GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive unless today’s unusually strong profits last for years.

At $1,039.20 in pre-market trading, Goldman is valued near $302.7 billion. The price equals 16.0 times the last four quarters’ $64.79 per-share profit and 2.83 times June’s $367.67 book value, meaning net common shareholder assets per share. The 1.92% dividend yield offers limited support. Under a simplified model assuming shareholders demand 10% annually and long-term growth is 4%, 2.83 times book requires roughly 21% long-run returns on shareholder money—well above management’s mid-teens target. That supports an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureProfits are surging, but trading and deal fees remain strongly cyclical.

Net income rose to $17.18 billion in 2025 from $14.28 billion in 2024 and $8.52 billion in 2023. The first half of 2026 then delivered $12.26 billion and $38.51 per share, including a record second quarter. Yet $15.52 billion of that quarter’s $20.34 billion revenue came from banking and markets; equities trading jumped 72% and investment-banking fees 55%. Operating cash flow swung from positive $8.71 billion in 2022 to negative $45.15 billion in 2025 because bank trading and lending positions move, making earnings, capital, and liquidity better durability measures.

Business strengthA strong franchise and capital cushion support earnings through difficult markets.

Goldman’s standardized common-equity capital ratio was 12.9% in June, 1.5 percentage points above its 11.4% requirement, while average core liquid assets reached $555 billion. These buffers absorb losses and funding stress, although a $2.13 trillion balance sheet still makes confidence crucial. Business quality is also broadening: supervised client assets reached $4.04 trillion, up from $3.29 trillion a year earlier, and quarterly management fees rose 20% to $3.36 billion. Those fees are steadier than trading, while Goldman’s 23-year lead in merger advice supports pricing power and deal flow.

What could change the storyContinued record returns could justify the price, while normalization would expose downside.

Second-quarter return on common shareholder money was 23.5%; sustaining roughly 20% would strengthen the valuation case. Continued deal activity, $4.04 trillion of supervised assets, and NEOS fee growth form the strongest bull case. The bear case is reversion toward management’s mid-teens target, making 2.83 times book difficult to defend. Capital allocation is shareholder-friendly: $9 billion of first-half buybacks, 6% fewer shares since 2024 year-end, and a $5 quarterly dividend. However, $3.45 billion of 2025 stock-based pay absorbed part of the buybacks’ benefit. Returns and book value growth are the key tests.

$1,039.20 price considered

AI: News

Record quarterly earningsRecord trading and stronger dealmaking lifted profit far above expectations, pushing the shares to a new high.

On July 14, 2026, Goldman reported second-quarter revenue of $20.34 billion, net earnings of $6.63 billion, and profit of $20.98 per share, versus $10.91 a year earlier and analysts’ $14.48 estimate. Equities revenue rose 72% to a record $7.42 billion; investment-banking fees rose 55% to $3.40 billion. Market data show the shares closed 9.0% higher at $1,140 after reaching a record. The results raised near-term expectations, though war-related volatility and unusually large deals make this profit rate uncertain.

NEOS acquisition announcedGoldman is paying for faster growth in exchange-traded funds, adding steadier fees but integration risk.

On August 12, 2026, Goldman agreed to acquire NEOS Investments for up to $2.25 billion. NEOS manages about $30 billion in options-based exchange-traded funds, so the deal buys product scale and recurring management fees rather than relying on volatile trading. The price equals roughly 7.5% of acquired client assets, but profitability was not disclosed, leaving the purchase’s eventual return uncertain. Goldman shares gained the next day, but broader market moves prevent confidently attributing that change to the deal alone.

Dividend increase clearedA stable stress-test requirement allowed a bigger dividend, strengthening confidence in capital returns.

On June 24, 2026, Goldman said its stress capital buffer—extra capital required after a simulated recession—would remain 3.4% through September 2027. Its minimum standardized common-equity ratio, measuring highest-quality capital against risk-adjusted assets, therefore remained 11.4%. Goldman planned an 11% quarterly dividend increase from $4.50 to $5.00, 25% above the prior year; the board approved it July 13. Preserving this capital headroom supports dividends and buybacks. No reliable source isolated the announcement’s stock-price effect, so no causal reaction is claimed.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Operating expenses	$37.54B	$33.77B	$34.49B	$31.16B	$31.94B	$28.98B	$24.90B	$23.46B	$20.94B	$20.30B	$25.04B	$22.17B	$22.47B	$22.96B	$22.64B	$26.27B	$25.34B	$19.89B	$28.38B
Net income	$17.18B	$14.28B	$8.52B	$11.26B	$21.64B	$9.46B	$8.47B	$10.46B	$4.29B	$7.40B	$6.08B	$8.48B	$8.04B	$7.47B	$4.44B	$8.35B	$13.38B	$2.32B	$11.60B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$51.95	$41.07	$23.05	$30.42	$60.25	$24.94	$21.18	$25.53	$9.12	$16.53	$12.35	$17.55	$16.34	$14.63	$4.71	$14.15	$23.74	$4.67	$26.34
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$51.32	$40.54	$22.87	$30.06	$59.45	$24.74	$21.03	$25.27	$9.01	$16.29	$12.14	$17.07	$15.46	$14.13	$4.51	$13.18	$22.13	$4.47	$24.73

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys21$3.51M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)244$244.84M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 14, 2026Form 4	COLEMAN DENIS P.Chief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share	1.4K	$975.21	$1.39M	31.1K
May 14, 2026Form 4	COLEMAN DENIS P.Chief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share	1.4K	$974.53	$1.33M	32.5K
May 14, 2026Form 4	COLEMAN DENIS P.Chief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share	1.6K	$973.19	$1.52M	33.9K
May 14, 2026Form 4	COLEMAN DENIS P.Chief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share	2.5K	$972.29	$2.44M	35.4K
May 6, 2026Form 4	Ruemmler Kathryn H.Chief Legal Officer, GC	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share	120	$941.25	$113.0K	15.7K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS)

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Insider buys & sells