Carpenter Technology Corp (CRS)

Price$474.67Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe business is excellent, but the shares still price in years of unusually strong growth.

At roughly 46 times fiscal 2026 earnings, Carpenter carries a valuation normally reserved for businesses with long, dependable growth. Fiscal 2026 free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was about $362 million, so the equity value is about 65 times that cash flow. Even management’s fiscal 2027 free-cash-flow goal of $400 million to $430 million implies about 55 to 59 times. That leaves little room for merely good results, so I view the shares as overvalued.

Big pictureProfits and cash have surged, yet history shows this manufacturer can swing sharply with aerospace demand.

Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 9% to $3.12 billion, while operating income climbed 35% to $702 million and net income rose 41% to $530 million. Operating cash flow reached $605 million, versus $440 million in 2025 and $275 million in 2024. That improvement looks increasingly durable, but the earlier cycle matters: operating income was negative in 2021 and 2022, and operating cash flow fell to only $6 million in 2022 and $15 million in 2023. More than 60% of revenue now comes from aerospace and defense.

Business strengthLow net debt and scarce alloy capacity give Carpenter room to fund growth without financial strain.

The balance sheet is a genuine strength. Cash was $393 million against $691 million of debt, leaving about $297 million of net debt, meaning debt minus cash. That is roughly 0.35 times recent earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Current assets were 3.8 times current liabilities. Specialty Alloys Operations also reached a record 37.8% adjusted operating margin, meaning operating profit per sales dollar, helped by pricing, product mix and efficiency. Those figures support the bull case that scarce, qualified alloy capacity can keep earning unusually high returns.

What could change the storyFaster aerospace growth can justify the premium, while margin normalization would make today’s valuation hard to defend.

Management targets $850 million to $880 million of operating income in fiscal 2027 and $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion by fiscal 2029. If roughly 75% of operating income became net income, as in 2026, today’s equity value already equals about 24 to 26 times that 2029 earnings estimate, without discounting three years. Shares outstanding are 49.6 million versus 48.0 million in 2021, showing past dilution. Carpenter spent $179 million on 2026 buybacks, finished the old authorization in August, and approved another $1 billion. Buybacks can reverse dilution, but paying a high multiple destroys value if margins or aerospace growth fade.

AI: News

Billion-dollar buybackA new billion-dollar buyback signaled confidence, but it also raises the cost of buying expensive shares.

On August 12, the board authorized up to $1.0 billion of additional repurchases after Carpenter used the remaining $119 million under its prior $400 million program. The new authorization equals roughly 4% of the company’s current equity value and is large relative to fiscal 2026 free cash flow. Shares rose about 1% in the next session, though that timing does not establish causation. The program can lift per-share results, but its value depends heavily on the prices actually paid.

Record year, mixed reactionRecord profits and higher guidance confirmed strong demand, but investors still punished the revenue miss.

On July 30, Carpenter reported record quarterly operating income of $206.9 million and adjusted earnings of $3.23 a share, while fiscal 2027 operating-income guidance called for $850 million to $880 million. Revenue of $851 million was slightly below the market estimate cited by Investing.com. Shares fell about 5% that session. The timing supports a link to the mixed report and high expectations, but price movement alone cannot prove that the revenue miss caused the decline.

Unexpected leadership lossA sudden leadership loss briefly increased uncertainty, although the former chief executive immediately returned.

Carpenter announced on July 27 that chief executive Brian Malloy had died unexpectedly. The board immediately returned longtime former chief executive Tony Thene to the position while he remained chairman, limiting operational discontinuity. The shares fell about 4% that session. The event clearly changed leadership risk, but the same-day move cannot be attributed solely to the announcement because broader trading and valuation pressures may also have contributed.

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009
Revenue	$3.12B	$2.88B	$2.76B	$2.55B	$1.84B	$1.48B	$2.18B	$2.38B	$2.16B	$1.80B	$1.81B	$2.23B	$2.17B	$2.27B	$2.03B	$1.68B	$1.20B	$1.36B
Gross profit	$955.5M	$768.6M	$584.3M	$337.3M	$149.8M	$1.0M	$329.4M	$444.8M	$382.3M	$300.8M	$255.9M	$318.3M	$398.9M	$433.5M	$391.0M	$249.0M	$144.8M	$207.2M
Gross margin	30.58%	26.71%	21.17%	13.23%	8.16%	0.07%	15.10%	18.69%	17.72%	16.73%	14.11%	14.29%	18.36%	19.08%	19.27%	14.86%	12.08%	15.21%
Research & development	$27.7M	$26.1M	$25.6M	$24.4M	$20.4M	$19.7M	$28.0M	$23.3M	$19.3M	$16.9M	$16.3M	$18.7M	$18.5M	$19.4M	$20.5M	$18.9M	$17.8M	$15.4M
Operating expenses	$253.5M	$246.8M	$261.2M	$204.2M	$174.7M	$249.6M	$304.1M	$203.4M	$193.0M	$179.3M	$204.3M	$206.8M	$186.9M	$200.8M	$180.9M	$152.6M	$133.1M	$143.2M
Operating income	$702.0M	$521.8M	$323.1M	$133.1M	−$24.9M	−$248.6M	$25.3M	$241.4M	$189.3M	$121.5M	$51.6M	$111.5M	$212.0M	$232.7M	$210.1M	$96.4M	$11.7M	$64.0M
Operating margin	22.47%	18.14%	11.71%	5.22%	−1.36%	−16.85%	1.16%	10.14%	8.77%	6.76%	2.85%	5.01%	9.76%	10.24%	10.36%	5.75%	0.98%	4.70%
EBITDA	$849.1M	$661.0M	$457.7M	$264.1M	$106.5M	−$125.0M	$149.2M	$362.9M	$305.9M	$239.3M	$170.9M	$233.8M	$323.9M	$336.8M	$293.9M	$162.9M	$70.8M	$113.5M
EBITDA margin	27.18%	22.97%	16.59%	10.36%	5.80%	−8.47%	6.84%	15.25%	14.18%	13.31%	9.42%	10.50%	14.91%	14.83%	14.49%	9.72%	5.91%	8.33%
Net income	$529.8M	$376.0M	$186.5M	$56.4M	−$49.1M	−$229.6M	$1.5M	$167.0M	$188.5M	$47.0M	$11.3M	$58.7M	$132.8M	$146.1M	$121.2M	$71.0M	$2.1M	$47.9M
Net profit margin	16.96%	13.07%	6.76%	2.21%	−2.67%	−15.56%	0.07%	7.02%	8.74%	2.61%	0.62%	2.64%	6.11%	6.43%	5.97%	4.24%	0.18%	3.52%
Basic EPSper basic share	$10.59	$7.50	$3.75	$1.15	-$1.01	-$4.76	$0.02	$3.46	$3.96	$0.99	$0.23	$1.11	$2.48	$2.75	$2.55	$1.59	$0.04	$1.08
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$10.52	$7.42	$3.70	$1.14	-$1.01	-$4.76	$0.02	$3.43	$3.92	$0.99	$0.23	$1.11	$2.47	$2.73	$2.53	$1.59	$0.04	$1.08

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

12.53%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.6.22M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of CRS
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	12.53%6.22M shares
FMR LLC	8.44%4.18M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.36%2.16M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.26%2.11M shares
STATE STREET CORP	3.84%1.91M shares
Invesco Ltd.	3.18%1.58M shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.94%1.46M shares
JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC	2.40%1.19M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	2.38%1.18M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.03%1.01M shares
LONE PINE CAPITAL LLC	1.94%962.84K shares
SANDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.58%786.15K shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.50%745.02K shares
SurgoCap Partners LP	1.38%686.47K shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	1.23%608.72K shares
Thene Tony R	≈1.09%540.52K shares
NORGES BANK	1.04%513.9K shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	1.02%506.17K shares
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	0.93%462.59K shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	0.91%449.56K shares

Percentages use 49.61M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$97.5K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)60$60.20M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 1, 2026Form 4	KAROL STEVEN EDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	2.0K	$487.74	$975.5K	223.4K
May 28, 2026Form 4	HART ANASTASIOS JOHNDirector	SellCommon Stock	250	$461.88	$115.5K	0
May 5, 2026Form 4	AKINS MARSHALL DVP and Chief Comm Officer	SellCommon Stock	235	$443.78	$104.3K	18.3K
May 5, 2026Form 4	AKINS MARSHALL DVP and Chief Comm Officer	SellCommon Stock	3.4K	$443.37	$1.52M	18.6K
May 5, 2026Form 4	AKINS MARSHALL DVP and Chief Comm Officer	SellCommon Stock	2.9K	$442.15	$1.30M	22.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Carpenter Technology Corp (CRS)

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