised AgainSecond-quarter profit improved and guidance rose, yet investors punished the shares as uncertainty remained.

On July 29, 2026, Bunge reported adjusted earnings of $2.00 per share, up from $1.31, and lifted full-year guidance to $9.25-$9.75 from $9.00-$9.50. Soybean and softseed processing improved, while grain-merchandising expectations fell. The stock closed 8.2% lower at $107.78 versus $117.37 previously. The timing shows a negative reaction but does not prove one cause; financial reporting highlighted concern that more of the year’s result depended on a less visible second half.

First Guidance JumpManagement sharply raised its annual profit forecast as oilseed processing conditions improved.

On April 29, 2026, adjusted earnings were $1.83 per share versus $1.81 a year earlier. Bunge raised its 2026 adjusted earnings range sharply to $9.00-$9.50 from $7.50-$8.00 as oilseed processing conditions improved. Reported earnings were only $0.35 because temporary contract revaluations and deal costs reduced the accounting result. Management also raised expected net interest expense to $620-$660 million, showing that higher operating expectations came with a more expensive balance sheet.

Investor Day TargetsNew profit and buyback goals increased the value placed on successful Viterra integration.

On March 10, 2026, management set a roughly $13 mid-cycle earnings-per-share baseline and at least $15 by 2030, explicitly relying on Viterra integration, projects, and portfolio work. The board authorized up to $3 billion of buybacks and targeted returning at least half of discretionary cash flow through dividends and repurchases. These goals support a higher valuation only if earnings and cash actually arrive; the authorization can be slowed or stopped and is not a completed return.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Revenue	$16.94B	$15.55B	$17.83B	$21.07B	$16.81B
Gross profit	$3.41B	$3.39B	$4.84B	$3.68B	$3.36B
Research & development	$28.0M	$30.0M	$35.0M	$33.0M	$33.0M
Net income	$816.0M	$1.14B	$2.24B	$1.61B	$2.08B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$4.95	$8.09	$15.07	$10.83	$14.50
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$4.91	$7.99	$14.87	$10.51	$13.64

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$408.6K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)3$2.72M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 11, 2026Form 4	Garros JulioChief Operating Officer	SellCommon Stock	2.8K	$119.00	$336.9K	127.8K
Nov 21, 2025Form 4	Dimopoulos ChristosExecutive VP, Global Markets	SellCommon Stock	20.0K	$94.37	$1.89M	104.5K
Nov 21, 2025Form 4	Dimopoulos ChristosExecutive VP, Global Markets	SellCommon Stock	5.3K	$94.38	$500.2K	124.5K
Aug 18, 2025Form 4	Mahoney ChristopherDirector	BuyCommon Stock	5.0K	$81.73	$408.6K	7.2K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Bunge Global SA (BG)

Financial charts

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Insider buys & sells