HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (HIG)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Undervalued

Price checkThe shares look inexpensive even after allowing for softer insurance profits.

At $138.02, the August 14 close, the stock costs 10.4 times 2025 diluted earnings of $13.32 and about 9.6 times trailing core earnings of $14.35 per share. Core earnings remove unusual items and better reflect ongoing insurance performance. It also trades at 1.75 times June book value excluding unrealized investment swings of $78.91. A simple model using a 10% required return and 4% long-run growth implies today’s price discounts a sustained return on shareholder capital near 14.5%, below the recent 18.7%. That gap supports Undervalued, with cyclical caveats.

Big pictureEarnings and cash have grown, but insurance results will remain uneven.

Net income rose from $1.74 billion in 2020 to $3.84 billion in 2025, while diluted earnings per share climbed from $4.76 to $13.32. Operating cash flow increased from $3.87 billion to $5.92 billion; after $169 million of capital spending, 2025 cash left after running and investing in the business was about $5.75 billion. In the first half of 2026, net income grew 33% year over year to $2.15 billion, but operating cash flow slipped 2% to $2.23 billion. Claims timing makes insurer cash flow uneven, so this durability is not guaranteed.

Business strengthStrong underwriting and a sturdier balance sheet support continued shareholder returns.

Business Insurance and Personal Insurance posted second-quarter combined ratios of 91.4 and 90.1; below 100 means premiums exceeded claims and operating costs. June equity was $19.63 billion, up 19% from December 2024, while debt stayed near $4.37 billion, only 22% of equity. Hartford spent $1.62 billion on buybacks and $592 million on dividends in 2025, far above $141 million of stock compensation. First-half 2026 buybacks reached $916 million, and estimated diluted shares fell roughly 4% year over year. However, repurchasing above book value reduces book value per remaining share.

What could change the storyReserve surprises or weaker pricing could erase the apparent valuation discount.

The bull case strengthens if premium increases keep outrunning claim inflation: Personal Insurance’s underlying combined ratio improved to 86.3, and Small Business premiums grew 7%. The bear case is concrete: Business Insurance’s underlying loss ratio worsened to 58.3 from 57.0, reserves increased for general liability and commercial auto, and the Employee Benefits disability loss ratio rose 6.3 points. Storms add volatility; the 2025 California wildfires alone cost $325 million after reinsurance. Sustained core returns on shareholder capital above 15% support the thesis; repeated reserve charges or a fall below 14% would weaken it.

$138.02 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter earnings beatQuarterly profit beat forecasts, but reserve concerns and one-time tax help made quality mixed.

On July 23, 2026, Hartford reported second-quarter core earnings of $945 million, or $3.42 a share, up 1% and 6% respectively; the per-share result beat the $3.16 consensus shown by MarketBeat. Net earnings of $4.68 included a $251 million tax benefit tied to Hartford Funds, so they overstate recurring progress. Business and Personal Insurance combined ratios were both near 90, but liability reserve additions and weaker disability claims complicated the beat. Shares closed 1.2% lower on July 24; linking that move solely to results remains uncertain.

Larger buyback approvedThe new repurchase plan could materially shrink shares if Hartford executes near current prices.

On July 23, 2026, the board authorized $4.2 billion of repurchases effective August 1 through year-end 2028, 27% larger than the prior authorization. That equals roughly 11% of the current $38 billion market value, so execution near today’s price could meaningfully lift each remaining share’s claim on earnings. Hartford had already returned $615 million during the quarter through buybacks and dividends. The authorization is not a commitment, and purchases above book value can dilute book value per share.

Hartford Funds saleThe fund sale unlocks cash, though most proceeds depend on future business performance.

On June 3, 2026, Hartford agreed to sell Hartford Funds to Wellington Management. Hartford estimates $1.9 billion of present value: $300 million at the expected first-quarter 2027 close, then 95% of specified after-tax cash generated by the combined business for about seven years. That can fund insurance growth and repurchases while removing a non-core operation, but most value is contingent on future performance and approvals. Shares fell 1.0% that day; market timing alone does not prove the sale caused the move.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$1.51B	$1.46B	$1.38B	$1.42B	$1.57B	$1.36B	$1.40B	$18.38B	$18.61B	$20.67B	$22.09B	$21.73B	$22.05B	$24.43B	$9.22B	$25.92B
Operating expenses	—	—	—	—	—	—	$4.58B	$3.77B	$4.03B	$4.18B	$5.09B	$5.27B	$5.33B	$4.37B	—	—
Operating income	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	$2.26B	−$1.73B	−$4.59B	$4.00B
EBITDAderived	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	$2.86B	−$1.26B	−$4.23B	$4.80B
Net income	$3.84B	$3.11B	$2.50B	$1.82B	$2.37B	$1.74B	$2.08B	$1.68B	$798.0M	$176.0M	−$38.0M	$712.0M	$1.64B	−$887.0M	−$2.75B	$2.95B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$13.51	$10.51	$8.09	$5.54	$6.73	$4.79	$5.72	$4.05	$1.81	$0.37	-$0.18	$1.51	$2.60	-$2.93	-$8.99	$9.32
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$13.32	$10.35	$7.97	$5.46	$6.64	$4.76	$5.66	$3.96	$1.73	$0.36	-$0.17	$1.40	$2.40	-$2.93	-$8.99	$9.24

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)56$119.41M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 27, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	TOOKER ADIN MPresident	SellCommon Stock	8.9K	$135.13	$1.20M	38.2K
Mar 10, 2026Form 4	Rodden Lori AExecutive Vice President	SellCommon Stock	30.2K	$138.04	$4.17M	25.4K
Mar 10, 2026Form 4	Rodden Lori AExecutive Vice President	SellCommon Stock	10.5K	$138.06	$1.45M	55.6K
Mar 4, 2026Form 4	Niderno Allison GSVP & Controller	SellCommon Stock	701.58	$140.52	$98.6K	622.16
Feb 26, 2026Form 4	Niderno Allison GSVP & Controller	SellCommon Stock	374.92	$141.97	$53.2K	622.16

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (HIG)

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Insider buys & sells