FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC (FCX)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive unless high copper prices and the mine recovery both endure.

At $66.49 on August 14, 2026, Freeport's 1.443 billion diluted shares imply about $95.9 billion of market value. Trailing common profit is roughly $2.95 billion, so the shares cost about 33 times recent earnings. Management's 2026 outlook assumes $6.00 copper in the second half: $8.3 billion of operating cash less $4.3 billion of investment leaves about $4.0 billion. That equals only 4.2 cents per dollar of market value. This thin return for a cyclical miner supports an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureProfits are rising again, but cash generation remains highly sensitive to metal prices.

Revenue held near $25.2 billion in 2025, while common profit rose 17% to $2.20 billion. However, operating cash fell 22% to $5.61 billion, and cash left after investment dropped from $2.35 billion to $1.12 billion. The first half of 2026 improved: common profit reached $1.87 billion versus $1.12 billion, despite copper sales falling 28% to 1.37 billion pounds. The offset was a realized copper price of $6.04 versus $4.48. The inference is that earnings can rebound sharply, but their durability still depends heavily on commodity prices.

Business strengthA manageable debt load and steady share count provide useful protection through mining cycles.

Freeport had $4.08 billion of cash and $9.39 billion of debt on June 30, leaving $5.31 billion of debt after cash. Its preferred $2.1 billion measure excludes $3.2 billion tied to Indonesian processing facilities. Current assets of $14.17 billion were more than twice current liabilities of $6.86 billion, providing sound near-term liquidity. During the first half, Freeport paid $434 million of dividends and spent $203 million on buybacks. Diluted shares stayed near 1.443 billion despite $103 million of stock compensation, so dilution was controlled, although buybacks barely reduced the share base.

What could change the storyA full Grasberg recovery supports upside, while another delay would expose optimistic expectations.

The bull case requires copper to remain near today's $6.60 level and Grasberg production to rise from about 65% of capacity in late 2026 to nearly full capacity by the end of 2027. Freeport also targets a 300-million-pound annual production rate from improved leaching. Management estimates every $0.10 change in second-half copper prices changes operating cash by about $150 million. The bear case is concrete: another Grasberg delay or materially cheaper copper would reduce cash quickly. First-half restoration and idle-facility costs already totaled $690 million, leaving little room for disappointment at the current valuation.

$66.49 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter reboundHigher copper prices lifted profit while management kept its cautious Grasberg recovery timetable.

On July 23, 2026, Freeport reported $984 million of common profit, or $0.68 per share. It sold 710 million pounds of copper at an average $6.17 per pound and said the Grasberg ramp-up remained on schedule. The company retained its 3.1-billion-pound 2026 copper-sales forecast and projected $8.3 billion of operating cash at $6.00 copper. Shares closed 2.3% lower that day, although timing alone cannot establish that the report caused the decline.

Grasberg recovery delayedWetter ore slowed the flagship mine's recovery and reduced expected copper output.

On April 23, 2026, Freeport cut Grasberg's expected second-half operating rate to about 65% of capacity from 85% because wet ore required loading-system modifications. It also reduced 2026 copper-sales guidance from 3.4 billion to 3.1 billion pounds and moved near-full recovery toward the end of 2027. Reuters reported shares down 8.4% to $64.40 during afternoon trading and connected the decline to the announcement. The delay reduced near-term volume just as investors were paying for strong copper demand.

Indonesian rights extendedA preliminary government agreement lengthened Grasberg's life but reduced Freeport's future ownership.

On February 18, 2026, Freeport and Indonesia signed a preliminary agreement to extend Grasberg's operating rights for the resource's life. Freeport would retain its 48.76% interest through 2041, then transfer 12 percentage points to government interests and own about 37% from 2042. The amended license still requires government issuance. The valuation inference is mixed: the agreement supports decades of additional production and exploration, but a smaller future ownership share limits how much of that value belongs to Freeport shareholders.

Fatal Grasberg mud rushA deadly underground incident halted major production and exposed Freeport's dependence on one mining district.

Freeport's September 24, 2025 update said about 800,000 metric tons of wet material entered Grasberg on September 8, killing two workers at that stage of the search and suspending district operations. Management warned that 2026 Indonesian production could be about 35% below its earlier plan. Associated Press reported Freeport shares down more than 13% at midday while copper futures rose 3.8%. The event directly damaged Freeport's output, although the resulting global supply reduction partly supported copper prices elsewhere in its portfolio.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$25.19B	$25.17B	$22.70B	$23.27B	$22.42B	$13.89B	$14.35B	$18.95B	$15.89B	$14.56B	$14.61B	$20.00B	$20.92B	$18.01B	$20.88B	—	—	—	—
Operating income	$6.52B	$6.86B	$6.22B	$7.04B	$8.37B	$2.44B	$1.09B	$4.75B	$3.69B	−$2.73B	−$13.51B	−$298.0M	$5.35B	$5.81B	$9.14B	$9.07B	$6.50B	−$12.71B	$6.55B
EBITDAderived	$8.76B	$9.11B	$8.29B	$9.06B	$10.36B	$3.96B	$2.50B	$6.51B	$5.40B	−$119.0M	−$10.02B	$3.56B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	$4.15B	$4.40B	$3.75B	$4.48B	$5.37B	$865.0M	−$189.0M	$2.89B	$2.10B	−$4.03B	−$12.09B	−$745.0M	$3.44B	$3.98B	$5.75B	$5.54B	$3.53B	−$10.45B	$3.78B
Basic EPSper diluted share	—	—	—	—	$2.93	$0.41	-$0.17	$1.79	$1.25	-$3.16	-$11.31	-$1.26	$2.65	$3.20	$4.81	$4.67	$3.05	-$14.86	$8.12
Diluted EPSper diluted share	—	—	—	—	$2.90	$0.41	-$0.17	$1.78	$1.25	-$3.16	-$11.31	-$1.26	$2.64	$3.19	$4.78	$4.57	$2.93	-$14.86	$7.50

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)11$38.59M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 20, 2026Form 4	Higgins Stephen T.EVP & CAO	SellCommon Stock · indirect	29.7K	$63.00	$1.87M	76.4K
Feb 18, 2026Form 4	Mikes Ellie L.Chief Accounting Officer	SellCommon Stock	11.0K	$62.03	$682.3K	40.8K
Feb 13, 2026Form 4	Robertson Maree E.EVP & CFO	SellCommon Stock	48.5K	$61.55	$2.99M	79.9K
Feb 11, 2026Form 4	ADKERSON RICHARD CChairman of the Board	SellCommon Stock	20.1K	$65.21	$1.31M	3.36M
Feb 11, 2026Form 4	ADKERSON RICHARD CChairman of the Board	SellCommon Stock	132.8K	$64.57	$8.58M	3.38M

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC (FCX)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells