CITIGROUP INC (C)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe price looks reasonable, but it leaves little room for execution mistakes.

The latest available close before the research time was $139.33 on August 14. That equals 1.38 times June tangible book value of $100.89, meaning net assets excluding goodwill and similar items, and about 15 times trailing reported earnings of $9.26 a share. A bank valuation using 3% long-run growth and a 10%–10.5% required return implies Citi must sustain roughly 12.7%–13.4% returns on tangible equity. Recent performance supports that range, but management’s targets do not provide a large safety margin.

Big pictureProfit is improving, but trading cycles and card losses still make earnings uneven.

Revenue rose from $75.5 billion in 2020 to $85.2 billion in 2025, but net income ranged from $9.2 billion to $22.0 billion during 2021–2025. Second-quarter 2026 revenue grew 14% and net income grew 45%, with gains across all five main businesses. However, expenses increased 5% and net credit losses rose 8%. Reported operating cash flow is not a useful durability measure for a bank because deposit, loan, and trading-asset movements create large swings; earnings, deposits, credit losses, and regulatory capital are more informative.

Business strengthGlobal cash services and a solid capital cushion support resilience through weaker markets.

Services produced $6.4 billion of second-quarter revenue, up 18%, and a 30.9% return on tangible equity, supported by $1.02 trillion of average deposits. Firmwide deposits reached $1.49 trillion against $794 billion of loans. Citi’s 12.8% core capital ratio was 1.2 percentage points above its 11.6% requirement; this ratio measures the strongest loss-absorbing capital against risk-weighted assets. The Federal Reserve projected a 10.3% minimum under its severe recession scenario. That is meaningful protection, although buybacks and balance-sheet growth can reduce the cushion.

What could change the storyHigher lasting returns would justify the price, while costly buybacks or credit losses would not.

The bull case requires Citi to sustain its 2027–2028 target of 11%–13% returns on tangible equity and move toward 14%–15% later; that would make today’s valuation more attractive. The bear case is a return toward 2025’s 7.7%, caused by weaker trading, higher card losses, or stubborn costs. Citi repurchased $13.25 billion of shares in 2025 and launched a $30 billion program in 2026. Repurchases lift earnings per share, but buying around $139 against $100.89 of tangible book value reduces tangible book value per remaining share, as Citi acknowledged.

$139.33 price considered

AI: News

Strong quarter, cautious outlookQuarterly profit jumped, but rising costs and cautious guidance outweighed the earnings beat.

On July 14, Citi reported second-quarter net income of $5.8 billion, up 45%, while revenue increased 14% to $24.8 billion and earnings reached $3.15 a share. Expenses nevertheless rose 5%, and management retained its 10%–11% full-year return target despite stronger first-half results. Shares closed 5.3% lower that day. Reuters attributed investor concern to expected second-half spending and the restrained outlook, although a one-day move can reflect several factors.

Stress test supports payoutsStress-test results protected capital returns and supported a higher dividend.

On June 24, the Federal Reserve projected Citi’s strongest capital ratio would bottom at 10.3% in its severe scenario, down from 13.2%. Citi said the implied stress buffer improved to 3.3%, although its binding buffer remains 3.6% until 2027. The bank subsequently raised its quarterly dividend 12%, from $0.60 to $0.67, and continued its $30 billion repurchase program. The result matters because regulatory capital directly limits dividends, buybacks, and balance-sheet growth.

Higher return targetsManagement raised longer-term profit goals and committed to a large buyback.

At its May 7 investor day, Citi targeted an 11%–13% return on tangible equity for 2027 and 2028 and 14%–15% during 2029–2031. It also detailed a multiyear $30 billion share-repurchase authorization. These targets raised the potential value of Citi’s earnings base but also clarified how much improvement investors must assume. The near-term range was described by some analysts as modest, while the medium-term range depends on continued revenue growth, lower structural costs, and successful use of deferred tax assets.

Banamex sale advancesBanamex stake sales advanced Citi’s exit, but full separation remains unfinished.

On April 29, Citi completed the sale of 22.6% of a previously agreed 24% Banamex stake, with the remaining 1.4% expected to close later. Together with an earlier 25% sale, the committed transactions would reduce Citi’s ownership by 49%. Citi said it expected no additional sales during 2026. The transaction advances a long-running exit from Mexican consumer banking and can release capital and simplify reporting, but the timing and value of Citi’s eventual disposal of the remaining interest remain uncertain.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$85.22B	$80.72B	$78.07B	$75.34B	$71.88B	$75.50B	$75.07B	$72.85B	$72.44B	$70.80B	$76.35B	$77.22B	$76.72B	$69.19B	$77.33B	$86.60B	$80.28B	$51.60B	$77.30B
Operating expenses	$55.13B	$53.57B	$55.97B	$51.29B	$48.19B	$44.37B	$42.78B	$41.84B	$42.23B	$42.34B	$43.62B	$55.05B	$48.41B	$50.04B	$50.25B	$47.38B	$47.82B	$69.24B	$58.74B
Net income	$14.31B	$12.68B	$9.23B	$14.85B	$21.95B	$11.05B	$19.40B	$18.05B	−$6.80B	$14.91B	$17.24B	$7.31B	$13.66B	$7.54B	$11.07B	$10.60B	−$1.61B	−$27.68B	$3.62B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$7.11	$6.03	$4.07	$7.04	$10.21	$4.74	$8.08	$6.69	-$2.98	$4.72	$5.41	$2.21	$4.35	$2.51	$3.73	$3.65	-$7.99	-$5.63	$0.68
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$6.99	$5.94	$4.04	$7.00	$10.14	$4.72	$8.04	$6.68	-$2.98	$4.72	$5.40	$2.20	$4.34	$2.44	$3.63	$3.54	-$7.99	-$5.63	$0.67

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)33$43.73M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 8, 2026Form 4	DUGAN JOHN CUNNINGHAMDirector	SellCommon Stock	2.1K	$125.30	$265.3K	12.2K
Apr 15, 2026Form 4	Skyler EdwardHd of Ent Svc & Public Affairs	SellCommon Stock	25.0K	$131.41	$3.29M	182.0K
Apr 15, 2026Form 4	Giles NicoleCHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	12.7K	$131.80	$1.68M	97.7K
Feb 20, 2026Form 4	Mason MarkChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock	2.0K	$114.96	$229.9K	233.8K
Feb 20, 2026Form 4	Mason MarkChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock	1.6K	$114.40	$186.1K	235.8K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CITIGROUP INC (C)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells