CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkStrong results do not justify paying more than forty times recent earnings.

At the August 14 close of $846.45, Casey’s traded at 44.2 times FY2026 diluted earnings of $19.16 a share. Using 36.9 million shares, its equity value was about $31.2 billion. Adding $1.91 billion of net debt gives a total business value near $33.2 billion, or 22.3 times annual operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Free cash flow—cash from operations minus capital spending—was $722 million, only a 2.3% yield. Those demanding valuations support an overvalued verdict.

Big pictureProfit and cash have grown strongly, but unusually rich fuel margins aided the latest year.

Net income more than doubled from $313 million in FY2021 to $714 million in FY2026, while operating cash rose from $804 million to $1.38 billion. Cash remaining after capital spending improved from $363 million to $722 million, supporting durability. However, FY2026 fuel gross profit jumped 21%, and the annual report described fourth-quarter fuel margins as historically high. Fuel profitability can vary with wholesale-price volatility. The steadier inside-store business remained healthy: comparable sales rose 4.2% and inside gross profit reached $2.68 billion.

Business strengthCasey’s can service its debt, while buybacks have modestly reduced the share count.

At April 30, Casey’s held $523 million of cash against $2.43 billion of debt, leaving $1.91 billion of net debt; current assets only slightly exceeded current liabilities. That burden appears manageable beside $1.48 billion of annual operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and $1.4 billion of stated liquidity. Debt fell $77 million during FY2026. Casey’s spent $201 million repurchasing shares and $83 million on dividends; shares outstanding fell 0.6% despite $63 million of employee share compensation. The balance sheet is adequate, but offers little valuation protection.

What could change the storyThe price needs many years of growth above management’s near-term outlook.

Management forecasts fiscal 2027 operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization growth of 8%–10%, at least 120 openings and $800 million of capital spending. A reverse valuation illustrates the high bar: assuming an 8% annual return and a still-generous 25-times earnings value in ten years, $846 requires earnings per share to grow roughly 14% annually, ignoring the small dividend. This is an inference, not company guidance. Food expansion, acquisitions and buybacks could outperform; normalized fuel profit or heavy construction spending could slow cash growth.

$846.45 price considered

AI: News

Record annual resultsRecord profit and strong guidance were followed by a sharp one-day share-price jump.

After markets closed on June 9, Casey’s reported FY2026 earnings of $19.16 per share, up 30.9%, and nearly $1.5 billion of operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, up 23.6%. It forecast 8%–10% growth in that operating measure for FY2027. Shares closed June 10 at $915.60, up 20.3% from $761.18. The timing is consistent with an enthusiastic response to stronger profit and future cash expectations, although it does not prove the announcement was the only cause.

New expansion planCasey’s plans 400 more stores and greater food sales, raising both growth potential and spending needs.

On June 24, Casey’s announced plans to add at least 400 stores through acquisitions and new construction over three years, expand prepared food and private brands, and improve store efficiency with technology. Management cited 20% year-over-year wing-sales growth in Des Moines as evidence for broader rollout potential. Shares closed 3.7% lower that day, but timing alone cannot attribute the decline to the plan. More stores and higher-margin food could lift cash generation; acquisitions and construction require capital and careful integration.

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009
Revenue	$17.56B	$15.94B	$14.86B	$15.09B	$12.95B	$8.71B	$9.18B	$9.35B	$8.39B	$7.51B	$7.12B	$7.77B	$7.84B	$7.25B	$6.99B	$5.64B	$4.64B	$4.69B
Gross profit	—	—	—	—	—	—	$2.14B	$1.95B	$1.77B	$1.68B	$1.61B	$1.44B	$1.22B	$1.07B	$1.00B	$881.1M	$792.4M	$723.6M
Operating expenses	$2.84B	$2.55B	$2.29B	$2.12B	$1.96B	$1.64B	$1.50B	$1.39B	$1.28B	$1.17B	$1.05B	$960.4M	$857.3M	$760.4M	$688.4M	$607.6M	$526.3M	$504.4M
Net income	$714.4M	$546.5M	$502.0M	$446.7M	$339.8M	$312.9M	$263.8M	$203.9M	$317.9M	$177.5M	$226.0M	$180.6M	$126.8M	$103.8M	$114.7M	$94.6M	$117.0M	$85.7M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$19.28	$14.72	$13.51	$11.99	$9.14	$8.44	$7.14	$5.55	$8.41	$4.54	$5.79	$4.66	$3.30	$2.71	$3.01	$2.24	$2.30	$1.69
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$19.16	$14.64	$13.43	$11.91	$9.10	$8.38	$7.10	$5.51	$8.34	$4.48	$5.73	$4.62	$3.26	$2.69	$2.99	$2.22	$2.29	$1.68

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys7$1.06M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)38$40.45M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 29, 2026Form 4	Lindsey Katrina SChief Legal Officer	SellCommon Stock	2.0K	$800.00	$1.60M	6.7K
Jun 26, 2026Form 4	Spanos MikeDirector	BuyCommon Stock	256	$778.81	$199.4K	4.8K
Mar 13, 2026Form 4	Spanos MikeDirector	BuyCommon Stock	300	$665.43	$199.6K	4.5K
Mar 11, 2026Form 4	Lindsey Katrina SChief Legal Officer	SellCommon Stock	200	$683.04	$136.6K	4.0K
Jan 5, 2026Form 4	Castanon Moats MariaDirector	BuyCommon Stock	300	$554.66	$166.4K	803

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells