Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)

Price$7.68Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-06 00:27 UTC

AI: Undervalued

Price checkThe shares look undervalued if cash generation survives the debt-funded expansion.

With roughly 195 million shares, the quote implies about $1.36 billion of equity value. Against management’s $105 million–$115 million 2026 free-cash-flow outlook—cash left after running and investing in the business—that is roughly 12 times the midpoint, an 8% yield. Adding estimated post-deal net debt produces a business value near $2.34 billion, about eight times the $285 million adjusted EBITDA outlook, a cash-like operating-profit measure. That looks undervalued, provided Kanebridge contributes and cash flow does not retreat toward 2025’s $35 million.

Big pictureProfit improved sharply, but cash history remains uneven and tied to repair spending.

Revenue barely moved from 2022 through 2024, then rose 5.4% in 2025. Operating income climbed from $39.9 million in 2022 to $114.0 million in 2025, while net income turned from losses into $40.3 million. First-half 2026 sales rose 6.6%, yet net income was only $16.4 million, barely above $15.5 million. Free cash flow swung from about $172 million in 2023 to $98 million in 2024 and $35 million in 2025. Home-repair demand and tariff-driven inventory needs leave durability not fully proven.

Business strengthStrong retail service and stable share count are offset by heavy debt and weak asset backing.

Direct-to-store distribution, more than 1,200 field associates, and 111,000 products can create retailer switching friction, although Home Depot and Lowe’s supplied 43.4% of 2025 sales. Current assets of $669.8 million comfortably covered $246.8 million of current liabilities, and refinancing pushed major maturities to 2031–2033. Yet the mostly debt-funded Kanebridge deal was expected to raise debt relative to adjusted operating earnings from 2.4 times to roughly 3.4 times. Intangible assets exceeded $1.34 billion, more than equity. Buybacks reduced shares to 194.8 million, partly offsetting stock compensation.

What could change the storyDeal success could unlock value, while stalled margins or cash would expose the debt.

Strongest bull case: Kanebridge broadens distribution and the key-copying unit sustains its 11% second-quarter growth, while Hillman delivers the $105 million–$115 million cash outlook. Strongest bear case: second-quarter adjusted operating margin fell to 17.4% from 18.7%, and one-third of sourcing comes from China, leaving pricing exposed to tariffs. The valuation assumes price increases stick, major retail relationships remain stable, and leverage falls. Evidence improves if annual free cash flow stays above $100 million and debt declines; it weakens if margins remain below 17% or debt stays near post-acquisition levels.

AI: News

Stronger quarter, higher outlookSales and cash improved sharply, but flat adjusted earnings per share showed margin pressure.

On August 3, Hillman reported second-quarter sales of $442.3 million, up 9.8%, and net income of $21.1 million versus $15.8 million. Free cash flow—cash remaining after operations and capital spending—rose to $70.2 million from $31.2 million. However, adjusted earnings per share stayed at $0.17, while adjusted operating margin fell to 17.4% from 18.7%. Management raised its 2026 outlook to approximately $285 million of adjusted operating earnings, supporting higher expectations despite the margin decline.

Kanebridge acquisition closesThe acquisition adds an industrial channel, while debt funding raises integration stakes.

Hillman completed the acquisition on August 28 and announced it on September 3. The approximately $315 million purchase added more than 44,000 fastener products and Hillman’s first United States master-distribution platform for industrial customers. Funding included cash, revolving-credit borrowings, and a new $200 million term loan. Management previously estimated the transaction would add roughly one full turn of leverage. Cross-selling and sourcing savings could lift value, but those benefits remain expectations rather than reported results.

Debt maturities extendedLonger loan maturities reduce refinancing risk, but floating rates preserve a sizable interest burden.

On July 22, Hillman closed a $735 million term loan maturing in 2033 and a $375 million asset-backed revolving facility maturing in 2031. The term loan costs the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, a floating benchmark, plus two percentage points; the revolver costs that benchmark plus 1.25 points. Proceeds refinanced existing facilities without lowering their pricing. The longer timetable improves near-term financial flexibility, although floating interest costs and the later Kanebridge borrowing limit the balance-sheet benefit.

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Revenue

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$1.55B	$1.47B	$1.48B	$1.49B	$1.43B	$1.37B	$1.21B
Gross profit	$756.3M	$707.9M	$647.5M	$639.8M	$566.4M	$586.5M	$520.5M
Gross margin	48.73%	48.07%	43.86%	43.04%	39.72%	42.86%	42.86%
Research & development	$1.4M	$1.3M	$2.6M	$2.3M	$2.4M	$2.9M	$2.1M
Operating expenses	$642.4M	$619.1M	$586.6M	$599.9M	$556.1M	$520.7M	$520.5M
Operating income	$114.0M	$88.8M	$60.9M	$39.9M	$10.3M	$65.8M	$0
Operating margin	7.34%	6.03%	4.13%	2.68%	0.72%	4.81%	0.00%
EBITDA	$255.1M	$218.8M	$182.6M	$159.9M	$131.0M	$192.7M	$124.6M
EBITDA margin	16.43%	14.86%	12.37%	10.76%	9.19%	14.08%	10.26%
Net income	$40.3M	$17.3M	−$9.6M	−$16.4M	−$38.3M	−$24.5M	$0
Net profit margin	2.60%	1.17%	−0.65%	−1.11%	−2.69%	−1.79%	0.00%
Basic EPSper basic share	$0.20	$0.09	-$0.05	-$0.08	-$0.28	-$0.27	-$0.96
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.20	$0.09	-$0.05	-$0.08	-$0.28	-$0.27	-$0.96

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈9.09%of listed shares

FMR LLC17.71M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of HLMN
Holder	% owned
FMR LLC	≈9.09%17.71M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	≈7.61%14.83M shares
KAYNE ANDERSON RUDNICK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC	≈5.87%11.44M shares
REINHART PARTNERS, LLC.	≈5.73%11.16M shares
BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/	≈5.29%10.3M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	≈5.23%10.2M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	≈4.59%8.94M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	≈4.47%8.71M shares
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	≈4.41%8.59M shares
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.	≈4.09%7.98M shares
Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC	≈3.15%6.14M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	≈3.03%5.9M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	≈2.71%5.29M shares
STATE STREET CORP	≈2.44%4.75M shares
NEUBERGER BERMAN GROUP LLC	≈2.07%4.04M shares
BARROW HANLEY MEWHINNEY & STRAUSS LLC	≈1.83%3.57M shares
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/	≈1.70%3.31M shares
GW&K Investment Management, LLC	≈1.56%3.04M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	≈1.50%2.92M shares
ANCHOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC	≈1.32%2.57M shares

Percentages use 194.8M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 27, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$992.6K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)6$1.27M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Mar 10, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Moore Scott KelleyDiv. Pres. - Robo. and Digital	SellCommon Stock	1.5K	$8.29	$12.0K	108.2K
Mar 10, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Kitzberger AmandaChief Leg. Offic. & Secretary	SellCommon Stock	11.8K	$8.29	$97.9K	72.6K
Aug 8, 2025Form 4	Parker Aaron JerrodChief People Offic.	SellCommon Stock	4.5K	$9.86	$44.7K	56.6K
May 1, 2025Form 4	Kraft Robert O.CFO and Treasurer	BuyCommon Stock	140.0K	$7.09	$992.6K	632.8K
Feb 20, 2025Form 4	Ride ScottPresident, Hillman Canada	SellCommon Stock	12.4K	$10.06	$124.3K	48.2K