Geo Group Inc (GEO)

Price$31.49Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-14 00:33 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive unless the current growth surge becomes a durable earnings step-up.

At the observed market price, management’s 2026 diluted earnings guidance of $1.27-$1.32 per share implies roughly 24 times the midpoint. Using the current equity value, June 2026 net debt, and guided adjusted EBITDA—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, with management adjustments—the business is valued near ten times that measure. Those are demanding multiples for a leveraged contractor with concentrated federal customers, so the valuation requires the 2026 growth step-up to persist into 2027. Investing.com UK The GEO Group, Inc.

Big pictureRevenue is accelerating, but recent cash generation has been too uneven to justify confidence yet.

The supplied SEC-derived history shows why cash durability is the main caution. Free cash flow, meaning cash left after operating and capital spending, was about $164 million in 2024, about negative $125 million in 2025, then roughly $194 million in the first half of 2026. The rebound is encouraging, but 2025 was distorted by federal-shutdown receivables and 2026 benefited as those collections normalized. Revenue growth is real; the cash record is not yet smooth enough to assume the strongest half-year pace is permanent. Pasted text The GEO Group, Inc.

Business strengthDebt is falling and utilization is improving, while customer concentration remains unusually high.

Balance-sheet direction is favorable: total debt fell from about $2.08 billion at year-end 2022 to about $1.61 billion by June 2026, and facility occupancy improved to about 91% from 89% a year earlier. Shares outstanding rose from about 124 million in 2022 to 141 million in mid-2025, then fell to about 132 million after buybacks; GEO had repurchased 10.1 million shares for $177 million by June. The offset is concentration: federal agencies produced 78% of 2025 revenue, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement alone produced 47.6%. The GEO Group, Inc. SEC The GEO Group, Inc.

What could change the storyNew facility ramps could justify the premium, while weak cash conversion would undermine it.

The clearest bull case is successful conversion of recent awards into steady 2027 cash. Big Horn and Rivers are expected to add about $165 million of annual revenue once normalized, with the immigration agency reimbursing reactivation capital spending and start-up costs; management also cited roughly $100 million of annual revenue from two managed-only contracts expected to transition in July 2027. The bear case is simpler: if cash generation falls back near 2024 levels while leverage stays high, today's earnings multiple leaves little margin for execution setbacks or contract changes. The GEO Group, Inc. The GEO Group, Inc.

AI: News

Guidance raised after Q2Second-quarter growth and higher guidance strengthened the outlook, but also raised the delivery bar.

On August 6, GEO reported second-quarter revenue of $732.1 million, up 15% year over year, while net income attributable to operations rose 63% to $47.5 million. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $2.95-$3.05 billion of revenue, $168-$175 million of net income, and $550-$560 million of adjusted EBITDA. This was a meaningful expectations upgrade, but it also makes the valuation more dependent on management delivering the higher second-half run rate. The GEO Group, Inc.

Two immigration contractsTwo five-year immigration contracts add a meaningful new revenue stream beginning around 2027.

On July 13 and July 29, GEO announced five-year contracts to activate the 1,188-bed Big Horn facility and the 1,320-bed Rivers facility for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Management expects about $85 million and $80 million of annual revenue, respectively, in their first full operating years, with reactivation capital spending and start-up costs reimbursed. The awards expand the 2027 revenue base while also increasing exposure to a customer already representing a large share of company revenue. The GEO Group, Inc. The GEO Group, Inc.

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	$2.63B	$2.42B	$2.41B	$2.38B	$2.26B	$2.35B	$2.48B	$2.33B	$2.26B	$2.18B	$1.84B	$1.69B	$1.52B	$1.48B	$1.41B	$1.08B	$1.14B	$1.04B
Gross profit	—	—	$668.9M	$713.8M	$627.6M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	$109.6M	$244.0M	$221.0M
Gross margin	—	—	27.72%	30.03%	27.81%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.10%	21.38%	21.18%
Operating expenses	$1.97B	$1.77B	$1.74B	$1.66B	$1.63B	$1.77B	$1.86B	$1.76B	$1.70B	$1.65B	$1.36B	$1.25B	$1.12B	$1.09B	$1.04B	$811.8M	$897.1M	$106.6M
Operating income	$257.5M	$310.0M	$352.4M	$383.9M	$288.1M	$229.4M	$303.1M	$264.7M	$248.3M	$265.6M	$235.7M	$234.7M	$185.5M	$184.4M	$179.6M	$126.9M	$135.4M	$114.4M
Operating margin	9.78%	12.79%	14.60%	16.15%	12.77%	9.76%	12.23%	11.35%	10.97%	12.19%	12.79%	13.88%	12.19%	12.46%	12.76%	11.70%	11.87%	10.97%
EBITDA	$389.5M	$436.2M	$478.2M	$516.9M	$423.3M	$364.1M	$433.9M	$391.1M	$372.6M	$380.5M	$342.5M	$330.9M	$280.1M	$276.0M	$261.1M	$175.0M	$174.8M	$151.8M
EBITDA margin	14.80%	18.00%	19.82%	21.75%	18.76%	15.49%	17.51%	16.78%	16.46%	17.46%	18.58%	19.56%	18.41%	18.66%	18.56%	16.14%	15.31%	14.55%
Net income	$254.4M	$32.0M	$107.3M	$171.8M	$77.4M	$113.0M	$166.6M	$145.1M	$146.2M	$148.7M	$139.4M	$143.9M	$115.1M	$134.8M	$78.6M	$63.5M	$66.0M	$58.9M
Net profit margin	9.67%	1.32%	4.45%	7.23%	3.43%	4.81%	6.72%	6.22%	6.46%	6.82%	7.56%	8.51%	7.56%	9.11%	5.59%	5.85%	5.78%	5.65%
Basic EPSper basic share	$1.85	$0.23	$0.73	$1.18	$0.59	$0.94	$1.40	$1.21	$1.22	$1.34	$0.84	$1.33	$1.08	$1.47	$0.83	$0.77	$0.87	$0.78
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$1.82	$0.22	$0.72	$1.17	$0.58	$0.94	$1.40	$1.20	$1.21	$1.33	$0.83	$1.32	$1.07	$1.47	$0.82	$0.75	$0.85	$0.76

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

14.60%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.19.31M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of GEO
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	14.60%19.31M shares
Pentwater Capital Management LP	8.00%10.58M shares
UBS Group AG	5.78%7.65M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	5.61%7.43M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.36%5.76M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	4.16%5.5M shares
STATE STREET CORP	3.73%4.94M shares
CONTINENTAL GENERAL INSURANCE CO	3.72%4.93M shares
Rubric Capital Management LP	3.12%4.13M shares
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC	3.03%4.01M shares
ZOLEY GEORGE C	≈3.03%4M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.52%3.33M shares
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.	2.44%3.22M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.37%3.13M shares
Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd	2.01%2.66M shares
COOPER CREEK PARTNERS MANAGEMENT LLC	1.85%2.45M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	1.67%2.21M shares
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP	1.54%2.04M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	1.22%1.62M shares
KCM Capital Inc	1.13%1.5M shares

Percentages use 132.28M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys5$3.07M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)28$10.09M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Mar 4, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	KERNAN SCOTT MICHAELDirector	SellCommon Stock	6.6K	$15.24	$101.1K	27.1K
Sep 10, 2025Form 4	ZOLEY GEORGE CExecutive Chairman	SellCommon Stock	31.2K	$21.52	$670.9K	3.85M
Sep 9, 2025Form 4	ZOLEY GEORGE CExecutive Chairman	SellCommon Stock	31.2K	$20.52	$639.7K	3.88M
Sep 8, 2025Form 4	ZOLEY GEORGE CExecutive Chairman	SellCommon Stock	31.2K	$20.51	$639.4K	3.91M
Sep 5, 2025Form 4/A	ZOLEY GEORGE CExecutive Chairman	SellCommon Stock	31.2K	$21.00	$654.7K	3.94M

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Geo Group Inc (GEO)

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