Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)

Price$199.21Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-25 13:02 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares still demand a strong earnings recovery despite three straight quarterly losses.

At the observed price, Coinbase is worth about $45.5 billion using 263.8 million recent shares outstanding. The last four reported quarters produced about $6.28 billion of revenue but a $988 million net loss, putting the stock near 7.2 times recent revenue. Even using 2025 diluted earnings of $4.45 per share, the valuation is roughly 39 times earnings. That leaves little traditional value-investor margin of safety unless profitability rebounds sharply and stays well above current levels.

Big pictureCoinbase remains highly profitable in good crypto markets but earnings still swing dramatically.

Revenue moved from $7.84 billion in 2021 to $3.19 billion in 2022, then recovered to $7.18 billion in 2025. Net income swung from a $2.62 billion loss in 2022 to $2.58 billion profit in 2024, then $1.26 billion in 2025. The cycle has weakened again: both 2026 quarters reported losses. Operating cash flow, cash generated by normal operations, totaled about $1.71 billion over the latest four quarters, but that figure is also volatile. A durable valuation therefore cannot safely capitalize peak-year profits.

Business strengthA strong balance sheet and broader products give Coinbase meaningful protection against trading downturns.

Coinbase ended June with about $8.61 billion of cash versus $6.48 billion of debt, leaving roughly $2.13 billion of net cash. Its business is also broadening: second-quarter crypto trading market share reached 10.3%, while average USDC held in Coinbase products reached $20 billion. Deribit added a major derivatives franchise, although its $4.3 billion purchase price included about $3.57 billion of Coinbase shares and created substantial goodwill. These assets strengthen the bull case, but investors still need diversification to convert into steadier reported profits.

What could change the storySustained non-trading growth could justify the valuation, while persistent losses would expose its weakness.

The strongest bull case is that derivatives, stablecoins, subscriptions and prediction markets make earnings less dependent on spot trading while crypto activity recovers. The strongest bear case is that diversification raises costs faster than dependable revenue: research spending reached roughly $999 million in the first half, and stock compensation was about $486 million. Share count is down from year-end 2025 after sizable buybacks, but remains above 2024 after acquisition-related issuance. A return toward 2024-level earnings would make today’s valuation much easier to defend; continued losses would not.

AI: News

Third quarterly lossWeak crypto trading produced another loss, reinforcing doubts about how durable Coinbase earnings really are.

On July 30, Coinbase reported a third consecutive quarterly loss. Second-quarter transaction revenue fell 21% from a year earlier to $599 million, while the company lost $359.5 million. Subscription and services revenue also declined 12.2% to about $555 million. Reuters reported the shares fell roughly 5% around the release. The reaction is consistent with investors lowering near-term profit expectations, although price timing alone cannot prove the earnings report caused every part of the move.

Crypto rules advanceFresh regulatory progress lifted crypto optimism because clearer rules could expand Coinbase activity and products.

During August 18-20, the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed new crypto rules and President Trump urged Congress to advance the Clarity Act. The proposed framework could create clearer paths for token offerings and classification, potentially increasing assets and activity available through regulated platforms. Reuters reported Coinbase gained about 6% on August 20 alongside a broader crypto rally. That move also reflected rising Bitcoin prices and improving risk appetite, so attributing it solely to regulation would be too strong.

Earlier earnings missThe first-quarter surprise loss showed the current earnings slowdown was becoming more than a one-quarter problem.

On May 7, Coinbase reported a first-quarter loss of $1.49 per share and revenue of about $1.41 billion, below market expectations cited by Reuters. The shares fell about 5% in extended trading after the surprise loss. Crypto trading activity had weakened as digital-asset prices and risk appetite fell. This mattered because it followed a fourth-quarter loss and established a pattern that the later second-quarter report extended, reducing confidence that 2025 profitability represented a stable earnings base.

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Revenue

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2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

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2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$7.18B	$6.56B	$3.11B	$3.19B	$7.84B	$1.28B	$533.7M
Research & development	$1.67B	$1.47B	$1.32B	$2.33B	$1.29B	$271.7M	$185.0M
Operating expenses	$5.75B	$4.26B	$3.27B	$5.90B	$4.76B	$868.5M	$579.5M
Operating income	$1.44B	$2.31B	−$161.7M	−$2.71B	$3.08B	$409.0M	−$45.8M
Operating margin	19.99%	35.15%	−5.20%	−84.85%	39.24%	32.01%	−8.58%
EBITDA	$1.62B	$2.43B	−$22.0M	−$2.56B	$3.14B	$439.9M	−$28.9M
EBITDA margin	22.61%	37.09%	−0.71%	−80.02%	40.06%	34.44%	−5.42%
Net income	$1.26B	$2.58B	$94.9M	−$2.62B	$3.62B	$322.3M	−$30.4M
Net profit margin	17.55%	39.29%	3.05%	−82.18%	46.23%	25.23%	−5.69%
Basic EPSper basic share	$4.85	$10.42	$0.40	-$11.81	$17.47	$1.58	-$0.50
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$4.45	$9.48	$0.37	-$11.83	$14.50	$1.40	-$0.50

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

7.50%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.16.71M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of COIN
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	7.50%16.71M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	6.36%14.17M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.30%9.57M shares
STATE STREET CORP	4.29%9.56M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.76%6.15M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	1.71%3.8M shares
Paradigm Operations LP	1.43%3.19M shares
NORGES BANK	1.25%2.79M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.14%2.54M shares
ARK Investment Management LLC	1.13%2.51M shares
UBS Group AG	1.04%2.31M shares
Clear Street Group Inc.	1.04%2.31M shares
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc.	0.92%2.05M shares
Invesco Ltd.	0.90%2.01M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	0.85%1.89M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.82%1.83M shares
BARCLAYS PLC	0.77%1.71M shares
Capital World Investors	0.76%1.7M shares
Amova Asset Management Americas, Inc.	0.72%1.6M shares
a16z Perennial Management, L.P.	0.66%1.47M shares

Percentages use 222.75M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)1078$1.63B disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 5, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Jones Jennifer N.Chief Accounting Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	2.1K	$158.15	$324.4K	0
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	WILSON FREDERICK RDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	200	$186.17	$37.2K	30.0K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	WILSON FREDERICK RDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	900	$185.46	$166.9K	30.2K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	WILSON FREDERICK RDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	1.2K	$184.22	$221.1K	31.1K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	WILSON FREDERICK RDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	500	$183.05	$91.5K	32.3K