Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)

Price$312.13Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-25 02:29 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Big pictureGrowth remains solid, but cash flow is not accelerating as quickly as accounting profit.

The supplied SEC-derived history shows 2025 revenue rose 7.7% and operating income 13.6%, while net income slipped 5.1%. In the first half of 2026, revenue rose 7.6% and net income 17.2% year over year, but operating cash flow fell 1.8%. Free cash flow, meaning operating cash after property capital spending, was essentially flat at about $1.07 billion. That mix is healthy but not strong enough by itself to make a near-49-times trailing earnings multiple look inexpensive. Pasted text

Business strengthHilton’s fee-heavy model, global brands, pipeline, and buybacks support durable per-share growth.

Hilton is capital-light: 2025 property capital expenditures were only $101 million against $2.13 billion of operating cash flow. Q2 2026 system-wide RevPAR rose 3.9%; RevPAR means room revenue per available room and captures occupancy and pricing. The development pipeline reached 541,300 rooms, up 6%, while net unit growth was 6.1%. Shares outstanding fell about 6.7% from year-end 2024 to Q2 2026; first-half buybacks of about $1.79 billion substantially exceeded $106 million of stock compensation, more than offsetting dilution.

What could change the storyFaster room growth can justify the premium, while travel weakness or leverage can compress it.

The bull case is RevPAR above 3.5%, sustained 6%-7% unit growth and adjusted EBITDA beating guidance, letting high-margin franchise fees compound while buybacks shrink shares. The bear case is cyclical travel weakness, geopolitical disruption or higher financing costs. Total debt rose about 20% from year-end 2024 to $12.72 billion by Q2 2026, versus $1.01 billion cash, while stockholders’ equity was negative $6.30 billion. Buybacks of $3.18 billion in 2025 exceeded roughly $2.03 billion free cash flow. With 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint near $8.95, 30 times implies about $269, 35 times $313, and 40 times $358.

Price checkThe shares trade at a steep multiple of current earnings and cash generation.

At the $334.50 after-hours quote on August 19, 2026, versus a $334.73 regular close, trailing diluted EPS is about $6.81, so the stock trades near 49 times earnings. Trailing operating cash flow less property capital expenditures is about $2.03 billion, implying roughly 37 times free cash flow. Using about $11.7 billion of net debt, meaning debt minus cash, enterprise value—equity value plus net debt—is roughly 21.5 times 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA excludes interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and certain items. Those multiples support an Overvalued verdict.

AI: News

Q2 outlook liftedHilton raised 2026 RevPAR guidance, while softer third-quarter earnings guidance coincided with a negative stock reaction.

On July 28, Hilton reported Q2 revenue of $3.34 billion, net income of $482 million, adjusted EPS of $2.29 and system-wide RevPAR growth of 3.9%. It raised full-year RevPAR growth guidance to 3.0%-3.5% and adjusted EPS to $8.89-$9.01. Reuters reported shares fell about 4% as Q3 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.28-$2.34 missed the $2.42 analyst view; that attribution is plausible, not provably exclusive.

Pipeline and capital returnsRoom growth stayed strong while large buybacks continued alongside a higher debt load.

The July 28 release said Hilton’s development pipeline reached 541,300 rooms, up 6% year over year, and Q2 net unit growth was 6.1%. Hilton repurchased 2.9 million shares in the quarter and projected about $3.5 billion of 2026 capital returns. The same release noted a $1.0 billion 5.5% senior-note issuance due 2031, underscoring that aggressive shareholder returns are occurring with meaningful leverage rather than a debt-free balance sheet.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012
Revenue	$12.04B	$11.17B	$10.23B	$8.77B	$5.79B	$4.31B	$9.45B	$8.91B	$8.13B	$6.58B	$7.13B	$10.50B	$9.73B	$9.28B
Operating expenses	$9.35B	$8.81B	$8.01B	$6.68B	$4.77B	$4.72B	—	$7.47B	$7.00B	$5.72B	—	$8.83B	$8.63B	$8.18B
Operating income	$2.69B	$2.37B	$2.23B	$2.09B	$1.01B	−$418.0M	$1.66B	$1.43B	$1.13B	$868.0M	$900.0M	$1.67B	$1.10B	$1.10B
Operating margin	22.37%	21.21%	21.74%	23.87%	17.45%	−9.71%	17.53%	16.08%	13.92%	13.20%	12.62%	15.93%	11.32%	11.86%
EBITDA	$2.87B	$2.52B	$2.37B	$2.26B	$1.20B	−$87.0M	$2.00B	$1.76B	$1.47B	$1.22B	$1.28B	$2.30B	$1.71B	$1.65B
EBITDA margin	23.84%	22.52%	23.18%	25.72%	20.70%	−2.02%	21.19%	19.73%	18.05%	18.57%	18.01%	21.91%	17.51%	17.79%
Net income	$1.46B	$1.53B	$1.14B	$1.25B	$410.0M	−$715.0M	$881.0M	$764.0M	$1.08B	$338.0M	$1.40B	$673.0M	$415.0M	$352.0M
Net profit margin	12.10%	13.74%	11.15%	14.31%	7.08%	−16.60%	9.32%	8.58%	13.33%	5.14%	19.68%	6.41%	4.26%	3.79%
Basic EPSper basic share	$6.18	$6.20	$4.36	$4.56	$1.47	-$2.58	$3.07	$2.53	$3.34	$1.03	$4.27	$2.05	$1.35	$1.14
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$6.12	$6.14	$4.33	$4.53	$1.46	-$2.58	$3.04	$2.50	$3.32	$1.03	$4.26	$2.05	$1.35	$1.14

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

8.41%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.18.98M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of HLT
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	8.41%18.98M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	6.59%14.88M shares
FMR LLC	4.98%11.24M shares
STATE STREET CORP	4.30%9.7M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	3.48%7.86M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	3.37%7.62M shares
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC	2.59%5.84M shares
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC	2.51%5.67M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.43%5.48M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	2.32%5.25M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	1.95%4.4M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	1.86%4.19M shares
NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J	≈1.60%3.61M shares
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/	1.49%3.36M shares
JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC	1.43%3.23M shares
Invesco Ltd.	1.26%2.84M shares
NORGES BANK	1.14%2.57M shares
Nuveen, LLC	1.13%2.54M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.04%2.34M shares
MARSHALL WACE, LLP	1.03%2.32M shares

Percentages use 225.7M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$1.01M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)10$61.54M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 17, 2026Form 4	NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER JSee Remarks	SellCommon Stock	9.4K	$319.30	$2.99M	36.4K
Feb 17, 2026Form 4	NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER JSee Remarks	SellCommon Stock	27.4K	$318.37	$8.72M	45.8K
Feb 17, 2026Form 4	NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER JSee Remarks	SellCommon Stock	47.1K	$317.36	$14.96M	73.2K
Feb 17, 2026Form 4	NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER JSee Remarks	SellCommon Stock	30.4K	$316.27	$9.62M	120.3K
Aug 21, 2025Form 4	Silcock Christopher WSee Remarks	SellCommon Stock	11.9K	$269.40	$3.21M	79.5K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)

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