CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe stock price assumes a strong recovery and offers little room for setbacks.

At $33.42 in pre-market trading, Chipotle was valued near $42.3 billion, about 31 times trailing earnings of roughly $1.08 per share. Trailing free cash flow—cash left after operations and capital spending—was approximately $1.57 billion, giving buyers only a 3.7% cash return at this price. My simplified valuation, assuming a 9% required return and 3% lasting growth, requires about 8% annual cash-flow growth for a decade. That is achievable, but not conservative enough to provide a value-investor cushion.

Big pictureSales keep growing, but earnings have not yet followed the recent rebound.

Revenue nearly doubled from $5.98 billion in 2020 to $11.93 billion in 2025, while operating cash flow more than tripled. Growth then slowed: 2025 revenue rose 5.4%, operating income gained only 1.0%, and net income was essentially flat. First-half 2026 revenue improved 8.4% to $6.44 billion, but net income fell 14.1% to $706 million. Free cash flow increased to about $934 million from $813 million, although working-capital timing means that increase may not fully represent lasting earning power.

Business strengthA debt-free balance sheet is being stretched by unusually large share repurchases.

Chipotle reported no conventional debt at year-end 2025 and held $775 million of cash and investments in June 2026. However, current liabilities exceeded current assets by $374 million, while restaurant leases created $5.42 billion of operating lease obligations. Buybacks totaled $2.43 billion in 2025 and $1.35 billion during first-half 2026, both exceeding free cash flow for those periods. This reduced second-quarter diluted shares by 5.3% year over year and outweighed employee share compensation, but it also depleted liquidity and leaves less protection if restaurant demand weakens.

What could change the storyMore restaurants could justify the price, but traffic and margins must recover.

The strongest bull case is 350–370 planned 2026 openings—roughly 9% of the year-end 2025 restaurant base—combined with sustained positive customer visits. That could support the cash growth implied by the price. The bear case is visible in first-half net income and second-quarter operating margin, which fell to 15.7% from 18.2% as beef, freight, labor, and operating costs rose. The valuation would strengthen if transactions stay positive and margins return above 17%; renewed traffic declines or margins remaining near 16% would weaken it materially.

$33.42 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter reboundSales improved and guidance rose, but lower margins showed the recovery remains incomplete.

On July 29, Chipotle reported second-quarter revenue growth of 9.3%, comparable-restaurant sales growth of 2.2%, and customer-visit growth of 1.0%. Management raised its 2026 comparable-sales outlook from roughly flat to low-single-digit growth. Adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share exceeded the $0.32 consensus, but restaurant-level margin fell from 27.4% to 25.2%. Reuters reported shares rose about 6% after hours; the timing supports an earnings reaction, although other market forces can affect the move.

Jalapeño salmonella investigationChipotle removed suspect jalapeños as a Minnesota outbreak revived costly food-safety fears.

On August 4, Chipotle said it removed jalapeños from affected restaurants and replaced produce from a shared lot while officials investigated a multistate salmonella outbreak. Minnesota reported 110 cases; Chipotle represented most interviewed customers, although illnesses also involved other restaurants and investigators had not completed their work. The state said Chipotle cooperated and its precautions reduced immediate concern. Shares fell nearly 10% that day. The timing is consistent with outbreak fears, but does not prove the news caused the entire decline.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	$11.93B	$11.31B	$9.87B	$8.63B	$7.55B	$5.98B	$5.59B	$4.86B	$4.48B	$3.90B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	$1.94B	$1.92B	$1.56B	$1.16B	$804.9M	$290.2M	$444.0M	$258.4M	$270.8M	$34.6M	$763.6M	$710.8M	$532.7M	$455.9M	$350.6M	$287.8M	$203.7M	$124.0M
EBITDAderived	$2.30B	$2.25B	$1.88B	$1.45B	$1.06B	$528.7M	$656.7M	$460.3M	$434.1M	$180.9M	$894.0M	$821.3M	$628.8M	$540.0M	$425.5M	$356.8M	$265.0M	$176.8M
Net income	$1.54B	$1.53B	$1.23B	$899.1M	$653.0M	$355.8M	$350.2M	$176.6M	$176.3M	$22.9M	$475.6M	$445.4M	$327.4M	$278.0M	$214.9M	$179.0M	$126.8M	$78.2M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$1.15	$1.12	$0.89	$0.65	$23.21	$12.74	$12.62	$6.35	$6.19	$0.78	$15.30	$14.35	$10.58	$8.82	$6.89	$5.73	$3.99	$2.39
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$1.14	$1.11	$0.89	$0.64	$22.90	$12.52	$12.38	$6.31	$6.17	$0.77	$15.10	$14.13	$10.47	$8.75	$6.76	$5.64	$3.95	$2.36

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$498.2K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)34$40.02M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 24, 2026Form 4	FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIADirector	Sellcommon stock	3.4K	$36.58	$122.5K	36.4K
Feb 6, 2026Form 4	Garner Curtis EPres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off	Sellcommon stock	61.1K	$40.01	$2.44M	298.4K
Dec 12, 2025Form 4	Garner Curtis EPres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off	Sellcommon stock	67.6K	$36.05	$2.44M	298.4K
Dec 1, 2025Form 4	Garner Curtis EPres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off	Sellcommon stock	61.9K	$34.67	$2.15M	298.4K
Aug 25, 2025Form 4	Eskenazi IleneChief Human Resources Officer	Sellcommon stock	26.6K	$43.15	$1.15M	84.4K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells