COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC (FIX)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price assumes exceptional growth continues, leaving too little room for disappointment.

At 4:05 a.m. Eastern on August 17, FIX was $1,788.67 in pre-market trading. Against trailing earnings of about $40.64 a share, that is roughly 44 times earnings. Trailing free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was about $2.16 billion, implying roughly 29 times cash flow, but an unprecedented $999 million came from the latest quarter. An illustrative 10% return target and a 25-times ending valuation require earnings to grow about 23% yearly for five years. That demanding hurdle supports Overvalued.

Big pictureRecord growth and backlog are real, but today's earnings may be unusually strong.

Revenue rose from $2.86 billion in 2020 to $9.10 billion in 2025, while operating profit rose from 6.7% to 14.4% of sales and net income reached $1.02 billion. Momentum accelerated: first-half 2026 revenue climbed 53% to $6.13 billion, earnings per share doubled to $23.03, and backlog rose 73% year over year to $14.06 billion. However, 92.7% of 2025 revenue was project work, not maintenance, and technology supplied 58% of first-half 2026 sales. That makes peak-like growth less durable than recurring revenue.

Business strengthCash, low debt, and disciplined share counts give the company unusual financial resilience.

At June 2026, Comfort Systems held $1.85 billion of cash against only $54 million of debt, and current assets exceeded current liabilities by $1.02 billion. First-half free cash flow was $1.24 billion, although working-capital timing made the second quarter unusually strong. Capital allocation has not diluted owners: 2025 buybacks were $216 million, dividends $69 million, and shares outstanding fell from 36.19 million in 2020 to 35.20 million. First-half 2026 buybacks slowed to $8 million while dividends totaled $53 million, preserving cash for growth and acquisitions.

What could change the storyData center demand must stay strong while profits and project execution remain near records.

The bull case strengthens if the $14.06 billion backlog converts into sales without losing the recent 17% operating profit rate, while technology customers keep ordering data-center and chip-factory work. The bear case arrives if projects are delayed, canceled, or outgrow scarce skilled labor; agreed-price contracts can also turn estimation mistakes into real losses. The valuation leaves little tolerance: five years of 20% annual earnings growth followed by a still-rich 25-times valuation produces a discounted value below the quote. Sustained backlog growth and normalized cash conversion are the clearest tests.

$1,788.67 price considered

AI: News

Record second quarterSecond-quarter sales, earnings, cash, and backlog hit records, yet the shares fell after the report.

On July 23, 2026, Comfort Systems reported second-quarter revenue of $3.27 billion, up 50%, and earnings of $12.53 a share, up 92%. Backlog reached $14.06 billion, 73% above a year earlier, while free cash flow—cash left after operations and equipment spending—hit $999 million. The next trading day, shares closed 5.3% lower at $1,733.60 despite beating published forecasts. The timing is clear, but it does not prove the report alone caused the decline; high expectations and broader trading may also have mattered.

First-quarter surgeFirst-quarter profit more than doubled as technology work filled the order book, but investors remained demanding.

On April 23, 2026, the company reported first-quarter revenue of $2.87 billion versus $1.83 billion a year earlier. Net income more than doubled to $370.4 million, earnings reached $10.51 a share, and backlog climbed to $12.45 billion from $6.89 billion. The shares closed 2.7% lower the next day, at $1,726.12. That move is not proof of causation, but it showed that extraordinary operating growth was already being judged against unusually high market expectations.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009
Revenue	$9.10B	$7.03B	$5.21B	$4.14B	$3.07B	$2.86B	$2.62B	$2.18B	$1.79B	$1.63B	$1.58B	$1.41B	$1.36B	$1.33B	$1.22B	$1.06B	$1.13B
Gross profit	$2.20B	$1.48B	$990.5M	$741.6M	$563.2M	$547.0M	$501.9M	$446.3M	$366.3M	$344.0M	$318.1M	$249.8M	$239.9M	$207.6M	$181.5M	$189.9M	$225.6M
Operating income	$1.31B	$749.4M	$418.4M	$253.8M	$188.4M	$190.7M	$163.6M	$150.2M	$99.3M	$101.6M	$90.0M	$42.2M	$46.3M	$22.3M	−$42.6M	$31.4M	$56.6M
EBITDAderived	$1.38B	$797.6M	$456.6M	$287.4M	$216.8M	$218.6M	$188.1M	$192.9M	$136.7M	$127.7M	$113.5M	$63.6M	$64.8M	$42.9M	−$22.6M	$48.9M	$70.1M
Net income	$1.02B	$522.4M	$323.4M	$245.9M	$143.3M	$150.1M	$114.3M	$112.9M	$55.3M	$64.9M	$49.4M	$23.1M	$27.3M	$11.8M	−$36.5M	$14.7M	$34.2M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$28.93	$14.64	$9.03	$6.84	$3.95	$4.11	$3.10	$3.03	$1.48	$1.74	$1.32	$0.61	$0.73	$0.36	-$0.99	$0.39	$0.90
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$28.88	$14.60	$9.01	$6.82	$3.93	$4.09	$3.08	$3.00	$1.47	$1.72	$1.30	$0.61	$0.73	$0.36	-$0.99	$0.39	$0.89

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)55$213.59M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 24, 2026Form 4	MYERS FRANKLINDirector	SellCommon Stock	6.7K	$2.0K	$13.09M	62.1K
May 27, 2026Form 4	Hardy Rhoman JDirector	SellCommon Stock	342	$1.9K	$649.8K	1.9K
May 11, 2026Form 4	GEORGE WILLIAM IIICHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	1.0K	$2.0K	$2.02M	32.8K
May 11, 2026Form 4	Shaeff JulieCHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	1.1K	$2.0K	$2.25M	12.6K
May 8, 2026Form 4	GEORGE WILLIAM IIICHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	4.0K	$1.9K	$7.79M	33.8K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC (FIX)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells