CME GROUP INC. (CME)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced, but today’s price leaves little room for slower growth.

At $269.80, CME trades at about 22.9 times trailing earnings of $11.79 per share, meaning buyers pay $22.90 for each dollar earned. Trailing free cash flow—cash left after operations and capital spending—was approximately $4.21 billion, or $11.65 per share, giving a similar 23.2-times valuation and 4.3% cash yield. An editorial range of 20–24 times earnings values the shares near $236–$283. That range brackets the price, supporting a fair-priced verdict rather than a clear bargain.

Big pictureProfit and cash keep rising, though quieter markets can still interrupt that progress.

Revenue increased from $4.88 billion in 2020 to $6.52 billion in 2025, while earnings per share nearly doubled from $5.87 to $11.16. Operating cash flow rose from $2.72 billion to $4.28 billion, and 2025 capital spending consumed only $84 million. This durability reflects CME’s low-cost electronic network. It is not perfectly steady: revenue fell 4% and operating cash fell 12% in 2021 as market activity cooled. First-half 2026 earnings improved strongly, but much of the acceleration came during an unusually active first quarter.

Business strengthDeep markets, modest debt, and generous payouts support resilience without meaningful dilution.

CME reported $2.3 billion of cash and $3.4 billion of debt in June, leaving net debt near $1.1 billion—only about one-quarter of 2025 operating earnings before depreciation. The roughly $158 billion of matched clearing collateral appears in both assets and liabilities and is not ordinary corporate borrowing. CME repurchased $695 million of shares and paid $468 million of dividends during the second quarter. The implied diluted share count fell about 1% year over year, while first-half stock compensation was $47 million. Annual variable dividends add value but make total payouts irregular.

What could change the storySustained record volume would justify the price, while new rivals or calmer markets would not.

The bull case strengthened when July daily volume reached 27 million contracts, up 23%, while international volume rose 32%; second-quarter market-data revenue also grew 20%. These results could support the roughly 6–8% annual earnings and cash growth that, in this analysis, the current valuation requires. The bear case is specific: regulators have allowed rival no-expiry futures, and CME says they could divert retail trading. If competition or calmer markets leave earnings near $11.79 per share, paying almost 23 times earnings would offer limited downside protection and could invite a lower valuation multiple.

$269.80 price considered

AI: News

No-expiry futures threatRegulators allowed no-expiry futures from new rivals, raising fears that CME could lose retail trading.

On June 2, 2026, CME shares fell roughly 4% as investors reacted to regulatory approval permitting Kalshi and Coinbase to offer perpetual futures—contracts that do not expire. Reuters reported that the broader exchange-sector selloff reflected concern that these products might eventually compete beyond cryptocurrency. CME sued the regulator on June 18, alleging unfair competitive injury. The reported market reaction shows investor concern, not proof of future revenue loss; the financial effect depends on customer adoption and whether approvals expand into CME’s core markets.

Strong second quarterStrong second-quarter results reassured investors, helped by heavy trading and record market-data sales.

On July 22, 2026, CME reported $1.71 billion of revenue, $1.04 billion of net income and $2.88 of diluted earnings per share. Daily volume averaged 29.8 million contracts, while market-data revenue rose 20% to a record $238 million. The shares closed 5.0% higher at $249.24 after finishing the prior session at $237.38. The timing and financial coverage support an earnings-related reaction, although they cannot establish that the report alone caused the entire move.

Record July tradingJuly trading reached a record, showing that strong customer activity continued after the quarter ended.

CME announced on August 4, 2026 that July average daily volume reached a record 27 million contracts, up 23% from July 2025. Interest-rate volume was 12.6 million contracts, equity-index volume was 8.2 million, and international activity grew 32% to 8.8 million. Because transaction and clearing fees supply most of CME’s revenue, sustained volume directly supports earnings. No reliable source isolated a one-day stock move caused solely by this release.

Revenue

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2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

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2025

Free cash flow

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2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$6.52B	$6.13B	$5.58B	$5.02B	$4.69B	$4.88B	$4.87B	$4.31B	$3.64B	$3.60B	$3.33B	$3.11B	$2.94B	$2.91B	$3.28B	$3.00B	$2.61B	$2.56B	$1.76B
Operating income	$4.23B	$3.93B	$3.44B	$3.02B	$2.65B	$2.64B	$2.59B	$2.61B	$2.31B	$2.20B	$1.99B	$1.77B	$1.64B	$1.69B	$2.02B	$1.83B	$1.59B	$1.58B	$1.05B
EBITDAderived	$4.34B	$4.05B	$3.56B	$3.15B	$2.79B	$2.79B	$2.75B	$2.73B	$2.42B	$2.33B	$2.12B	$1.90B	$1.77B	$1.83B	$2.15B	$1.96B	$1.72B	$1.72B	$1.16B
Net income	$4.07B	$3.53B	$3.23B	$2.69B	$2.64B	$2.11B	$2.12B	$1.96B	$4.06B	$1.53B	$1.25B	$1.13B	$976.8M	$896.3M	$1.81B	$951.4M	$825.8M	$715.5M	$658.5M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$11.18	$9.69	$8.87	$7.41	$7.30	$5.88	$5.93	$5.73	$12.00	$4.55	$3.71	$3.37	$2.94	$2.71	$5.45	$2.87	$12.44	$12.18	$15.05
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$11.16	$9.67	$8.86	$7.40	$7.29	$5.87	$5.91	$5.71	$11.94	$4.53	$3.69	$3.35	$2.92	$2.70	$5.43	$2.86	$12.41	$12.13	$14.93

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys22$1.59M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)48$54.50M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 25, 2026Form 4	SHEPARD WILLIAM RDirector	BuyCommon Stock Class A · indirect	324.78	$230.57	$74.9K	260.4K
Jun 25, 2026Form 4	SHEPARD WILLIAM RDirector	BuyCommon Stock Class A	14.32	$230.57	$3.3K	3.6K
May 18, 2026Form 4	Piell Hilda HarrisSr MD & Chief HR Officer	SellCommon Stock Class A	5.8K	$304.63	$1.75M	27.7K
May 15, 2026Form 4	DUFFY TERRENCE AChairman and CEO	SellCommon Stock Class A	9.0K	$299.58	$2.70M	55.6K
May 15, 2026Form 4	DUFFY TERRENCE AChairman and CEO	SellCommon Stock Class A	26.0K	$298.14	$7.75M	64.6K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CME GROUP INC. (CME)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells