DOLLAR TREE, INC. (DLTR)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because solid growth already carries a demanding but reasonable price.

The observed quote was $130.26. Against management’s 2026 adjusted earnings outlook of $6.70–$7.10 a share, that equals 18.3–19.4 times earnings. Using 193.4 million recent shares, the market value is about $25.2 billion. Trailing free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was roughly $1.32 billion, giving a 5.2% cash return on that value. This is neither a clear bargain nor extreme pricing; it assumes management delivers its sales and profit outlook.

Big pictureSales, profit, and cash have recovered, but the short record limits confidence.

Fiscal 2025 revenue rose 10.4% to $19.40 billion, while operating income increased 13.1% to $1.65 billion. Operating cash flow remained near $2.19 billion for a second year; after $1.13 billion of store and infrastructure spending, free cash flow was $1.06 billion. First-quarter 2026 free cash flow improved to $392 million. However, results before the Family Dollar sale are not directly comparable. Dollar Tree can benefit when shoppers seek bargains, yet first-quarter visits fell 1.0%; growth came from customers spending 4.5% more per trip.

Business strengthThe core chain is productive, while aggressive buybacks have reduced financial breathing room.

At May 2, Dollar Tree held $1.01 billion of cash against $2.93 billion of debt, leaving $1.93 billion of net debt. Current assets exceeded near-term liabilities by $514 million, and the revolving credit line was unused, so liquidity appears adequate rather than unusually strong. Shares outstanding fell about 17% from fiscal 2020 to 193.4 million, limiting dilution and increasing each remaining share’s ownership. However, fiscal 2025 buybacks of $1.55 billion exceeded $1.06 billion of free cash flow, while net debt increased, making repurchase prices and future cash generation important.

What could change the storyBetter store traffic could justify the price, while tariffs or weak visits could break it.

The strongest bull case is that multi-price merchandise, better stores, and roughly 400 planned openings sustain 3%–4% comparable-store growth while profit per sales dollar keeps improving. That could make today’s earnings multiple reasonable, especially as buybacks reduce the share count. The bear case is that higher prices mask weak customer visits and tariffs reverse the first quarter’s 1.2-percentage-point gross-margin gain. The August 27 results should show whether second-quarter earnings reach the guided $1.00–$1.15 and whether traffic improves. Missing both would weaken the valuation case materially.

$130.26 price considered

AI: News

First-quarter earnings surgeFirst-quarter sales and profit beat expectations, prompting higher guidance and a sharp share-price jump.

On May 28, Dollar Tree reported first-quarter sales of $4.97 billion, up 7.2%, and adjusted earnings of $1.74 a share, up 38%. Comparable-store sales increased 3.5%, and operating margin rose 1.2 percentage points despite higher tariff costs. Management raised full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $6.70–$7.10 a share. Associated Press reported that the stock rose 17.9% that day, reliably linking the reaction to stronger-than-expected profit and guidance.

Buyback commitment expandsLarge buybacks reduced the share count, but they also used cash and increased balance-sheet risk.

On June 25, Dollar Tree announced a $500 million repurchase alongside Mantle Ridge-affiliated holders’ sale of 12.82 million shares. On July 2, the board restored the total authorization to $2.5 billion, including remaining capacity. Reuters reported a 1.3% premarket rise following the authorization; that reaction supports, but does not prove, investor approval. Repurchases can lift earnings per share by reducing share count, yet cash-funded purchases leave less protection against tariffs, store investment needs, or weaker sales.

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Free cash flow

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	$19.40B	$17.57B	$16.77B	$15.41B	$26.31B	$25.51B	$23.61B	$22.82B	$22.25B	$20.72B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Gross profit	$7.05B	$6.28B	$6.01B	$5.78B	$7.73B	$7.79B	$7.04B	$6.95B	$7.02B	$6.39B	$4.66B	$3.03B	$2.79B	$2.65B	$2.38B	$2.09B	$1.86B	$1.59B
Operating income	$1.65B	$1.46B	$1.77B	$2.10B	$1.81B	$1.89B	$1.26B	−$939.5M	$2.00B	$1.70B	$1.05B	$1.04B	$970.3M	$920.1M	$782.1M	$630.0M	$512.8M	$365.8M
EBITDAderived	$2.30B	$1.99B	$2.17B	$2.46B	$2.53B	$2.57B	$1.91B	−$318.4M	$2.61B	$2.34B	$1.54B	$1.25B	$1.16B	$1.10B	$946.0M	$789.7M	$670.6M	$527.5M
Net income	$1.28B	−$3.03B	−$998.4M	$1.62B	$1.33B	$1.34B	$827.0M	−$1.59B	$1.71B	$896.2M	$282.4M	$599.2M	$596.7M	$619.3M	$488.3M	$397.3M	$320.5M	$229.5M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$6.23	-$14.05	-$4.55	$7.24	$5.83	$5.68	$3.49	-$6.69	$7.24	$3.80	$1.27	$2.91	$2.74	$2.70	$2.03	$1.56	$2.39	$1.69
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$6.22	-$14.03	-$4.54	$7.21	$5.80	$5.65	$3.47	-$6.69	$7.21	$3.78	$1.26	$2.90	$2.72	$2.68	$2.01	$1.55	$2.37	$1.69

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys8$2.31M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)21$250.95M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 24, 2026Form 4	Hilal Paul C +2Director	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share · indirect	2.23M	$111.31	$248.27M	10.48M
Jun 24, 2026Form 4	Hilal Paul C +2Director	SellCash Settled Share Forward Transactions · derivative · indirect	78.7K	—	—	0
Jun 24, 2026Form 4	Hilal Paul C +2Director	SellCash Settled Share Forward Transactions · derivative · indirect	190.2K	—	—	0
Jun 24, 2026Form 4	Hilal Paul C +2Director	SellCash Settled Share Forward Transactions · derivative · indirect	237.3K	—	—	0
Jun 24, 2026Form 4	Hilal Paul C +2Director	SellCash Settled Share Forward Transactions · derivative · indirect	178.6K	—	—	0

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

DOLLAR TREE, INC. (DLTR)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells