CARRIER GLOBAL Corp (CARR)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because today's price already assumes a strong profit recovery.

At $62.78, 824.32 million shares imply a $51.75 billion market value. Carrier’s $2.90 adjusted 2026 earnings forecast puts the price at 21.6 times earnings. Its $2 billion free-cash-flow forecast—cash left after running and investing in the business—gives a modest 3.9% cash yield. Adding $10.61 billion of debt minus cash values the operations near $62.36 billion, or 17.8 times forecast adjusted operating profit. Those prices leave limited protection if margins recover slowly, supporting an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureCash generation has recovered, but housing and transport cycles still create sharp swings.

SEC-derived figures show revenue falling 3.3% to $21.75 billion in 2025, while free cash flow rebounded to $2.12 billion from only $44 million in 2024. Earlier annual cash results mostly ranged from $1.38 billion to $2.17 billion, showing useful but uneven durability. First-half 2026 free cash flow was $795 million, down from $988 million, although management retained its $2 billion yearly forecast. Residential equipment, China cooling systems, and truck refrigeration have recently weakened, making earnings sensitive to replacement demand, construction, and transport cycles.

Business strengthStrong demand and share repurchases help owners, but heavy debt weakens the safety cushion.

Second-quarter orders rose about 40%, commercial cooling orders rose 65%, and data-center orders exceeded 300% growth, supporting future sales. However, June debt minus cash was $10.61 billion, more than five times forecast 2026 free cash flow; current assets of $9.41 billion only slightly exceeded current liabilities of $9.23 billion. Carrier spent $2.89 billion on repurchases and $772 million on dividends during 2025, reducing year-end shares by 4.8%. Compensation paid in shares was only $74 million, so dilution is controlled, but debt makes expensive repurchases less reassuring.

What could change the storyFaster data-center growth could justify the price, while weak margins would expose it.

The strongest bull case is that record backlog converts into sustained commercial and data-center sales while residential demand normalizes. That could lift adjusted operating profit above the current $3.5 billion forecast and make today’s valuation less demanding. The bear case is already visible: second-quarter adjusted operating margin fell to 17.2% from 19.1% as input costs and product mix outweighed volume and productivity. A durable margin recovery toward 19%, free cash flow clearly above $2 billion, and falling net debt would strengthen the case; continued margin erosion or missed cash targets would weaken it.

$62.78 price considered

AI: News

Forecast Raised, Shares FallManagement raised its yearly forecast, but shrinking profit margins unsettled the market.

On July 28, Carrier reported second-quarter sales of $6.35 billion, up 4%, and adjusted earnings of $0.86 per share. It raised 2026 forecasts to about $23 billion of sales and $2.90 of adjusted earnings per share. However, adjusted operating margin fell to 17.2% from 19.1%. Shares closed 8.9% lower at $63.16 and lost another 5.1% the next day. The timing suggests concern about profit quality and recovery assumptions, although it does not prove those were the only causes.

Portfolio Sales CompletedTwo business sales sharpened Carrier's focus and produced cash, while reducing near-term revenue.

Carrier completed the Riello sale on July 1 for approximately $440 million of gross proceeds, then completed the NORESCO sale on August 3 with financial terms undisclosed. Management estimates the exits will reduce 2026 revenue comparisons by roughly $225 million and $125 million, respectively. The transactions can fund debt reduction or investment in core cooling products, but they also remove revenue and NORESCO’s energy-services exposure. No reliable, isolated stock-price reaction was established for either completion.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Revenue	$21.75B	$22.49B	$18.95B	$17.29B	$20.61B	$17.46B	$18.61B	$18.91B
Research & development	$625.0M	$686.0M	$493.0M	$416.0M	$503.0M	$419.0M	$401.0M	$400.0M
Operating income	$2.17B	$2.65B	$2.16B	$3.98B	$2.65B	$3.08B	$2.49B	$3.64B
EBITDAderived	$3.45B	$3.88B	$2.65B	$4.31B	$2.98B	$3.42B	$2.83B	$3.99B
Net income	$1.48B	$5.60B	$1.35B	$3.53B	$1.70B	$2.01B	$2.15B	$2.77B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$1.74	$6.24	$1.61	$4.19	$1.92	$2.29	$2.44	$3.16
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$1.72	$6.15	$1.58	$4.10	$1.87	$2.25	$2.44	$3.16

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$1.02M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)6$1.07B disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 20, 2026Form 4	Viessmann MaximilianDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	12.09M	$62.01	$750.00M	37.98M
Nov 25, 2025Form 4	Gitlin David L.Chairman and CEO	BuyCommon Stock	19.3K	$52.62	$1.02M	534.5K
Jun 5, 2025Form 4	Viessmann MaximilianDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	4.27M	$70.30	$300.00M	54.34M
Feb 14, 2025Form 4	Crockett KyleVP, Controller & CAO	SellCommon Stock	18.9K	$65.18	$1.23M	4.6K
Nov 7, 2024Form 4	Crockett KyleVP, Controller & CAO	SellCommon Stock	11.6K	$76.34	$889.1K	2.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CARRIER GLOBAL Corp (CARR)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells