CSX CORP (CSX)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe recent price asks investors to pay heavily for a recovery that is still developing.

At the August 14 close, CSX was $50.16. Using 1.86 billion year-end shares, that implies about $93 billion of equity value. The last four quarters produced roughly $1.73 per diluted share, so the price is about 29 times trailing earnings. Operating cash less capital spending—cash left after running and investing in the railroad—was about $2.80 billion, only a 3.0% yield. Under a simple 8% return and 2.5% lasting-growth model, the price requires roughly $5.1 billion of next-year cash, making it overvalued despite the rebound.

Big pictureCSX generates dependable cash, but freight cycles can cut it sharply.

Annual operating cash flow stayed positive between $4.26 billion and $5.53 billion from 2020 through 2025, showing durability. However, 2025 revenue fell 5% from 2022, operating income fell 24%, and free cash flow fell to $1.71 billion from $3.41 billion as capital spending climbed. The cycle has turned upward: second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 10%, while net income rose 21%. That rebound is real, but one strong quarter does not erase the coal and industrial demand swings visible in recent years.

Business strengthThe rail network and shrinking share count help owners, while debt limits flexibility.

CSX’s eastern network is difficult to replicate and supported $6.61 billion of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization over the latest four quarters. At June 2026, debt was $17.16 billion against $1.01 billion cash, or about 2.4 times that earnings measure; current liabilities also exceeded current assets by $746 million. Buybacks reduced shares from 2.20 billion in 2021 to 1.86 billion in 2025, while stock pay was small. Yet 2025 buybacks and dividends totaled $2.37 billion, above $1.71 billion of free cash flow.

What could change the storySustained volume and cost gains could justify optimism; a freight slowdown would expose the premium.

The bull case is the second-quarter mix: volume rose 6%, intermodal units rose 9%, and operating margin reached 38.3%, up 2.4 percentage points. Management then projected more than 80% growth in 2026 free cash flow, implying above $3.08 billion from 2025. The bear case is that the price still needs far more: cash approaching $4.5–5.0 billion with stable debt would weaken this overvaluation view. If volume growth fades, annual cash remains near $3 billion, or a combined Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern wins traffic through seamless coast-to-coast service, the premium becomes harder to defend.

$50.16 price considered

AI: News

Recovery gains momentumRecord revenue and stronger margins beat expectations, lifting hopes that the operational recovery is taking hold.

On July 22, 2026, CSX reported second-quarter revenue of $3.94 billion, up 10%, net income of $1.00 billion, up 21%, and earnings of $0.54 a share. Volume rose 6%, led by 9% intermodal growth, and the operating margin improved 2.4 percentage points to 38.3%. Shares gained 5.77% on July 23 after the after-hours release. The timing and reported estimate beat make earnings the likely driver, though one-day movement cannot prove a single cause.

Rival merger advancesA rival coast-to-coast merger moved forward, potentially changing CSX’s competitive position and customer routes.

On May 28, 2026, the Surface Transportation Board accepted Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern’s revised merger application for consideration, but paused the proceeding pending more information. The companies filed supplemental responses on July 27. Approval remains uncertain. If completed, the combined railroad could offer single-network coast-to-coast service that diverts interchange traffic or pressures CSX pricing; CSX has publicly argued the deal would upset competitive balance. No reliable single-day CSX reaction was established, so the valuation link is an inference from industry structure, not observed causation.

Revenue

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$14.09B	$14.54B	$14.66B	$14.85B	$12.52B	$10.58B	$11.94B	$12.25B	$11.41B	$11.07B	$11.81B	$12.67B	$12.03B	$11.76B	$11.79B	$10.64B	$9.04B	$11.26B	$10.03B
Operating expenses	$9.57B	$9.29B	$9.16B	$8.90B	$6.93B	$6.22B	$6.97B	$7.38B	$7.69B	$7.66B	$8.23B	$9.06B	$8.55B	$2.16B	$2.23B	$7.57B	$6.77B	$8.50B	$7.77B
Operating income	$4.52B	$5.25B	$5.50B	$5.95B	$5.59B	$4.36B	$4.96B	$4.87B	$3.72B	$3.41B	$3.58B	$3.61B	$3.47B	$3.46B	$3.47B	$3.07B	$2.27B	$2.75B	$2.26B
EBITDAderived	$6.20B	$6.90B	$7.11B	$7.46B	$7.01B	$5.75B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	$2.89B	$3.47B	$3.67B	$4.11B	$3.78B	$2.77B	$3.33B	$3.31B	$5.47B	$1.71B	$1.97B	$1.93B	$1.86B	$1.86B	$1.85B	$1.56B	$1.14B	$1.35B	$1.34B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$1.54	$1.79	$1.83	$1.93	$1.68	$1.20	$1.39	$3.86	$6.01	$1.81	$2.00	$1.93	$1.83	$1.80	$1.71	$1.37	$0.97	$3.39	$3.11
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$1.54	$1.79	$1.82	$1.92	$1.68	$1.20	$1.39	$3.84	$5.99	$1.81	$2.00	$1.92	$1.83	$1.79	$1.70	$1.35	$0.96	$3.32	$2.99

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys2$3.03M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)10$20.56M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 3, 2026Form 4	Boone Kevin S.EVP & CFO	SellCommon Stock	136.7K	$46.70	$6.38M	208.6K
Jun 3, 2026Form 4	ZILLMER JOHN JDirector	SellCommon Stock	10.0K	$46.45	$464.5K	353.7K
Mar 6, 2026Form 4	ANGEL STEPHEN FPresident & CEO	BuyCommon Stock	25.0K	$40.27	$1.01M	146.5K
Feb 19, 2026Form 4	Sorfleet Diana BEVP & CAO	SellCommon Stock	90.0K	$41.56	$3.74M	165.6K
Feb 3, 2026Form 4	Fortune StephenEVP - CD & TO	SellCommon Stock	31.5K	$38.65	$1.22M	82.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CSX CORP (CSX)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells